TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Maksym Khomenko vs Yaroslav Tebenko 3-1 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 8Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
116411115117––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:36 and never touched: 60.5% is still 60.5%
Graded at full timeMaksym Khomenko to win
60.5%
60.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingMaksym Khomenko above · Yaroslav Tebenko below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 4-11
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 11-7
Point 66 set 4, 11-7 · our read held Maksym Khomenko at 60.5%
66 points played in total.
H2H Maksym Khomenko 32–13 Yaroslav Tebenko Yaroslav Tebenko has won 13 of their 45 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 22:3660.5%Our read63.7%to break even at 1.571
short by 3.2pp63.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.571 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Khomenko
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
32-13 in 45
Khomenko
Correct
gap of 19 in 45, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Khomenko 1629 vs Tebenko 1598
Khomenko
Correct
both rated, 31 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Khomenko 60% vs Tebenko 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Khomenko 60% vs Tebenko 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Khomenko -1 · Tebenko -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% · Slight lean (leans Khomenko) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Tebenko form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKhomenko 1.571 / Tebenko 2.25
Signal prob.61% / 40%
Edge (Khomenko)-3.2pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13261539
Khomenko1.57
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite67% won 86 of 129
Up 2–0, closes it100% 53 of 53
Up 1–0, closes it86% 63 of 73
Tebenko2.25
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog49% won 124 of 255
Down 0–1, comes back32% 44 of 136
Down 0–2, comes back13% 9 of 71
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKhomenko7wins
AwayTebenko3wins
4 of 10 to a deciderKhomenko leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKhomenko100%6 of 6
AwayTebenko75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Khomenko6Tebenko4n = 10Khomenko took 6 of 10
S2Khomenko4Tebenko6n = 10Tebenko took 6 of 10
S3Khomenko7Tebenko3n = 10Khomenko took 7 of 10
S4Khomenko5Tebenko3n = 8Khomenko took 5 of 8
S5Khomenko3Tebenko1n = 4Khomenko took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricKhomenkoTebenkoK − TBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match38.935.8+3.1per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKhomenkoTebenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime436 / 817 vs 427 / 86353.4%49.5%436 / 817 vs 427 / 863Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.338.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KhomenkoKhomenko 1.57/Tebenko 2.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
60.5%
Khomenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Khomenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 8 · 22:45M. Khomenko3711411113Y. Tebenko29611571
WOct 5 · 07:05M. Khomenko47116712113Y. Tebenko46511111092
LOct 4 · 02:00M. Khomenko33691261Y. Tebenko43111110113
LSep 28 · 07:05M. Khomenko4687111192Y. Tebenko40111143113
LSep 26 · 22:30M. Khomenko21211171Y. Tebenko4011711113
WSep 20 · 02:00M. Khomenko331111113Y. Tebenko205780
WSep 14 · 09:35M. Khomenko48117118113Y. Tebenko4031181172
WSep 13 · 02:00M. Khomenko331111113Y. Tebenko163490
WSep 5 · 21:00M. Khomenko4312911113Y. Tebenko361011781
WAug 31 · 07:05M. Khomenko48711811113Y. Tebenko4811911892
M. Khomenko10
LOct 8 · 20:45M. Khomenko1.3312340O. Storozhenko3.251411113WOct 5 · 10:35V. Kovalchuk1.911161491M. Khomenko1.8061116113LOct 5 · 09:35M. Khomenko2.2512512862D. Shchegelskyi1.5710111011113WOct 5 · 08:35M. Khomenko1.251111113Y. Parahailo3.754690WOct 5 · 07:05M. Khomenko1.53116712113Y. Tebenko2.38511111092WOct 5 · 05:05M. Khomenko1.221111113Y. Kolos4.002940WOct 4 · 18:05Y. Parahailo3.7511116542M. Khomenko1.25781111113LOct 4 · 17:05M. Khomenko2.251161091D. Shchegelskyi1.5791112113WOct 4 · 16:05M. Khomenko1.401111113O. Storozhenko2.758680LOct 4 · 14:35M. Khomenko1.80811591R. Novak1.9111811113
Y. Tebenko10
LOct 8 · 21:15Y. Tebenko2.106911101D. Shchegelskyi1.6711112123WOct 7 · 11:05Y. Tebenko1.731116113D. Maltsev2.0071430LOct 7 · 09:05O. Storozhenko1.8311117113Y. Tebenko1.83811191WOct 7 · 08:05Y. Tebenko1.531111123I. Fashchevskyi2.3898100WOct 7 · 07:05M. Potapov1.83131111192Y. Tebenko1.83159115113LOct 7 · 05:35Y. Tebenko1.806980I. Pytsko1.911111113WOct 5 · 11:05Y. Tebenko1.83111253113Y. Parahailo1.83910111132WOct 5 · 09:05V. Kovalchuk1.67611681Y. Tebenko2.1011611113LOct 5 · 08:05Y. Tebenko2.002750Y. Kolos1.731111113LOct 5 · 07:05M. Khomenko1.53116712113Y. Tebenko2.38511111092
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