TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Mykhailo Potapov vs Ivan Fashchevskyi 1-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 10Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
116511611711––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:30 and never touched: 57.2% is still 57.2%
Graded at full timeMykhailo Potapov to win
57.2%
57.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMykhailo Potapov above · Ivan Fashchevskyi below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 7-11
Point 68 set 4, 7-11 · our read held Mykhailo Potapov at 57.2%
68 points played in total.
H2H Mykhailo Potapov 15–19 Ivan Fashchevskyi Mykhailo Potapov has won 15 of their 34 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:3057.2%Our read60.0%to break even at 1.666
short by 2.8pp60.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.666 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Potapov
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
15-19 in 34
Fashchevskyi
Correct
gap of 4 in 34, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Potapov 1538 vs Fashchevskyi 1460
Potapov
Wrong
both rated, 78 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Potapov 60% vs Fashchevskyi 40%
Potapov
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Potapov 40% vs Fashchevskyi 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Potapov -2 · Fashchevskyi -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% · Slight lean (leans Potapov) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPotapov 1.666 / Fashchevskyi 2.10
Signal prob.57% / 43%
Edge (Potapov)-2.8pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13270543
Potapov1.67
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite59% won 53 of 90
Up 2–0, closes it93% 27 of 29
Up 1–0, closes it79% 46 of 58
Fashchevskyi2.10
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog43% won 106 of 248
Down 0–1, comes back26% 33 of 128
Down 0–2, comes back8% 5 of 60
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePotapov5wins
AwayFashchevskyi5wins
2 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePotapov100%5 of 5
AwayFashchevskyi100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Potapov5Fashchevskyi5n = 10split evenly
S2Potapov5Fashchevskyi5n = 10split evenly
S3Potapov5Fashchevskyi5n = 10split evenly
S4Potapov6Fashchevskyi2n = 8Potapov took 6 of 8
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricPotapovFashchevskyiP − FBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match38.237.3+0.9per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPotapovFashchevskyiBasisWin rate · lifetime215 / 456 vs 321 / 65947.2%48.7%215 / 456 vs 321 / 659Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.938.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
PotapovPotapov 1.67/Fashchevskyi 2.10
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
57.2%
Potapov · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Fashchevskyi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 7 · 05:05M. Potapov4112117113I. Fashchevskyi331071151
LOct 6 · 12:35M. Potapov3861110111I. Fashchevskyi4211612133
WSep 28 · 21:00M. Potapov4111811113I. Fashchevskyi33711871
LSep 24 · 17:55M. Potapov387121181I. Fashchevskyi4411148113
WSep 23 · 00:45M. Potapov3811412113I. Fashchevskyi337111051
LSep 21 · 11:55M. Potapov4661281282I. Fashchevskyi5311101110113
WSep 21 · 03:15M. Potapov341111123I. Fashchevskyi2679100
LSep 9 · 08:35M. Potapov4381161172I. Fashchevskyi45115117113
LSep 8 · 03:15M. Potapov225890I. Fashchevskyi331111113
WSep 4 · 01:45M. Potapov4111811113I. Fashchevskyi31811661
M. Potapov10
LOct 10 · 18:05M. Slozka2.381511711113M. Potapov1.53139111362LOct 10 · 17:05M. Potapov2.201231151D. Palii1.6114117113WOct 10 · 16:05M. Potapov1.91111210113I. Pytsko1.807101281WOct 10 · 14:35M. Potapov2.10114118113D. Maltsev1.6771181142LOct 10 · 03:00D. Palii1.831212113M. Potapov1.83101070LOct 10 · 01:30M. Potapov1.91571131I. Pytsko1.8011119113WOct 9 · 23:30Y. Tebenko1.831111111162M. Potapov1.83134913113WOct 9 · 21:30D. Maltsev1.6141080M. Potapov2.201112113WOct 9 · 20:30O. Budnikov1.61511712112M. Potapov2.201151110133LOct 7 · 10:35O. Storozhenko1.53811611113M. Potapov2.3811611772
I. Fashchevskyi10
WOct 10 · 19:05D. Palii1.8012117662I. Fashchevskyi1.911061111113WOct 10 · 17:35I. Fashchevskyi2.50121111123I. Pytsko1.501449101WOct 10 · 15:35D. Maltsev1.571211951I. Fashchevskyi2.2514611113WOct 10 · 13:35M. Slozka1.677570I. Fashchevskyi2.101111113LOct 10 · 02:45M. Slozka1.611511911113I. Fashchevskyi2.20131311382LOct 10 · 01:45O. Gazhula1.53121165113I. Fashchevskyi2.38108111182WOct 10 · 00:15V. Korobko1.8010890I. Fashchevskyi1.911211113WOct 9 · 22:15V. Moshovskyi1.73811209102I. Fashchevskyi2.001181811123LOct 9 · 20:15A. Kotiash2.631011119113I. Fashchevskyi1.4412891162WOct 7 · 11:35I. Pytsko1.4411851172I. Fashchevskyi2.63911119113
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