TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Maksym Khomenko vs Oleksandr Storozhenko 3-0 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 4Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
119114115––––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 00:53 and never touched: 64.9% is still 64.9%
Graded at full timeMaksym Khomenko to win
64.9%
64.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingMaksym Khomenko above · Oleksandr Storozhenko below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 11-5
Point 51 set 3, 11-5 · our read held Maksym Khomenko at 64.9%
51 points played in total.
H2H Maksym Khomenko 7–2 Oleksandr Storozhenko Oleksandr Storozhenko has won 2 of their 9 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 00:5364.9%Our read66.7%to break even at 1.50
short by 1.8pp66.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.50 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Khomenko
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
7-2 in 9
Khomenko
Correct
gap of 5 in 9, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Khomenko 1633 vs Storozhenko 1565
Khomenko
Correct
both rated, 68 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Khomenko 40% vs Storozhenko 20%
Khomenko
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Khomenko 50% vs Storozhenko 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Khomenko +1 · Storozhenko -4
Storozhenko
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 65% · Clear lean (leans Khomenko) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Storozhenko form (20%) is below what odds imply (40%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKhomenko 1.50 / Storozhenko 2.50
Signal prob.65% / 35%
Edge (Khomenko)-1.8pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13234506
Khomenko1.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite67% won 78 of 117
Up 2–0, closes it100% 48 of 48
Up 1–0, closes it86% 57 of 66
Storozhenko2.50
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 4
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog48% won 54 of 112
Down 0–1, comes back28% 19 of 68
Down 0–2, comes back13% 5 of 39
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 9 meetings
HomeKhomenko7wins
AwayStorozhenko2wins
1 of 9 to a deciderKhomenko leads 7–2, and 1 of those 9 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKhomenko83.3%5 of 6
AwayStorozhenko33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 9 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Khomenko6Storozhenko3n = 9Khomenko took 6 of 9
S2Khomenko7Storozhenko2n = 9Khomenko took 7 of 9
S3Khomenko7Storozhenko2n = 9Khomenko took 7 of 9
S4Khomenko3Storozhenko1n = 4Khomenko took 3 of 4
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 9 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 9. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home444%
3–1Four sets, home333%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away111%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away111%
These 9 meetings
MetricKhomenkoStorozhenkoK − SBasisWins72+5in 9 meetingsFirst set63+3of 9Avg pointsper match34.026.1+7.9per matchSweeps41+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKhomenkoStorozhenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime446 / 824 vs 293 / 56154.1%52.2%446 / 824 vs 293 / 561Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.439.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KhomenkoKhomenko 1.50/Storozhenko 2.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
64.9%
Khomenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Khomenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
WOct 4 · 01:00M. Khomenko331111113O. Storozhenko189450
WSep 28 · 08:35M. Khomenko331111113O. Storozhenko177550
LSep 6 · 03:00M. Khomenko198470O. Storozhenko331111113
WAug 31 · 09:35M. Khomenko331111113O. Storozhenko219570
LAug 30 · 01:00M. Khomenko3911211962O. Storozhenko44811311113
WAug 24 · 09:35M. Khomenko3811115113O. Storozhenko28391151
WAug 23 · 00:00M. Khomenko331111113O. Storozhenko156720
WMar 28 · 00:45M. Khomenko4071111113O. Storozhenko31117671
WMar 26 · 22:15M. Khomenko3851111113O. Storozhenko28113771
M. Khomenko10
WOct 4 · 00:00M. Khomenko1.2511116113Y. Parahailo3.75671141LOct 3 · 22:30M. Khomenko1.6111971272V. Kovalchuk2.208111110113LOct 3 · 20:30M. Khomenko2.207790D. Shchegelskyi1.611111113WSep 28 · 10:35Y. Parahailo3.75114681M. Khomenko1.2541111113LSep 28 · 09:35M. Khomenko2.2514116992D. Shchegelskyi1.571241111113WSep 28 · 08:35M. Khomenko1.671111113O. Storozhenko2.107550LSep 28 · 07:05M. Khomenko1.4487111192Y. Tebenko2.63111143113LSep 28 · 05:05M. Khomenko2.2511116282Y. Vorsuliak1.57841111113WSep 27 · 18:35M. Khomenko1.2511115113Y. Parahailo3.75281181WSep 27 · 16:35R. Novak1.80111111972M. Khomenko1.91771311113
O. Storozhenko10
LOct 3 · 23:00Y. Tebenko1.9111116113O. Storozhenko1.80571181LOct 3 · 22:00O. Storozhenko1.83115118112Y. Parahailo1.83111811133LOct 3 · 21:00V. Kovalchuk1.801111113O. Storozhenko1.916970LOct 3 · 02:30O. Storozhenko1.67691471M. Slozka2.10111112113WOct 3 · 00:30I. Pytsko2.101111118112O. Storozhenko1.67813311133WOct 2 · 23:30O. Storozhenko1.671111113D. Maltsev2.108780WOct 2 · 22:30Y. Tebenko1.91114751O. Storozhenko1.8091111113LOct 2 · 21:00O. Storozhenko1.6781161182I. Fashchevskyi2.10119119113LSep 30 · 11:05Y. Tebenko1.917111110113O. Storozhenko1.8011891252LSep 28 · 08:35M. Khomenko1.671111113O. Storozhenko2.107550
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