TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Mykhailo Potapov vs Ivan Pytsko 3-1 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 10Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
11712101012118––
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 6
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:03 and never touched: 54.7% is still 54.7%
Graded at full timeIvan Pytsko to win
54.7%
54.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMykhailo Potapov above · Ivan Pytsko below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 10-12
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 81 set 4, 11-8 · our read held Ivan Pytsko at 54.7%
81 points played in total.
H2H Mykhailo Potapov 53–57 Ivan Pytsko Mykhailo Potapov has won 53 of their 110 meetings.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 16:0354.7%Our read55.6%to break even at 1.80
short by 0.9pp55.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.80 they are the same number)
What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Pytsko
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
53-57 in 110
Pytsko
Wrong
gap of 4 in 110, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Potapov 1534 vs Pytsko 1664
Pytsko
Wrong
both rated, 130 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Potapov 40% vs Pytsko 100%
Pytsko
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Potapov 40% vs Pytsko 70%
Pytsko
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Potapov +1 · Pytsko +6
Pytsko
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent, and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 55% · Coin-flip (leans Pytsko) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Pytsko form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPotapov 1.909 / Pytsko 1.80
Signal prob.45% / 55%
Edge (Pytsko)-0.9pp
Setka Cup · #13270295
Potapov1.91
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog43% won 61 of 141
Down 0–1, comes back19% 14 of 74
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 34
Pytsko1.80
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 6
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite54% won 90 of 166
Up 2–0, closes it96% 43 of 45
Up 1–0, closes it77% 69 of 90
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePotapov6wins
AwayPytsko4wins
5 of 10 to a deciderPotapov leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePotapov100%4 of 4
AwayPytsko66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Potapov4Pytsko6n = 10Pytsko took 6 of 10
S2Potapov4Pytsko6n = 10Pytsko took 6 of 10
S3Potapov8Pytsko2n = 10Potapov took 8 of 10
S4Potapov1Pytsko9n = 10Pytsko took 9 of 10
S5Potapov5Pytsko0n = 5Potapov took 5 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home550%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricPotapovPytskoPotapov − PytskoBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match41.343.3−2.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPotapovPytskoBasisWin rate · lifetime216 / 458 vs 347 / 61747.2%56.2%216 / 458 vs 347 / 617Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.938.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
PytskoPotapov 1.91/Pytsko 1.80
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54.7%
Pytsko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Potapov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 10 · 01:30M. Potapov26571131I. Pytsko4211119113
LOct 7 · 09:35M. Potapov387111191I. Pytsko4311138113
WOct 6 · 16:05M. Potapov571118413113I. Pytsko56616111582
WSep 28 · 22:00M. Potapov46711115123I. Pytsko42116411102
WSep 26 · 08:25M. Potapov49127118113I. Pytsko48101171192
LSep 25 · 18:55M. Potapov31411791I. Pytsko4211911113
WSep 24 · 15:55M. Potapov46116117113I. Pytsko4051181152
LSep 22 · 21:45M. Potapov30661171I. Pytsko4211119113
WSep 21 · 18:25M. Potapov4311912113I. Pytsko356111081
WSep 21 · 01:45M. Potapov47511119113I. Pytsko4311791152
M. Potapov10
LOct 10 · 18:05M. Slozka2.381511711113M. Potapov1.53139111362LOct 10 · 17:05M. Potapov2.201231151D. Palii1.6114117113WOct 10 · 14:35M. Potapov2.10114118113D. Maltsev1.6771181142LOct 10 · 12:35M. Potapov1.67115671I. Fashchevskyi2.1061111113LOct 10 · 03:00D. Palii1.831212113M. Potapov1.83101070LOct 10 · 01:30M. Potapov1.91571131I. Pytsko1.8011119113WOct 9 · 23:30Y. Tebenko1.831111111162M. Potapov1.83134913113WOct 9 · 21:30D. Maltsev1.6141080M. Potapov2.201112113WOct 9 · 20:30O. Budnikov1.61511712112M. Potapov2.201151110133LOct 7 · 10:35O. Storozhenko1.53811611113M. Potapov2.3811611772
I. Pytsko10
LOct 10 · 18:35D. Maltsev3.2511116113I. Pytsko1.33741181LOct 10 · 17:35I. Fashchevskyi2.50121111123I. Pytsko1.501449101WOct 10 · 14:05D. Palii2.25711761I. Pytsko1.571171193WOct 10 · 12:05M. Slozka2.1012880I. Pytsko1.67141182WOct 10 · 02:30Y. Tebenko1.8061111862I. Pytsko1.91118811113WOct 10 · 01:30M. Potapov1.91571131I. Pytsko1.8011119113WOct 10 · 00:00O. Budnikov1.57861181I. Pytsko2.2511118113WOct 9 · 22:00D. Palii2.20711981I. Pytsko1.6111511113WOct 9 · 20:00D. Maltsev2.75112861I. Pytsko1.4091111113LOct 7 · 11:35I. Pytsko1.4411851172I. Fashchevskyi2.63911119113
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