TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Yaroslav Tebenko vs Dmytro Shchegelskyi 1-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 8Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
6119111121012––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:11 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeDmytro Shchegelskyi to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
RightSent to Pro: Dmytro Shchegelskyi @ 1.67 · Won
How it is goingYaroslav Tebenko above · Dmytro Shchegelskyi below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-2
Set 4 · 10-12
Point 72 set 4, 10-12 · our read held Dmytro Shchegelskyi at 54.0%
72 points played in total.
H2H Yaroslav Tebenko 28–36 Dmytro Shchegelskyi Yaroslav Tebenko has won 28 of their 64 meetings.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 20:1154.0%Our read60.0%to break even at 1.666
short by 6.0pp60.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.666 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Shchegelskyi
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
28-36 in 64
Shchegelskyi
Correct
gap of 8 in 64, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Tebenko 1622 vs Shchegelskyi 1586
Tebenko
Wrong
both rated, 36 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Tebenko 60% vs Shchegelskyi 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Tebenko 60% vs Shchegelskyi 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Tebenko +1 · Shchegelskyi -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent, and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Shchegelskyi) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Tebenko form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTebenko 2.10 / Shchegelskyi 1.666
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Shchegelskyi)-6.0pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13261511
Tebenko2.10
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 1 day ago (Oct 07)
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog49% won 124 of 255
Down 0–1, comes back32% 44 of 136
Down 0–2, comes back13% 9 of 71
Shchegelskyi1.67
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 3 days ago (Oct 05)
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite59% won 89 of 152
Up 2–0, closes it94% 30 of 32
Up 1–0, closes it75% 56 of 75
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeTebenko4wins
AwayShchegelskyi6wins
3 of 10 to a deciderShchegelskyi leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeTebenko50%2 of 4
AwayShchegelskyi66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Tebenko4Shchegelskyi6n = 10Shchegelskyi took 6 of 10
S2Tebenko4Shchegelskyi6n = 10Shchegelskyi took 6 of 10
S3Tebenko3Shchegelskyi7n = 10Shchegelskyi took 7 of 10
S4Tebenko3Shchegelskyi3n = 6split evenly
S5Tebenko2Shchegelskyi1n = 3Tebenko took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricTebenkoShchegelskyiT − SBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match36.235.7+0.5per matchSweeps13−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTebenkoShchegelskyiBasisWin rate · lifetime427 / 861 vs 459 / 90749.6%50.6%427 / 861 vs 459 / 907Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.439.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
ShchegelskyiTebenko 2.10/Shchegelskyi 1.67
Hit
What we said
54%
Shchegelskyi · sealed before the serve
Sent to Pro: Dmytro Shchegelskyi @ 1.67 · Won
What happened
1–3
Shchegelskyi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 5 · 05:35Y. Tebenko331111113D. Shchegelskyi122820
LOct 3 · 21:30Y. Tebenko2481060D. Shchegelskyi341112113
LSep 28 · 05:35Y. Tebenko4471111782D. Shchegelskyi41115311113
LSep 26 · 21:00Y. Tebenko258980D. Shchegelskyi331111113
WSep 20 · 19:05Y. Tebenko3941113113D. Shchegelskyi351151181
WSep 19 · 20:00Y. Tebenko47118611113D. Shchegelskyi4381111942
LApr 28 · 09:35Y. Tebenko4111111091D. Shchegelskyi4481312113
LApr 27 · 13:05Y. Tebenko4211121181D. Shchegelskyi4131413113
LApr 26 · 22:30Y. Tebenko2082100D. Shchegelskyi341111123
WMar 25 · 10:05Y. Tebenko47511911113D. Shchegelskyi4011411682
Y. Tebenko10
WOct 7 · 11:05Y. Tebenko1.731116113D. Maltsev2.0071430LOct 7 · 09:05O. Storozhenko1.8311117113Y. Tebenko1.83811191WOct 7 · 08:05Y. Tebenko1.531111123I. Fashchevskyi2.3898100WOct 7 · 07:05M. Potapov1.83131111192Y. Tebenko1.83159115113LOct 7 · 05:35Y. Tebenko1.806980I. Pytsko1.911111113WOct 5 · 11:05Y. Tebenko1.83111253113Y. Parahailo1.83910111132WOct 5 · 09:05V. Kovalchuk1.67611681Y. Tebenko2.1011611113LOct 5 · 08:05Y. Tebenko2.002750Y. Kolos1.731111113LOct 5 · 07:05M. Khomenko1.53116712113Y. Tebenko2.38511111092WOct 5 · 05:35Y. Tebenko2.201111113D. Shchegelskyi1.612820
D. Shchegelskyi10
LOct 8 · 22:15D. Shchegelskyi2.2010127101Y. Parahailo1.61121011123LOct 5 · 11:35D. Shchegelskyi1.831191011112Y. Kolos1.83811126133WOct 5 · 09:35M. Khomenko2.2512512862D. Shchegelskyi1.5710111011113WOct 5 · 07:35V. Kovalchuk2.20811111182D. Shchegelskyi1.61119139113WOct 5 · 06:35D. Shchegelskyi2.101011211113Y. Parahailo1.6712911972LOct 5 · 05:35Y. Tebenko2.201111113D. Shchegelskyi1.612820LOct 4 · 19:05D. Shchegelskyi1.91611615112V. Kovalchuk1.801141113133WOct 4 · 17:05M. Khomenko2.251161091D. Shchegelskyi1.5791112113LOct 4 · 15:05Y. Parahailo2.3881112123D. Shchegelskyi1.5311810101LOct 4 · 14:05D. Shchegelskyi1.83101060O. Storozhenko1.831212113
Upcoming Matches
Y. Tebenko
Oct 8 · 23:45Y. Tebenko1.91O. Storozhenko1.80—Oct 9 · 00:45Y. Tebenko2.00V. Kovalchuk1.73—Oct 9 · 02:45Y. Tebenko1.83Y. Parahailo1.83—Oct 9 · 21:00Y. Tebenko1.61D. Palii2.20—Oct 9 · 22:30Y. Tebenko1.61O. Budnikov2.20—Oct 9 · 23:30Y. Tebenko1.83M. Potapov1.83—Oct 10 · 00:30Y. Tebenko1.67D. Maltsev2.10—Oct 10 · 02:30Y. Tebenko1.73I. Pytsko2.00—
D. Shchegelskyi
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