TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Myroslav Loboda vs Volodymyr Kaidakov 2-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 1Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
311911114119911
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:59 and never touched: 54.1% is still 54.1%
Graded at full timeVolodymyr Kaidakov to win
54.1%
54.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingMyroslav Loboda above · Volodymyr Kaidakov below
Set 1 · 3-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-4
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 9-11
Point 89 set 5, 9-11 · our read held Volodymyr Kaidakov at 54.1%
89 points played in total.
H2H Myroslav Loboda 41–70 Volodymyr Kaidakov Myroslav Loboda has won 41 of their 111 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 23:5954.1%Our read57.9%to break even at 1.727
short by 3.8pp57.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.727 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Kaidakov
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
41-70 in 111
Kaidakov
Correct
gap of 29 in 111, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Loboda 1715 vs Kaidakov 1662
Loboda
Wrong
both rated, 52 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Loboda 60% vs Kaidakov 20%
Loboda
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Loboda 50% vs Kaidakov 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Loboda +1 · Kaidakov +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Kaidakov) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kaidakov form (20%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLoboda 2.00 / Kaidakov 1.727
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Kaidakov)-3.8pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13219091
Loboda2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog47% won 81 of 174
Down 0–1, comes back17% 14 of 81
Down 0–2, comes back2% 1 of 42
Kaidakov1.73
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite55% won 60 of 110
Up 2–0, closes it87% 26 of 30
Up 1–0, closes it74% 50 of 68
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeLoboda6wins
AwayKaidakov4wins
2 of 10 to a deciderLoboda leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLoboda100%6 of 6
AwayKaidakov100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Loboda6Kaidakov4n = 10Loboda took 6 of 10
S2Loboda5Kaidakov5n = 10split evenly
S3Loboda6Kaidakov4n = 10Loboda took 6 of 10
S4Loboda4Kaidakov3n = 7Loboda took 4 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricLobodaKaidakovL − KBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match38.435.4+3.0per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLobodaKaidakovBasisWin rate · lifetime492 / 954 vs 273 / 51451.6%53.1%492 / 954 vs 273 / 514Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.639.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KaidakovLoboda 2.00/Kaidakov 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.1%
Kaidakov · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Kaidakov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 14 · 05:05M. Loboda388111091V. Kaidakov4011612113
WAug 13 · 17:05M. Loboda47118116113V. Kaidakov4591171172
WAug 13 · 00:30M. Loboda4211614113V. Kaidakov365111281
WAug 11 · 01:15M. Loboda3911116113V. Kaidakov29941151
LAug 9 · 20:45M. Loboda229760V. Kaidakov331111113
WAug 7 · 08:35M. Loboda331111113V. Kaidakov207580
LAug 6 · 17:05M. Loboda55159111192V. Kaidakov57171199113
LAug 6 · 00:30M. Loboda333118111V. Kaidakov4311811133
WJun 19 · 10:35M. Loboda351113113V. Kaidakov2031160
WJun 18 · 16:05M. Loboda4011711113V. Kaidakov31411791
M. Loboda10
WOct 1 · 01:00M. Loboda1.61121188123D. Shchegelskyi2.201091111102WSep 30 · 22:30M. Loboda2.3871311113R. Konkulovskyi1.531111451LSep 30 · 20:30M. Loboda1.8381260V. Krokhmal1.831114113LSep 29 · 02:15I. Hrekh2.2011411113M. Loboda1.61411481WSep 29 · 01:15M. Loboda2.0011811113O. Rodin1.73911871WSep 29 · 00:15M. Loboda1.8381111153V. Krokhmal1.831176131LSep 28 · 22:45M. Loboda2.3891211582R. Konkulovskyi1.531110611113LSep 28 · 20:45M. Loboda1.678760V. Slozka2.101111113WSep 25 · 10:35I. Hrekh2.207960M. Loboda1.611111113LSep 25 · 09:35M. Loboda1.6161171182V. Slozka2.20119117113
V. Kaidakov10
WSep 30 · 22:00D. Shchegelskyi2.257911111V. Kaidakov1.5711118133LSep 30 · 20:00Y. Vorsuliak1.83118911143V. Kaidakov1.83511114122LAug 14 · 11:35D. Shchegelskyi2.381011167193V. Kaidakov1.531281411172LAug 14 · 10:05V. Kaidakov1.671110941O. Pohonov2.1091211113LAug 14 · 08:05G. Kuzmenko1.9112114113V. Kaidakov1.801071161LAug 14 · 06:05I. Hrekh2.001111113V. Kaidakov1.737380WAug 14 · 05:05M. Loboda2.108111091V. Kaidakov1.6711612113WAug 13 · 19:05V. Kaidakov1.8311119113Y. Vorsuliak1.83941191LAug 13 · 17:05M. Loboda2.10118116113V. Kaidakov1.6791171172WAug 13 · 15:05I. Hrekh1.80116861V. Kaidakov1.9171111113
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