TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Mykhailo Potapov vs Dmytro Palii 1-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 10Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1214311117511––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:03 and never touched: 60.9% is still 60.9%
Graded at full timeDmytro Palii to win
60.9%
60.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingMykhailo Potapov above · Dmytro Palii below
Set 1 · 12-14
Set 2 · 3-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 5-11
Point 74 set 4, 5-11 · our read held Dmytro Palii at 60.9%
74 points played in total.
H2H Mykhailo Potapov 4–5 Dmytro Palii Mykhailo Potapov has won 4 of their 9 meetings.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 17:0360.9%Our read61.9%to break even at 1.615
short by 1.0pp61.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.615 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 0 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Palii
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
4-5 in 9
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Potapov 1548 vs Palii 1626
Palii
Correct
both rated, 78 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Potapov 40% vs Palii 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Potapov 50% vs Palii 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Potapov +2 · Palii +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 4 silent, and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 61% · Slight lean (leans Palii) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Palii form (40%) is below what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPotapov 2.20 / Palii 1.615
Signal prob.39% / 61%
Edge (Palii)-1.0pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13271036
Potapov2.20
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog43% won 61 of 141
Down 0–1, comes back19% 14 of 74
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 34
Palii1.61
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite57% won 26 of 46
Up 2–0, closes it86% 12 of 14
Up 1–0, closes it67% 16 of 24
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 9 meetings
HomePotapov4wins
AwayPalii5wins
1 of 9 to a deciderPalii leads 5–4, and 1 of those 9 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePotapov100%4 of 4
AwayPalii100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 9 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Potapov4Palii5n = 9Palii took 5 of 9
S2Potapov5Palii4n = 9Potapov took 5 of 9
S3Potapov4Palii5n = 9Palii took 5 of 9
S4Potapov3Palii2n = 5Potapov took 3 of 5
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 9 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 9. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home222%
3–1Four sets, home222%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away111%
1–3Four sets, away222%
0–3Straight, away222%
These 9 meetings
MetricPotapovPaliiPotapov − PaliiBasisWins45−1in 9 meetingsFirst set45−1of 9Avg pointsper match34.732.9+1.8per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPotapovPaliiBasisWin rate · lifetime217 / 459 vs 139 / 23347.3%59.7%217 / 459 vs 139 / 233Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.936.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
PaliiPotapov 2.20/Palii 1.61
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
60.9%
Palii · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Palii won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
LOct 10 · 03:00M. Potapov27101070D. Palii351212113
LJul 3 · 13:55M. Potapov4381271152D. Palii521110119113
LJul 2 · 20:45M. Potapov2110920D. Palii341211113
WJun 30 · 08:25M. Potapov331111113D. Palii268990
LJun 29 · 15:55M. Potapov341011851D. Palii4012611113
LJun 18 · 06:55M. Potapov38911991D. Palii4111811113
WJun 17 · 16:55M. Potapov4211911113D. Palii27711451
WJun 13 · 10:25M. Potapov4111811113D. Palii29611571
WJun 11 · 20:45M. Potapov331111113D. Palii126330
M. Potapov10
LOct 10 · 18:05M. Slozka2.381511711113M. Potapov1.53139111362WOct 10 · 16:05M. Potapov1.91111210113I. Pytsko1.807101281WOct 10 · 14:35M. Potapov2.10114118113D. Maltsev1.6771181142LOct 10 · 12:35M. Potapov1.67115671I. Fashchevskyi2.1061111113LOct 10 · 03:00D. Palii1.831212113M. Potapov1.83101070LOct 10 · 01:30M. Potapov1.91571131I. Pytsko1.8011119113WOct 9 · 23:30Y. Tebenko1.831111111162M. Potapov1.83134913113WOct 9 · 21:30D. Maltsev1.6141080M. Potapov2.201112113WOct 9 · 20:30O. Budnikov1.61511712112M. Potapov2.201151110133LOct 7 · 10:35O. Storozhenko1.53811611113M. Potapov2.3811611772
D. Palii10
LOct 10 · 19:05D. Palii1.8012117662I. Fashchevskyi1.911061111113WOct 10 · 15:05M. Slozka2.209640D. Palii1.611111113LOct 10 · 14:05D. Palii2.25711761I. Pytsko1.571171193LOct 10 · 13:05D. Maltsev2.10117119113D. Palii1.6771111162WOct 10 · 03:00D. Palii1.831212113M. Potapov1.83101070LOct 10 · 01:00O. Budnikov1.9111911143D. Palii1.806119121WOct 9 · 23:00D. Maltsev2.25118111082D. Palii1.57811912113LOct 9 · 22:00D. Palii2.20711981I. Pytsko1.6111511113WOct 9 · 21:00Y. Tebenko1.6177110D. Palii2.201111133WOct 4 · 10:55A. Kotiash3.008940D. Palii1.361111113
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