TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Mykola Slozka vs Mykhailo Potapov 3-2 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 10Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
15131197111113116
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:54 and never touched: 62.4% is still 62.4%
Graded at full timeMykhailo Potapov to win
62.4%
62.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMykola Slozka above · Mykhailo Potapov below
Set 1 · 15-13
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 11-13
Set 5 · 11-6
Point 107 set 5, 11-6 · our read held Mykhailo Potapov at 62.4%
107 points played in total.
H2H Mykola Slozka 6–22 Mykhailo Potapov Mykola Slozka has won 6 of their 28 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 17:5462.4%Our read65.2%to break even at 1.533
short by 2.8pp65.2% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.533 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Potapov
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
6-22 in 28
Potapov
Wrong
gap of 16 in 28, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Slozka 1527 vs Potapov 1539
Potapov
Wrong
both rated, 12 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Slozka 40% vs Potapov 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Slozka 50% vs Potapov 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Slozka -3 · Potapov -1
Slozka
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% · Clear lean (leans Potapov) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Potapov form (40%) is below what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSlozka 2.375 / Potapov 1.533
Signal prob.38% / 62%
Edge (Potapov)-2.8pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13270657
Slozka2.38
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog43% won 82 of 189
Down 0–1, comes back26% 27 of 103
Down 0–2, comes back7% 4 of 55
Potapov1.53
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite59% won 53 of 90
Up 2–0, closes it93% 27 of 29
Up 1–0, closes it79% 46 of 58
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSlozka0wins
AwayPotapov10wins
5 of 10 to a deciderPotapov leads 10–0, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSlozkan = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayPotapov100%9 of 9
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Slozka1Potapov9n = 10Potapov took 9 of 10
S2Slozka4Potapov6n = 10Potapov took 6 of 10
S3Slozka3Potapov7n = 10Potapov took 7 of 10
S4Slozka3Potapov3n = 6split evenly
S5Slozka0Potapov5n = 5Potapov took 5 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away550%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricSlozkaPotapovS − PBasisWins010−10in 10 meetingsFirst set19−8of 10Avg pointsper match34.743.5−8.8per matchSweeps04−43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSlozkaPotapovBasisWin rate · lifetime348 / 769 vs 217 / 46045.3%47.2%348 / 769 vs 217 / 460Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.138.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
PotapovSlozka 2.38/Potapov 1.53
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
62.4%
Potapov · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Slozka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 2 · 10:05M. Slozka518111011112M. Potapov51119126133
LSep 1 · 15:05M. Slozka49121111692M. Potapov49147611113
LSep 1 · 03:00M. Slozka369116101M. Potapov4211811123
LAug 22 · 13:25M. Slozka4114116462M. Potapov541291111113
LAug 21 · 22:45M. Slozka4262141192M. Potapov541111129113
LAug 15 · 00:45M. Slozka4175121162M. Potapov501111107113
LJun 27 · 04:55M. Slozka156360M. Potapov331111113
LJun 26 · 12:25M. Slozka218490M. Potapov331111113
LJun 26 · 00:15M. Slozka2477100M. Potapov341111123
LJun 13 · 09:25M. Slozka2771190M. Potapov351113113
M. Slozka10
LOct 10 · 16:35M. Slozka2.3861111862D. Maltsev1.53119811113LOct 10 · 15:05M. Slozka2.209640D. Palii1.611111113LOct 10 · 13:35M. Slozka1.677570I. Fashchevskyi2.101111113LOct 10 · 12:05M. Slozka2.1012880I. Pytsko1.67141182WOct 10 · 02:45M. Slozka1.611511911113I. Fashchevskyi2.20131311382WOct 10 · 00:45A. Kotiash2.253611141M. Slozka1.5711119163LOct 9 · 23:45M. Slozka1.832111371O. Gazhula1.83111311113WOct 9 · 22:45V. Korobko2.2066110M. Slozka1.611111133WOct 9 · 21:15M. Slozka1.83121111113V. Moshovskyi1.831091371LOct 4 · 11:25M. Slozka2.50571171I. Fashchevskyi1.5011118113
M. Potapov10
LOct 10 · 17:05M. Potapov2.201231151D. Palii1.6114117113WOct 10 · 16:05M. Potapov1.91111210113I. Pytsko1.807101281WOct 10 · 14:35M. Potapov2.10114118113D. Maltsev1.6771181142LOct 10 · 12:35M. Potapov1.67115671I. Fashchevskyi2.1061111113LOct 10 · 03:00D. Palii1.831212113M. Potapov1.83101070LOct 10 · 01:30M. Potapov1.91571131I. Pytsko1.8011119113WOct 9 · 23:30Y. Tebenko1.831111111162M. Potapov1.83134913113WOct 9 · 21:30D. Maltsev1.6141080M. Potapov2.201112113WOct 9 · 20:30O. Budnikov1.61511712112M. Potapov2.201151110133LOct 7 · 10:35O. Storozhenko1.53811611113M. Potapov2.3811611772
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