TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Ruslan Novak vs Oleksandr Storozhenko 0-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 4Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 3
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
611311711––––
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:20 and never touched: 56.7% is still 56.7%
Graded at full timeRuslan Novak to win
56.7%
56.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingRuslan Novak above · Oleksandr Storozhenko below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 3-11
Set 3 · 7-11
Point 49 set 3, 7-11 · our read held Ruslan Novak at 56.7%
49 points played in total.
H2H Ruslan Novak 2–0 Oleksandr Storozhenko Oleksandr Storozhenko has won 0 of their 2 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:2056.7%Our read63.7%to break even at 1.571
short by 7.0pp63.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.571 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Novak
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
2-0 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Novak 1539 vs Storozhenko 1580
Storozhenko
Correct
both rated, 41 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Novak 80% vs Storozhenko 60%
Novak
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Novak 50% vs Storozhenko 30%
Novak
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Novak +3 · Storozhenko +1
Novak
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% · Slight lean (leans Novak) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Storozhenko form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNovak 1.571 / Storozhenko 2.25
Signal prob.57% / 43%
Edge (Novak)-7.0pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13240548
Novak1.57
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite55% won 79 of 145
Up 2–0, closes it94% 45 of 48
Up 1–0, closes it74% 58 of 78
Storozhenko2.25
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog47% won 52 of 111
Down 0–1, comes back25% 17 of 68
Down 0–2, comes back10% 4 of 40
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeNovak2wins
AwayStorozhenko0wins
Novak leads 2–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home2
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricNovakStorozhenkoN − SBasisWins20+2in 2 meetingsFirst set20+2of 2Avg pointsper match46.036.0+10.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNovakStorozhenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime266 / 507 vs 296 / 56652.5%52.3%266 / 507 vs 296 / 566Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.039.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
NovakNovak 1.57/Storozhenko 2.25
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
56.7%
Novak · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Storozhenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
WSep 20 · 12:05R. Novak4411811143O. Storozhenko326113121
WSep 12 · 03:15R. Novak48111511113O. Storozhenko40917771
R. Novak10
WOct 4 · 16:35Y. Parahailo1.838450R. Novak1.831111113WOct 4 · 15:35R. Novak1.671111123V. Kovalchuk2.1068100WOct 4 · 14:35M. Khomenko1.80811591R. Novak1.9111811113LOct 4 · 13:05R. Novak2.2011612862D. Shchegelskyi1.619111011113WSep 27 · 18:05R. Novak2.201111113Y. Kolos1.614990LSep 27 · 16:35R. Novak1.80111111972M. Khomenko1.91771311113WSep 27 · 15:05R. Novak2.00118811113D. Shchegelskyi1.7381111692LSep 27 · 13:35R. Novak2.75991181Y. Vorsuliak1.4011119113LSep 27 · 12:05R. Novak1.8312791152Y. Parahailo1.831011116113LSep 27 · 03:00D. Shchegelskyi1.6711128113R. Novak2.108101181
O. Storozhenko10
WOct 4 · 17:35V. Kovalchuk2.10414771O. Storozhenko1.67111211113LOct 4 · 16:05M. Khomenko1.401111113O. Storozhenko2.758680WOct 4 · 14:05D. Shchegelskyi1.83101060O. Storozhenko1.831212113WOct 4 · 12:05Y. Parahailo1.80811100O. Storozhenko1.911113123LOct 4 · 03:00O. Storozhenko1.8341180D. Shchegelskyi1.831113113LOct 4 · 01:00M. Khomenko1.501111113O. Storozhenko2.509450LOct 3 · 23:00Y. Tebenko1.9111116113O. Storozhenko1.80571181LOct 3 · 22:00O. Storozhenko1.83115118112Y. Parahailo1.83111811133LOct 3 · 21:00V. Kovalchuk1.801111113O. Storozhenko1.916970LOct 3 · 02:30O. Storozhenko1.67691471M. Slozka2.10111112113
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