TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Dmytro Shchegelskyi vs Volodymyr Kaidakov 3-2 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 1Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
7111412117311119
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:59 and never touched: 59.3% is still 59.3%
Graded at full timeVolodymyr Kaidakov to win
59.3%
59.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingDmytro Shchegelskyi above · Volodymyr Kaidakov below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 14-12
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 3-11
Set 5 · 11-9
Point 96 set 5, 11-9 · our read held Volodymyr Kaidakov at 59.3%
96 points played in total.
H2H Dmytro Shchegelskyi 6–10 Volodymyr Kaidakov Dmytro Shchegelskyi has won 6 of their 16 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:5959.3%Our read63.7%to break even at 1.571
short by 4.4pp63.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.571 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Kaidakov
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
6-10 in 16
Kaidakov
Wrong
gap of 4 in 16, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Shchegelskyi 1538 vs Kaidakov 1683
Kaidakov
Wrong
both rated, 146 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Shchegelskyi 20% vs Kaidakov 80%
Kaidakov
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Shchegelskyi 40% vs Kaidakov 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Shchegelskyi -3 · Kaidakov +2
Shchegelskyi
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% · Slight lean (leans Kaidakov) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kaidakov form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsShchegelskyi 2.25 / Kaidakov 1.571
Signal prob.41% / 59%
Edge (Kaidakov)-4.4pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13224050
Shchegelskyi2.25
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog35% won 60 of 171
Down 0–1, comes back20% 22 of 109
Down 0–2, comes back7% 4 of 62
Kaidakov1.57
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite54% won 59 of 110
Up 2–0, closes it87% 26 of 30
Up 1–0, closes it73% 49 of 67
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeShchegelskyi4wins
AwayKaidakov6wins
4 of 10 to a deciderKaidakov leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeShchegelskyin = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayKaidakov75%6 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Shchegelskyi2Kaidakov8n = 10Kaidakov took 8 of 10
S2Shchegelskyi4Kaidakov6n = 10Kaidakov took 6 of 10
S3Shchegelskyi7Kaidakov3n = 10Shchegelskyi took 7 of 10
S4Shchegelskyi4Kaidakov4n = 8split evenly
S5Shchegelskyi2Kaidakov2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricShchegelskyiKaidakovS − KBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match41.041.7−0.7per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricShchegelskyiKaidakovBasisWin rate · lifetime457 / 903 vs 276 / 51850.6%53.3%457 / 903 vs 276 / 518Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.039.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KaidakovShchegelskyi 2.25/Kaidakov 1.57
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
59.3%
Kaidakov · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Shchegelskyi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 30 · 22:00D. Shchegelskyi387911111V. Kaidakov4311118133
WAug 14 · 11:35D. Shchegelskyi631011167193V. Kaidakov621281411172
WAug 12 · 21:00D. Shchegelskyi4111611133V. Kaidakov387119111
LAug 10 · 21:15D. Shchegelskyi2210570V. Kaidakov341211113
WAug 9 · 23:45D. Shchegelskyi331111113V. Kaidakov171970
LAug 5 · 23:30D. Shchegelskyi4061141182V. Kaidakov43119111113
WJun 18 · 18:35D. Shchegelskyi44411711113V. Kaidakov4211411792
LApr 3 · 05:35D. Shchegelskyi36981181V. Kaidakov3911116113
LApr 2 · 16:35D. Shchegelskyi551191111132V. Kaidakov54131178153
LApr 1 · 21:00D. Shchegelskyi387813101V. Kaidakov45111111123
D. Shchegelskyi10
LOct 1 · 15:05Y. Vorsuliak1.5711311143D. Shchegelskyi2.258118121LOct 1 · 13:05A. Nazrin1.36147117113D. Shchegelskyi3.00121171172LOct 1 · 03:00D. Shchegelskyi2.3891111982V. Krokhmal1.53116611113LOct 1 · 01:00M. Loboda1.61121188123D. Shchegelskyi2.201091111102WSep 30 · 23:00Y. Vorsuliak1.57410111152D. Shchegelskyi2.25111264113LSep 30 · 22:00D. Shchegelskyi2.257911111V. Kaidakov1.5711118133LSep 30 · 21:00R. Konkulovskyi1.3031111113D. Shchegelskyi3.40117771WSep 28 · 11:35D. Shchegelskyi2.2511118113Y. Vorsuliak1.57971181WSep 28 · 09:35M. Khomenko2.2514116992D. Shchegelskyi1.571241111113WSep 28 · 07:35Y. Parahailo1.611191291D. Shchegelskyi2.2091114113
V. Kaidakov10
WOct 1 · 12:05Y. Vorsuliak1.91311131092V. Kaidakov1.801181112113WOct 1 · 02:30R. Konkulovskyi1.73712351V. Kaidakov2.00111011113LOct 1 · 01:30V. Krokhmal2.2011134113V. Kaidakov1.618111121WOct 1 · 00:00M. Loboda2.0039111192V. Kaidakov1.73111149113WSep 30 · 22:00D. Shchegelskyi2.257911111V. Kaidakov1.5711118133LSep 30 · 20:00Y. Vorsuliak1.83118911143V. Kaidakov1.83511114122LAug 14 · 11:35D. Shchegelskyi2.381011167193V. Kaidakov1.531281411172LAug 14 · 10:05V. Kaidakov1.671110941O. Pohonov2.1091211113LAug 14 · 08:05G. Kuzmenko1.9112114113V. Kaidakov1.801071161LAug 14 · 06:05I. Hrekh2.001111113V. Kaidakov1.737380
Upcoming Matches
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.