TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Denys Maltsev vs Ivan Pytsko 3-1 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 10Finished
Form at publish
2–8Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
117114611118––
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:25 and never touched: 75.3% is still 75.3%
Graded at full timeIvan Pytsko to win
75.3%
75.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingDenys Maltsev above · Ivan Pytsko below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 69 set 4, 11-8 · our read held Ivan Pytsko at 75.3%
69 points played in total.
H2H Denys Maltsev 16–53 Ivan Pytsko Denys Maltsev has won 16 of their 69 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:2575.3%Our read75.0%to break even at 1.333
clears by 0.3pp75.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.333 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.33 (71%)
Pytsko
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
16-53 in 69
Pytsko
Wrong
gap of 37 in 69, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Maltsev 1492 vs Pytsko 1633
Pytsko
Wrong
both rated, 141 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Maltsev 40% vs Pytsko 60%
Pytsko
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Maltsev 20% vs Pytsko 70%
Pytsko
Wrong
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Maltsev +1 · Pytsko -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 75% · Strong (leans Pytsko) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Pytsko form (60%) is below what odds imply (75%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMaltsev 3.25 / Pytsko 1.333
Signal prob.25% / 75%
Edge (Pytsko)+0.3pp
Setka Cup · #13270558
Maltsev3.25
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog42% won 85 of 201
Down 0–1, comes back18% 17 of 93
Down 0–2, comes back9% 4 of 45
Pytsko1.33
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite54% won 90 of 166
Up 2–0, closes it96% 43 of 45
Up 1–0, closes it77% 69 of 90
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMaltsev2wins
AwayPytsko8wins
2 of 10 to a deciderPytsko leads 8–2, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMaltsev33.3%2 of 6
AwayPytsko100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Maltsev6Pytsko4n = 10Maltsev took 6 of 10
S2Maltsev3Pytsko7n = 10Pytsko took 7 of 10
S3Maltsev1Pytsko9n = 10Pytsko took 9 of 10
S4Maltsev2Pytsko5n = 7Pytsko took 5 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away550%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricMaltsevPytskoM − PBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match33.738.5−4.8per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMaltsevPytskoBasisWin rate · lifetime461 / 911 vs 347 / 61950.6%56.1%461 / 911 vs 347 / 619Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.038.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
PytskoMaltsev 3.25/Pytsko 1.33
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
75.3%
Pytsko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Maltsev won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 9 · 20:00D. Maltsev27112861I. Pytsko4291111113
WOct 7 · 06:35D. Maltsev351113113I. Pytsko2471160
LOct 6 · 14:05D. Maltsev35119961I. Pytsko4071111113
LOct 2 · 21:30D. Maltsev2991190I. Pytsko351113113
LSep 30 · 09:35D. Maltsev381210971I. Pytsko44101211113
LSep 29 · 17:35D. Maltsev30811381I. Pytsko3711411113
LSep 29 · 01:30D. Maltsev341158101I. Pytsko3841111123
LSep 26 · 04:55D. Maltsev3841171152I. Pytsko50119118113
WSep 25 · 13:25D. Maltsev46116711113I. Pytsko4191111732
LSep 24 · 13:55D. Maltsev2591060I. Pytsko341112113
D. Maltsev10
WOct 10 · 16:35M. Slozka2.3861111862D. Maltsev1.53119811113LOct 10 · 15:35D. Maltsev1.571211951I. Fashchevskyi2.2514611113LOct 10 · 14:35M. Potapov2.10114118113D. Maltsev1.6771181142WOct 10 · 13:05D. Maltsev2.10117119113D. Palii1.6771111162LOct 10 · 02:00D. Maltsev2.207115131O. Budnikov1.6111411153LOct 10 · 00:30D. Maltsev2.63811971Y. Tebenko1.4411711113LOct 9 · 23:00D. Maltsev2.25118111082D. Palii1.57811912113LOct 9 · 21:30D. Maltsev1.6141080M. Potapov2.201112113LOct 9 · 20:00D. Maltsev2.75112861I. Pytsko1.4091111113LOct 7 · 11:05Y. Tebenko1.731116113D. Maltsev2.0071430
I. Pytsko10
LOct 10 · 17:35I. Fashchevskyi2.50121111123I. Pytsko1.501449101LOct 10 · 16:05M. Potapov1.91111210113I. Pytsko1.807101281WOct 10 · 14:05D. Palii2.25711761I. Pytsko1.571171193WOct 10 · 12:05M. Slozka2.1012880I. Pytsko1.67141182WOct 10 · 02:30Y. Tebenko1.8061111862I. Pytsko1.91118811113WOct 10 · 01:30M. Potapov1.91571131I. Pytsko1.8011119113WOct 10 · 00:00O. Budnikov1.57861181I. Pytsko2.2511118113WOct 9 · 22:00D. Palii2.20711981I. Pytsko1.6111511113WOct 9 · 20:00D. Maltsev2.75112861I. Pytsko1.4091111113LOct 7 · 11:35I. Pytsko1.4411851172I. Fashchevskyi2.63911119113
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