TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Vladyslav Kovalchuk vs Yaroslav Tebenko 1-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 5Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
611116611811––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:22 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeVladyslav Kovalchuk to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
WrongSent to Pro: Vladyslav Kovalchuk @ 1.67 · Lost
How it is goingVladyslav Kovalchuk above · Yaroslav Tebenko below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 70 set 4, 8-11 · our read held Vladyslav Kovalchuk at 54.0%
70 points played in total.
H2H Vladyslav Kovalchuk 41–37 Yaroslav Tebenko Yaroslav Tebenko has won 37 of their 78 meetings.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 08:2254.0%Our read60.0%to break even at 1.666
short by 6.0pp60.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.666 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Kovalchuk
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
41-37 in 78
Kovalchuk
Wrong
gap of 4 in 78, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kovalchuk 1550 vs Tebenko 1602
Tebenko
Correct
both rated, 52 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kovalchuk 40% vs Tebenko 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kovalchuk 40% vs Tebenko 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kovalchuk -1 · Tebenko -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent, and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Kovalchuk) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kovalchuk form (40%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKovalchuk 1.666 / Tebenko 2.10
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Kovalchuk)-6.0pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13245052
Kovalchuk1.67
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite69% won 79 of 114
Up 2–0, closes it91% 32 of 35
Up 1–0, closes it77% 58 of 75
Tebenko2.10
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog49% won 124 of 253
Down 0–1, comes back33% 45 of 135
Down 0–2, comes back13% 9 of 70
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKovalchuk7wins
AwayTebenko3wins
3 of 10 to a deciderKovalchuk leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKovalchuk66.7%6 of 9
AwayTebenkon = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kovalchuk9Tebenko1n = 10Kovalchuk took 9 of 10
S2Kovalchuk7Tebenko3n = 10Kovalchuk took 7 of 10
S3Kovalchuk5Tebenko5n = 10split evenly
S4Kovalchuk4Tebenko3n = 7Kovalchuk took 4 of 7
S5Kovalchuk1Tebenko2n = 3Tebenko took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricKovalchukTebenkoK − TBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set91+8of 10Avg pointsper match38.735.0+3.7per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKovalchukTebenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime372 / 773 vs 428 / 86948.1%49.3%372 / 773 vs 428 / 869Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.538.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KovalchukKovalchuk 1.67/Tebenko 2.10
Miss
What we said
54%
Kovalchuk · sealed before the serve
Sent to Pro: Vladyslav Kovalchuk @ 1.67 · Lost
What happened
1–3
Tebenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 4 · 00:30V. Kovalchuk331111113Y. Tebenko199550
LSep 20 · 17:05V. Kovalchuk4211911832Y. Tebenko48711811113
WSep 20 · 00:30V. Kovalchuk44111110123Y. Tebenko356712101
LSep 14 · 05:35V. Kovalchuk28135641Y. Tebenko44111111113
LSep 13 · 00:30V. Kovalchuk4211115872Y. Tebenko41261111113
WAug 19 · 07:05V. Kovalchuk341111123Y. Tebenko2385100
WAug 18 · 16:35V. Kovalchuk4341711113Y. Tebenko381115661
WAug 14 · 22:30V. Kovalchuk50119611133Y. Tebenko45911113112
WAug 5 · 07:05V. Kovalchuk3811115113Y. Tebenko33691171
WAug 4 · 18:35V. Kovalchuk331111113Y. Tebenko247980
V. Kovalchuk10
LOct 5 · 10:35V. Kovalchuk1.911161491M. Khomenko1.8061116113LOct 5 · 07:35V. Kovalchuk2.20811111182D. Shchegelskyi1.61119139113WOct 5 · 06:05V. Kovalchuk1.83101111113Y. Kolos1.83128941LOct 5 · 04:35V. Kovalchuk2.506760Y. Parahailo1.501111113WOct 4 · 19:05D. Shchegelskyi1.91611615112V. Kovalchuk1.801141113133LOct 4 · 17:35V. Kovalchuk2.10414771O. Storozhenko1.67111211113LOct 4 · 15:35R. Novak1.671111123V. Kovalchuk2.1068100LOct 4 · 13:35Y. Parahailo1.531111103V. Kovalchuk2.388970WOct 4 · 12:35M. Khomenko1.73612541V. Kovalchuk2.00111011113LOct 4 · 02:30V. Kovalchuk2.388590Y. Parahailo1.531111113
Y. Tebenko10
LOct 5 · 08:05Y. Tebenko2.002750Y. Kolos1.731111113LOct 5 · 07:05M. Khomenko1.53116712113Y. Tebenko2.38511111092WOct 5 · 05:35Y. Tebenko2.201111113D. Shchegelskyi1.612820WOct 4 · 02:00Y. Tebenko2.50111110113M. Khomenko1.50691261LOct 4 · 00:30Y. Tebenko1.839550V. Kovalchuk1.831111113WOct 3 · 23:00Y. Tebenko1.9111116113O. Storozhenko1.80571181LOct 3 · 21:30Y. Tebenko2.1081060D. Shchegelskyi1.671112113WOct 3 · 20:00Y. Tebenko1.839101111113Y. Parahailo1.8311126562LOct 3 · 02:00I. Pytsko2.10511116113Y. Tebenko1.6711691172LOct 3 · 01:00Y. Tebenko1.5071131122I. Fashchevskyi2.50111117113
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