TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Maksym Khomenko vs Dmytro Shchegelskyi 0-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 3Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
711711911––––
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:14 and never touched: 56.5% is still 56.5%
Graded at full timeDmytro Shchegelskyi to win
56.5%
56.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
RightSent to Pro: Dmytro Shchegelskyi @ 1.61 · Won
How it is goingMaksym Khomenko above · Dmytro Shchegelskyi below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Point 56 set 3, 9-11 · our read held Dmytro Shchegelskyi at 56.5%
56 points played in total.
H2H Maksym Khomenko 21–57 Dmytro Shchegelskyi Maksym Khomenko has won 21 of their 78 meetings.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 20:1456.5%Our read61.9%to break even at 1.615
short by 5.4pp61.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.615 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Shchegelskyi
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
21-57 in 78
Shchegelskyi
Correct
gap of 36 in 78, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Khomenko 1640 vs Shchegelskyi 1550
Khomenko
Wrong
both rated, 91 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Khomenko 40% vs Shchegelskyi 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Khomenko 60% vs Shchegelskyi 30%
Khomenko
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Khomenko +1 · Shchegelskyi -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent, and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 57% · Slight lean (leans Shchegelskyi) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Shchegelskyi form (40%) is below what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKhomenko 2.20 / Shchegelskyi 1.615
Signal prob.44% / 57%
Edge (Shchegelskyi)-5.4pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13234862
Khomenko2.20
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 5 days ago (Sep 28)
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog40% won 64 of 159
Down 0–1, comes back29% 29 of 100
Down 0–2, comes back15% 10 of 66
Shchegelskyi1.61
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Oct 01)
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite57% won 82 of 143
Up 2–0, closes it93% 28 of 30
Up 1–0, closes it75% 53 of 71
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKhomenko3wins
AwayShchegelskyi7wins
6 of 10 to a deciderShchegelskyi leads 7–3, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKhomenko20%1 of 5
AwayShchegelskyi60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Khomenko5Shchegelskyi5n = 10split evenly
S2Khomenko6Shchegelskyi4n = 10Khomenko took 6 of 10
S3Khomenko3Shchegelskyi7n = 10Shchegelskyi took 7 of 10
S4Khomenko4Shchegelskyi5n = 9Shchegelskyi took 5 of 9
S5Khomenko1Shchegelskyi3n = 4Shchegelskyi took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricKhomenkoShchegelskyiK − SBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match41.441.2+0.2per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKhomenkoShchegelskyiBasisWin rate · lifetime456 / 835 vs 459 / 90754.6%50.6%456 / 835 vs 459 / 907Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.539.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
ShchegelskyiKhomenko 2.20/Shchegelskyi 1.61
Hit
What we said
56.5%
Shchegelskyi · sealed before the serve
Sent to Pro: Dmytro Shchegelskyi @ 1.61 · Won
What happened
0–3
Shchegelskyi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
LSep 28 · 09:35M. Khomenko4914116992D. Shchegelskyi491241111113
WSep 27 · 01:00M. Khomenko331111113D. Shchegelskyi188730
LSep 20 · 00:00M. Khomenko31113891D. Shchegelskyi3851111113
LSep 18 · 05:35M. Khomenko26115281D. Shchegelskyi4071111113
LSep 17 · 16:35M. Khomenko4551191192D. Shchegelskyi40114113113
LSep 7 · 08:05M. Khomenko4815115982D. Shchegelskyi541381111113
WSep 6 · 14:35M. Khomenko49911711113D. Shchegelskyi3711611542
LAug 2 · 17:05M. Khomenko50111612111D. Shchegelskyi54131810133
M. Khomenko10
WSep 28 · 10:35Y. Parahailo3.75114681M. Khomenko1.2541111113LSep 28 · 09:35M. Khomenko2.2514116992D. Shchegelskyi1.571241111113WSep 28 · 08:35M. Khomenko1.671111113O. Storozhenko2.107550LSep 28 · 07:05M. Khomenko1.4487111192Y. Tebenko2.63111143113LSep 28 · 05:05M. Khomenko2.2511116282Y. Vorsuliak1.57841111113WSep 27 · 18:35M. Khomenko1.2511115113Y. Parahailo3.75281181WSep 27 · 16:35R. Novak1.80111111972M. Khomenko1.91771311113WSep 27 · 15:35M. Khomenko2.501113143Y. Vorsuliak1.50811120WSep 27 · 14:35Y. Kolos4.338460M. Khomenko1.201111113LSep 27 · 13:05M. Khomenko2.3864111112D. Shchegelskyi1.5311117943
D. Shchegelskyi10
WOct 3 · 21:30Y. Tebenko2.1081060D. Shchegelskyi1.671112113LOct 1 · 19:05D. Shchegelskyi2.508880V. Krokhmal1.501111113WOct 1 · 17:05M. Loboda1.61121111592D. Shchegelskyi2.20148411113LOct 1 · 15:05Y. Vorsuliak1.5711311143D. Shchegelskyi2.258118121WOct 1 · 14:05D. Shchegelskyi2.25714113113V. Kaidakov1.57111271192LOct 1 · 13:05A. Nazrin1.36147117113D. Shchegelskyi3.00121171172LOct 1 · 03:00D. Shchegelskyi2.3891111982V. Krokhmal1.53116611113LOct 1 · 01:00M. Loboda1.61121188123D. Shchegelskyi2.201091111102WSep 28 · 09:35M. Khomenko2.2514116992D. Shchegelskyi1.571241111113WSep 27 · 13:05M. Khomenko2.3864111112D. Shchegelskyi1.5311117943
Upcoming Matches
M. Khomenko
Oct 3 · 22:30M. Khomenko1.61V. Kovalchuk2.20—Oct 4 · 00:00M. Khomenko1.25Y. Parahailo3.75—Oct 4 · 01:00M. Khomenko1.50O. Storozhenko2.50—Oct 4 · 02:00M. Khomenko1.44Y. Tebenko2.63—Oct 4 · 14:35M. Khomenko1.80R. Novak1.91—Oct 4 · 16:05M. Khomenko1.50O. Storozhenko2.50—Oct 4 · 17:05M. Khomenko2.20D. Shchegelskyi1.61—Oct 4 · 18:05M. Khomenko1.25Y. Parahailo3.75—
D. Shchegelskyi
Oct 3 · 23:30D. Shchegelskyi1.61V. Kovalchuk2.20—Oct 4 · 01:30D. Shchegelskyi2.00Y. Parahailo1.73—Oct 4 · 03:00D. Shchegelskyi1.83O. Storozhenko1.83—Oct 4 · 14:05D. Shchegelskyi2.00O. Storozhenko1.73—Oct 4 · 15:05D. Shchegelskyi2.00Y. Parahailo1.73—Oct 4 · 17:05D. Shchegelskyi1.61M. Khomenko2.20—Oct 4 · 19:05D. Shchegelskyi1.61V. Kovalchuk2.20—
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.