TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Yaroslav Tebenko vs Mykhailo Potapov 2-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 9Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
11131141191113611
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:26 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeYaroslav Tebenko to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingYaroslav Tebenko above · Mykhailo Potapov below
Set 1 · 11-13
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 11-13
Set 5 · 6-11
Point 100 set 5, 6-11 · our read held Yaroslav Tebenko at 54.0%
100 points played in total.
H2H Yaroslav Tebenko 32–47 Mykhailo Potapov Yaroslav Tebenko has won 32 of their 79 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 23:2654.0%Our read54.6%to break even at 1.833
short by 0.6pp54.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.833 they are the same number)
What took a side1 for · 3 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Potapov
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
32-47 in 79
Potapov
Correct
gap of 15 in 79, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Tebenko 1581 vs Potapov 1546
Tebenko
Wrong
both rated, 35 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Tebenko 40% vs Potapov 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Tebenko 40% vs Potapov 60%
Potapov
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Tebenko +1 · Potapov +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Tebenko) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Potapov form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTebenko 1.833 / Potapov 1.833
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Tebenko)-0.6pp
Setka Cup · #13266199
Tebenko1.83
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
Potapov1.83
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeTebenko6wins
AwayPotapov4wins
4 of 10 to a deciderTebenko leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeTebenko80%4 of 5
AwayPotapov60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Tebenko5Potapov5n = 10split evenly
S2Tebenko6Potapov4n = 10Tebenko took 6 of 10
S3Tebenko6Potapov4n = 10Tebenko took 6 of 10
S4Tebenko3Potapov3n = 6split evenly
S5Tebenko2Potapov2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricTebenkoPotapovT − PBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match38.335.5+2.8per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTebenkoPotapovBasisWin rate · lifetime429 / 868 vs 214 / 45349.4%47.2%429 / 868 vs 214 / 453Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.438.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
TebenkoTebenko 1.83/Potapov 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Tebenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Potapov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 7 · 07:05Y. Tebenko51159115113M. Potapov45131111192
WSep 25 · 12:55Y. Tebenko331111113M. Potapov226970
LSep 24 · 14:25Y. Tebenko461011111132M. Potapov43121325113
WSep 23 · 02:15Y. Tebenko4181111113M. Potapov31116861
LSep 12 · 02:15Y. Tebenko4811118992M. Potapov43821111113
WSep 9 · 07:05Y. Tebenko4391111123M. Potapov341176101
LSep 8 · 14:35Y. Tebenko2011720M. Potapov351311113
LSep 6 · 00:30Y. Tebenko2161050M. Potapov341112113
WSep 4 · 15:25Y. Tebenko44111147113M. Potapov4066111162
WSep 3 · 22:15Y. Tebenko361312113M. Potapov28111070
Y. Tebenko10
WOct 9 · 22:30O. Budnikov2.50111112152Y. Tebenko1.508131011113LOct 9 · 21:00Y. Tebenko1.6177110D. Palii2.201111133LOct 9 · 02:45Y. Tebenko1.83611591Y. Parahailo1.8311611113WOct 9 · 00:45V. Kovalchuk1.7391180Y. Tebenko2.001113113LOct 8 · 23:45Y. Tebenko1.916970O. Storozhenko1.801111113LOct 8 · 22:45M. Khomenko1.5711411113Y. Tebenko2.25611571LOct 8 · 21:15Y. Tebenko2.106911101D. Shchegelskyi1.6711112123WOct 7 · 11:05Y. Tebenko1.731116113D. Maltsev2.0071430LOct 7 · 09:05O. Storozhenko1.8311117113Y. Tebenko1.83811191WOct 7 · 08:05Y. Tebenko1.531111123I. Fashchevskyi2.3898100
M. Potapov10
WOct 9 · 21:30D. Maltsev1.6141080M. Potapov2.201112113WOct 9 · 20:30O. Budnikov1.61511712112M. Potapov2.201151110133LOct 7 · 10:35O. Storozhenko1.53811611113M. Potapov2.3811611772LOct 7 · 09:35M. Potapov2.207111191I. Pytsko1.6111138113LOct 7 · 08:35M. Potapov2.105970D. Maltsev1.671111113LOct 7 · 07:05M. Potapov1.83131111192Y. Tebenko1.83159115113WOct 7 · 05:05M. Potapov1.8012117113I. Fashchevskyi1.911071151WOct 6 · 18:05V. Moshovskyi2.2071111772M. Potapov1.61118611113WOct 6 · 17:05M. Potapov2.101151111113D. Maltsev1.6761171392WOct 6 · 16:05M. Potapov2.101118413113I. Pytsko1.67616111582
Upcoming Matches
Y. Tebenko
M. Potapov
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.