TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Ivan Pytsko vs Ivan Fashchevskyi 2-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 7Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
119811511119711
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:33 and never touched: 67.7% is still 67.7%
Graded at full timeIvan Pytsko to win
67.7%
67.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingIvan Pytsko above · Ivan Fashchevskyi below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 7-11
Point 93 set 5, 7-11 · our read held Ivan Pytsko at 67.7%
93 points played in total.
H2H Ivan Pytsko 21–13 Ivan Fashchevskyi Ivan Fashchevskyi has won 13 of their 34 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:3367.7%Our read69.3%to break even at 1.444
short by 1.6pp69.3% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.444 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Pytsko
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
21-13 in 34
Pytsko
Wrong
gap of 8 in 34, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Pytsko 1620 vs Fashchevskyi 1448
Pytsko
Wrong
both rated, 172 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Pytsko 60% vs Fashchevskyi 20%
Pytsko
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Pytsko 70% vs Fashchevskyi 30%
Pytsko
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Pytsko +1 · Fashchevskyi -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 68% · Clear lean (leans Pytsko) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Fashchevskyi form (20%) is below what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPytsko 1.444 / Fashchevskyi 2.625
Signal prob.68% / 32%
Edge (Pytsko)-1.6pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13256099
Pytsko1.44
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite54% won 86 of 160
Up 2–0, closes it95% 41 of 43
Up 1–0, closes it77% 66 of 86
Fashchevskyi2.63
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog42% won 102 of 242
Down 0–1, comes back25% 32 of 126
Down 0–2, comes back8% 5 of 60
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePytsko7wins
AwayFashchevskyi3wins
3 of 10 to a deciderPytsko leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePytsko100%6 of 6
AwayFashchevskyi75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Pytsko6Fashchevskyi4n = 10Pytsko took 6 of 10
S2Pytsko8Fashchevskyi2n = 10Pytsko took 8 of 10
S3Pytsko7Fashchevskyi3n = 10Pytsko took 7 of 10
S4Pytsko1Fashchevskyi3n = 4Fashchevskyi took 3 of 4
S5Pytsko2Fashchevskyi1n = 3Pytsko took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home550%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricPytskoFashchevskyiP − FBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match37.334.5+2.8per matchSweeps51+43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPytskoFashchevskyiBasisWin rate · lifetime348 / 620 vs 318 / 65356.1%48.7%348 / 620 vs 318 / 653Avg sets wonper match2.22.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.738.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
PytskoPytsko 1.44/Fashchevskyi 2.63
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
67.7%
Pytsko · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Fashchevskyi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 6 · 17:35I. Pytsko351113113I. Fashchevskyi2781180
WOct 2 · 23:00I. Pytsko331111113I. Fashchevskyi165470
WSep 30 · 07:35I. Pytsko331111113I. Fashchevskyi248880
LSep 29 · 12:05I. Pytsko145450I. Fashchevskyi331111113
WSep 29 · 02:30I. Pytsko361213113I. Fashchevskyi28101170
WSep 24 · 11:55I. Pytsko47119113133I. Fashchevskyi50911811112
WSep 22 · 23:45I. Pytsko331111113I. Fashchevskyi227690
LSep 21 · 16:25I. Pytsko48712811102I. Fashchevskyi481110114123
WSep 20 · 22:15I. Pytsko56811206113I. Fashchevskyi54118181162
LSep 18 · 20:00I. Pytsko388111091I. Fashchevskyi4311912113
I. Pytsko10
WOct 7 · 09:35M. Potapov2.207111191I. Pytsko1.6111138113LOct 7 · 07:35O. Storozhenko1.6741111113I. Pytsko2.10116861LOct 7 · 06:35I. Pytsko1.3371160D. Maltsev3.251113113WOct 7 · 05:35Y. Tebenko1.806980I. Pytsko1.911111113WOct 6 · 18:35O. Storozhenko1.67841151I. Pytsko2.1011119113WOct 6 · 17:35I. Fashchevskyi2.5081180I. Pytsko1.501113113LOct 6 · 16:05M. Potapov2.101118413113I. Pytsko1.67616111582WOct 6 · 14:05D. Maltsev3.00119961I. Pytsko1.3671111113WOct 6 · 12:05V. Moshovskyi3.2571191152I. Pytsko1.33117117113WOct 3 · 02:00I. Pytsko2.10511116113Y. Tebenko1.6711691172
I. Fashchevskyi10
LOct 7 · 10:05I. Fashchevskyi2.2514119462D. Maltsev1.571261111113LOct 7 · 08:05Y. Tebenko1.531111123I. Fashchevskyi2.3898100WOct 7 · 06:05O. Storozhenko1.6171180I. Fashchevskyi2.201113113LOct 7 · 05:05M. Potapov1.8012117113I. Fashchevskyi1.911071151LOct 6 · 19:05D. Maltsev1.6112117113I. Fashchevskyi2.201091141LOct 6 · 17:35I. Fashchevskyi2.5081180I. Pytsko1.501113113LOct 6 · 15:35O. Storozhenko1.61711611113I. Fashchevskyi2.2011911742LOct 6 · 13:35V. Moshovskyi1.7311412113I. Fashchevskyi2.009111081WOct 6 · 12:35M. Potapov1.8061110111I. Fashchevskyi1.9111612133WOct 4 · 11:25M. Slozka2.50571171I. Fashchevskyi1.5011118113
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