TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Yaroslav Vorsuliak vs Dmytro Shchegelskyi 3-1 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 1Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1183111181412––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:59 and never touched: 60.5% is still 60.5%
Graded at full timeYaroslav Vorsuliak to win
60.5%
60.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingYaroslav Vorsuliak above · Dmytro Shchegelskyi below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 3-11
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 14-12
Point 78 set 4, 14-12 · our read held Yaroslav Vorsuliak at 60.5%
78 points played in total.
H2H Yaroslav Vorsuliak 52–42 Dmytro Shchegelskyi Dmytro Shchegelskyi has won 42 of their 94 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:5960.5%Our read63.7%to break even at 1.571
short by 3.2pp63.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.571 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Vorsuliak
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
52-42 in 94
Vorsuliak
Correct
gap of 10 in 94, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Vorsuliak 1623 vs Shchegelskyi 1553
Vorsuliak
Correct
both rated, 70 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vorsuliak 40% vs Shchegelskyi 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vorsuliak 50% vs Shchegelskyi 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Vorsuliak -2 · Shchegelskyi +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% · Slight lean (leans Vorsuliak) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vorsuliak form (40%) is below what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVorsuliak 1.571 / Shchegelskyi 2.25
Signal prob.61% / 40%
Edge (Vorsuliak)-3.2pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13223769
Vorsuliak1.57
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite61% won 110 of 181
Up 2–0, closes it91% 48 of 53
Up 1–0, closes it78% 80 of 102
Shchegelskyi2.25
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog35% won 60 of 171
Down 0–1, comes back20% 22 of 109
Down 0–2, comes back7% 4 of 62
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeVorsuliak6wins
AwayShchegelskyi4wins
3 of 10 to a deciderVorsuliak leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVorsuliak71.4%5 of 7
AwayShchegelskyi66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Vorsuliak7Shchegelskyi3n = 10Vorsuliak took 7 of 10
S2Vorsuliak3Shchegelskyi7n = 10Shchegelskyi took 7 of 10
S3Vorsuliak7Shchegelskyi3n = 10Vorsuliak took 7 of 10
S4Vorsuliak4Shchegelskyi4n = 8split evenly
S5Vorsuliak2Shchegelskyi1n = 3Vorsuliak took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricVorsuliakShchegelskyiV − SBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match39.136.6+2.5per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVorsuliakShchegelskyiBasisWin rate · lifetime440 / 882 vs 458 / 90449.9%50.7%440 / 882 vs 458 / 904Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.139.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
VorsuliakVorsuliak 1.57/Shchegelskyi 2.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
60.5%
Vorsuliak · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Vorsuliak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 30 · 23:00Y. Vorsuliak41410111152D. Shchegelskyi44111264113
LSep 28 · 11:35Y. Vorsuliak35971181D. Shchegelskyi4111118113
WSep 27 · 19:05Y. Vorsuliak48116119113D. Shchegelskyi3661141142
WSep 26 · 22:00Y. Vorsuliak3951112113D. Shchegelskyi351161081
WSep 18 · 11:05Y. Vorsuliak351111133D. Shchegelskyi2458110
LSep 17 · 15:35Y. Vorsuliak341410371D. Shchegelskyi46121211113
WSep 16 · 21:00Y. Vorsuliak511111711113D. Shchegelskyi4171311372
WSep 11 · 11:05Y. Vorsuliak331111113D. Shchegelskyi197660
WSep 10 · 15:35Y. Vorsuliak4412912113D. Shchegelskyi3910111081
LSep 9 · 21:00Y. Vorsuliak31117581D. Shchegelskyi4181111113
Y. Vorsuliak10
LOct 1 · 13:35Y. Vorsuliak2.1011970V. Krokhmal1.671311113LOct 1 · 12:05Y. Vorsuliak1.91311131092V. Kaidakov1.801181112113WOct 1 · 02:00Y. Vorsuliak2.6317411113M. Loboda1.441511651WOct 1 · 00:30Y. Vorsuliak2.5011117113R. Konkulovskyi1.50881191LSep 30 · 23:00Y. Vorsuliak1.57410111152D. Shchegelskyi2.25111264113WSep 30 · 21:30Y. Vorsuliak2.10144118113V. Krokhmal1.67121151192WSep 30 · 20:00Y. Vorsuliak1.83118911143V. Kaidakov1.83511114122LSep 28 · 11:35D. Shchegelskyi2.2511118113Y. Vorsuliak1.57971181LSep 28 · 10:05Y. Vorsuliak1.73791131O. Storozhenko2.0011117113WSep 28 · 08:05Y. Tebenko2.00510140Y. Vorsuliak1.731112163
D. Shchegelskyi10
WOct 1 · 14:05D. Shchegelskyi2.25714113113V. Kaidakov1.57111271192LOct 1 · 13:05A. Nazrin1.36147117113D. Shchegelskyi3.00121171172LOct 1 · 03:00D. Shchegelskyi2.3891111982V. Krokhmal1.53116611113LOct 1 · 01:00M. Loboda1.61121188123D. Shchegelskyi2.201091111102WSep 30 · 23:00Y. Vorsuliak1.57410111152D. Shchegelskyi2.25111264113LSep 30 · 22:00D. Shchegelskyi2.257911111V. Kaidakov1.5711118133LSep 30 · 21:00R. Konkulovskyi1.3031111113D. Shchegelskyi3.40117771WSep 28 · 11:35D. Shchegelskyi2.2511118113Y. Vorsuliak1.57971181WSep 28 · 09:35M. Khomenko2.2514116992D. Shchegelskyi1.571241111113WSep 28 · 07:35Y. Parahailo1.611191291D. Shchegelskyi2.2091114113
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