TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Yaroslav Vorsuliak vs Roman Konkulovskyi 3-1 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 1Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
118118711119––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 00:24 and never touched: 62.5% is still 62.5%
Graded at full timeRoman Konkulovskyi to win
62.5%
62.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingYaroslav Vorsuliak above · Roman Konkulovskyi below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 11-9
Point 76 set 4, 11-9 · our read held Roman Konkulovskyi at 62.5%
76 points played in total.
H2H Yaroslav Vorsuliak 2–3 Roman Konkulovskyi Yaroslav Vorsuliak has won 2 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 00:2462.5%Our read66.7%to break even at 1.50
short by 4.2pp66.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.50 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Konkulovskyi
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
2-3 in 5
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Vorsuliak 1630 vs Konkulovskyi 1653
Konkulovskyi
Wrong
both rated, 23 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vorsuliak 40% vs Konkulovskyi 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vorsuliak 60% vs Konkulovskyi 40%
Vorsuliak
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Vorsuliak -1 · Konkulovskyi +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 63% · Clear lean (leans Konkulovskyi) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Konkulovskyi form (40%) is below what odds imply (67%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVorsuliak 2.50 / Konkulovskyi 1.50
Signal prob.38% / 63%
Edge (Konkulovskyi)-4.2pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13219001
Vorsuliak2.50
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog39% won 73 of 189
Down 0–1, comes back20% 23 of 113
Down 0–2, comes back5% 3 of 67
Konkulovskyi1.50
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite62% won 78 of 125
Up 2–0, closes it97% 35 of 36
Up 1–0, closes it85% 56 of 66
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeVorsuliak2wins
AwayKonkulovskyi3wins
1 of 5 to a deciderKonkulovskyi leads 3–2, and 1 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVorsuliak66.7%2 of 3
AwayKonkulovskyin = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Vorsuliak3Konkulovskyi2n = 5Vorsuliak took 3 of 5
S2Vorsuliak2Konkulovskyi3n = 5Konkulovskyi took 3 of 5
S3Vorsuliak2Konkulovskyi3n = 5Konkulovskyi took 3 of 5
S4Vorsuliak2Konkulovskyi1n = 3Vorsuliak took 2 of 3
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home120%
3–1Four sets, home120%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away120%
1–3Four sets, away120%
0–3Straight, away120%
These 5 meetings
MetricVorsuliakKonkulovskyiV − KBasisWins23−1in 5 meetingsFirst set32+1of 5Avg pointsper match35.036.8−1.8per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVorsuliakKonkulovskyiBasisWin rate · lifetime439 / 879 vs 360 / 73149.9%49.3%439 / 879 vs 360 / 731Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.136.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KonkulovskyiVorsuliak 2.50/Konkulovskyi 1.50
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
62.5%
Konkulovskyi · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Vorsuliak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
WOct 1 · 00:30Y. Vorsuliak4011117113R. Konkulovskyi36881191
WSep 23 · 23:30Y. Vorsuliak331111113R. Konkulovskyi248880
LSep 22 · 00:15Y. Vorsuliak36129871R. Konkulovskyi43101111113
LSep 21 · 00:30Y. Vorsuliak48109111172R. Konkulovskyi45121129113
LDec 26 · 09:05Y. Vorsuliak1831230R. Konkulovskyi361114113
Y. Vorsuliak10
LSep 30 · 23:00Y. Vorsuliak1.57410111152D. Shchegelskyi2.25111264113WSep 30 · 21:30Y. Vorsuliak2.10144118113V. Krokhmal1.67121151192WSep 30 · 20:00Y. Vorsuliak1.83118911143V. Kaidakov1.83511114122LSep 28 · 11:35D. Shchegelskyi2.2511118113Y. Vorsuliak1.57971181LSep 28 · 10:05Y. Vorsuliak1.73791131O. Storozhenko2.0011117113WSep 28 · 08:05Y. Tebenko2.00510140Y. Vorsuliak1.731112163LSep 28 · 06:05Y. Parahailo2.251111911153Y. Vorsuliak1.57135117132WSep 28 · 05:05M. Khomenko2.2511116282Y. Vorsuliak1.57841111113WSep 27 · 19:05D. Shchegelskyi2.2561141142Y. Vorsuliak1.57116119113WSep 27 · 17:35Y. Vorsuliak1.57791112113Y. Parahailo2.25111191082
R. Konkulovskyi10
WSep 30 · 23:30R. Konkulovskyi2.2571111113V. Krokhmal1.57115981LSep 30 · 22:30M. Loboda2.3871311113R. Konkulovskyi1.531111451WSep 30 · 21:00R. Konkulovskyi1.3031111113D. Shchegelskyi3.40117771LSep 30 · 02:00R. Konkulovskyi1.737770B. Chaikovskyi2.001111113LSep 30 · 00:30R. Konkulovskyi2.38491111102A. Romanenko1.53111188123WSep 29 · 23:00R. Konkulovskyi1.4011911113O. Rodin2.75511891LSep 29 · 21:30R. Konkulovskyi2.2011127862O. Pohonov1.617101111113LSep 29 · 20:00R. Konkulovskyi2.001161111102I. Sukovatyi1.73511713123LSep 29 · 02:45R. Konkulovskyi2.201112551V. Krokhmal1.61131011113WSep 29 · 00:45I. Hrekh1.53791171R. Konkulovskyi2.3811118113
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