TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Oleksandr Storozhenko vs Denys Maltsev 3-0 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 2Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
118117118––––
Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:16 and never touched: 57.0% is still 57.0%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Storozhenko to win
57.0%
57.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingOleksandr Storozhenko above · Denys Maltsev below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 11-8
Point 56 set 3, 11-8 · our read held Oleksandr Storozhenko at 57.0%
56 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Storozhenko 30–35 Denys Maltsev Oleksandr Storozhenko has won 30 of their 65 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 23:1657.0%Our read60.0%to break even at 1.666
short by 3.0pp60.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.666 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Storozhenko
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
30-35 in 65
Maltsev
Wrong
gap of 5 in 65, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Storozhenko 1607 vs Maltsev 1526
Storozhenko
Correct
both rated, 81 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Storozhenko 60% vs Maltsev 20%
Storozhenko
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Storozhenko 60% vs Maltsev 20%
Storozhenko
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Storozhenko +1 · Maltsev -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% · Slight lean (leans Storozhenko) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Maltsev form (20%) is below what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStorozhenko 1.666 / Maltsev 2.10
Signal prob.57% / 43%
Edge (Storozhenko)-3.0pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13229190
Storozhenko1.67
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite56% won 179 of 318
Up 2–0, closes it88% 63 of 72
Up 1–0, closes it70% 115 of 165
Maltsev2.10
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog43% won 85 of 196
Down 0–1, comes back19% 17 of 91
Down 0–2, comes back10% 4 of 41
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeStorozhenko5wins
AwayMaltsev5wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStorozhenko100%5 of 5
AwayMaltsev100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Storozhenko5Maltsev5n = 10split evenly
S2Storozhenko3Maltsev7n = 10Maltsev took 7 of 10
S3Storozhenko8Maltsev2n = 10Storozhenko took 8 of 10
S4Storozhenko6Maltsev1n = 7Storozhenko took 6 of 7
S5Storozhenko0Maltsev3n = 3Maltsev took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricStorozhenkoMaltsevS − MBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match38.335.3+3.0per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStorozhenkoMaltsevBasisWin rate · lifetime291 / 554 vs 467 / 90952.5%51.4%291 / 554 vs 467 / 909Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.238.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
StorozhenkoStorozhenko 1.67/Maltsev 2.10
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
57%
Storozhenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Storozhenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 30 · 08:35O. Storozhenko341211113D. Maltsev2710890
LSep 29 · 19:05O. Storozhenko4191141162D. Maltsev41114114113
LSep 26 · 07:55O. Storozhenko28610120D. Maltsev371112143
WSep 25 · 11:55O. Storozhenko4012611113D. Maltsev391011991
WSep 24 · 18:55O. Storozhenko3711411113D. Maltsev25311561
LSep 22 · 22:15O. Storozhenko45114111182D. Maltsev44131145113
LSep 21 · 16:55O. Storozhenko4696111192D. Maltsev47111195113
LSep 19 · 03:00O. Storozhenko355911101D. Maltsev4111117123
WSep 16 · 10:05O. Storozhenko331111113D. Maltsev184680
WSep 15 · 12:35O. Storozhenko44111111113D. Maltsev34613961
O. Storozhenko10
WOct 3 · 00:30I. Pytsko2.101111118112O. Storozhenko1.67813311133WOct 2 · 22:30Y. Tebenko1.91114751O. Storozhenko1.8091111113LOct 2 · 21:00O. Storozhenko1.6781161182I. Fashchevskyi2.10119119113LSep 30 · 11:05Y. Tebenko1.917111110113O. Storozhenko1.8011891252WSep 30 · 10:05M. Slozka2.10148100O. Storozhenko1.671611123WSep 30 · 08:35D. Maltsev1.9110890O. Storozhenko1.801211113WSep 30 · 06:35I. Pytsko2.1011911892O. Storozhenko1.67911811113WSep 30 · 04:35I. Fashchevskyi2.10791161O. Storozhenko1.6711119113LSep 29 · 19:05O. Storozhenko1.8091141162D. Maltsev1.91114114113LSep 29 · 17:05M. Slozka2.2511411113O. Storozhenko1.57811591
D. Maltsev10
LOct 2 · 21:30I. Pytsko1.401113113D. Maltsev2.7591190LOct 2 · 20:30Y. Tebenko1.73611144113D. Maltsev2.00116121162WSep 30 · 10:35I. Fashchevskyi2.104690D. Maltsev1.671111113LSep 30 · 09:35D. Maltsev2.751210971I. Pytsko1.40101211113LSep 30 · 08:35D. Maltsev1.9110890O. Storozhenko1.801211113LSep 30 · 07:05D. Maltsev2.0011139552Y. Tebenko1.736111111113LSep 30 · 05:05D. Maltsev1.50881161M. Slozka2.5011117113WSep 29 · 19:05O. Storozhenko1.8091141162D. Maltsev1.91114114113LSep 29 · 17:35D. Maltsev2.75811381I. Pytsko1.4011411113LSep 29 · 15:35Y. Tebenko1.73111176113D. Maltsev2.0066111162
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