TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Vladyslav Kovalchuk vs Oleksandr Storozhenko 1-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 4Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
4111412711711––
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:10 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeVladyslav Kovalchuk to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingVladyslav Kovalchuk above · Oleksandr Storozhenko below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 14-12
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 7-11
Point 77 set 4, 7-11 · our read held Vladyslav Kovalchuk at 54.0%
77 points played in total.
H2H Vladyslav Kovalchuk 21–20 Oleksandr Storozhenko Oleksandr Storozhenko has won 20 of their 41 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 17:1054.0%Our read47.6%to break even at 2.10
clears by 6.4pp47.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 2.10 they are the same number)
What took a side1 for · 2 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Storozhenko
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
21-20 in 41
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kovalchuk 1566 vs Storozhenko 1568
Storozhenko
Correct
both rated, 2 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kovalchuk 40% vs Storozhenko 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kovalchuk 50% vs Storozhenko 30%
Kovalchuk
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kovalchuk -2 · Storozhenko -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Kovalchuk) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Storozhenko form (40%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKovalchuk 2.10 / Storozhenko 1.666
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Kovalchuk)+6.4pp
Setka Cup · #13240157
Kovalchuk2.10
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog45% won 97 of 215
Down 0–1, comes back22% 23 of 104
Down 0–2, comes back6% 3 of 51
Storozhenko1.67
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite56% won 181 of 323
Up 2–0, closes it88% 64 of 73
Up 1–0, closes it70% 116 of 166
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKovalchuk7wins
AwayStorozhenko3wins
6 of 10 to a deciderKovalchuk leads 7–3, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKovalchuk80%4 of 5
AwayStorozhenko40%2 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kovalchuk5Storozhenko5n = 10split evenly
S2Kovalchuk6Storozhenko4n = 10Kovalchuk took 6 of 10
S3Kovalchuk7Storozhenko3n = 10Kovalchuk took 7 of 10
S4Kovalchuk4Storozhenko4n = 8split evenly
S5Kovalchuk4Storozhenko2n = 6Kovalchuk took 4 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricKovalchukStorozhenkoK − SBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match44.241.3+2.9per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKovalchukStorozhenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime373 / 773 vs 295 / 56548.3%52.2%373 / 773 vs 295 / 565Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.539.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KovalchukKovalchuk 2.10/Storozhenko 1.67
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Kovalchuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Storozhenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 3 · 21:00V. Kovalchuk331111113O. Storozhenko226970
LSep 20 · 16:05V. Kovalchuk3661211342O. Storozhenko481110511113
LSep 18 · 20:30V. Kovalchuk4611811972O. Storozhenko50911811113
WAug 24 · 05:35V. Kovalchuk371511113O. Storozhenko2513660
WAug 23 · 02:30V. Kovalchuk44111111113O. Storozhenko37781391
WAug 18 · 13:35V. Kovalchuk485101111113O. Storozhenko4911128992
WAug 14 · 21:00V. Kovalchuk501111611113O. Storozhenko4313511592
LAug 11 · 17:05V. Kovalchuk4610151291O. Storozhenko50121314113
WAug 7 · 13:25V. Kovalchuk473111111113O. Storozhenko4611137782
WAug 5 · 09:35V. Kovalchuk5511121110113O. Storozhenko4391471212
V. Kovalchuk10
LOct 4 · 15:35R. Novak1.671111123V. Kovalchuk2.1068100LOct 4 · 13:35Y. Parahailo1.531111103V. Kovalchuk2.388970WOct 4 · 12:35M. Khomenko1.73612541V. Kovalchuk2.00111011113LOct 4 · 02:30V. Kovalchuk2.388590Y. Parahailo1.531111113WOct 4 · 00:30Y. Tebenko1.839550V. Kovalchuk1.831111113LOct 3 · 23:30V. Kovalchuk2.201181291D. Shchegelskyi1.6161114113WOct 3 · 22:30M. Khomenko1.6111971272V. Kovalchuk2.208111110113WOct 3 · 21:00V. Kovalchuk1.801111113O. Storozhenko1.916970WSep 20 · 18:05R. Novak1.67108111172V. Kovalchuk2.10121115113LSep 20 · 17:05V. Kovalchuk1.6711911832Y. Tebenko2.10711811113
O. Storozhenko10
WOct 4 · 18:35R. Novak1.576370O. Storozhenko2.251111113LOct 4 · 16:05M. Khomenko1.401111113O. Storozhenko2.758680WOct 4 · 14:05D. Shchegelskyi1.83101060O. Storozhenko1.831212113WOct 4 · 12:05Y. Parahailo1.80811100O. Storozhenko1.911113123LOct 4 · 03:00O. Storozhenko1.8341180D. Shchegelskyi1.831113113LOct 4 · 01:00M. Khomenko1.501111113O. Storozhenko2.509450LOct 3 · 23:00Y. Tebenko1.9111116113O. Storozhenko1.80571181LOct 3 · 22:00O. Storozhenko1.83115118112Y. Parahailo1.83111811133LOct 3 · 21:00V. Kovalchuk1.801111113O. Storozhenko1.916970LOct 3 · 02:30O. Storozhenko1.67691471M. Slozka2.10111112113
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