TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Volodymyr Korobko vs Ivan Fashchevskyi 0-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 10Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
1012811911––––
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 00:06 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeVolodymyr Korobko to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingVolodymyr Korobko above · Ivan Fashchevskyi below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Point 61 set 3, 9-11 · our read held Volodymyr Korobko at 54.0%
61 points played in total.
H2H Volodymyr Korobko 7–6 Ivan Fashchevskyi Ivan Fashchevskyi has won 6 of their 13 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 00:0654.0%Our read55.6%to break even at 1.80
short by 1.6pp55.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.80 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Korobko
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
7-6 in 13
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Korobko 1493 vs Fashchevskyi 1463
Korobko
Wrong
both rated, 30 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Korobko 40% vs Fashchevskyi 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Korobko 70% vs Fashchevskyi 30%
Korobko
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Korobko -1 · Fashchevskyi +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Korobko) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Fashchevskyi form (40%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKorobko 1.80 / Fashchevskyi 1.909
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Korobko)-1.6pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13266134
Korobko1.80
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite49% won 35 of 71
Up 2–0, closes it86% 18 of 21
Up 1–0, closes it78% 28 of 36
Fashchevskyi1.91
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog42% won 104 of 245
Down 0–1, comes back26% 33 of 127
Down 0–2, comes back8% 5 of 60
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKorobko5wins
AwayFashchevskyi5wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKorobko80%4 of 5
AwayFashchevskyi80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Korobko5Fashchevskyi5n = 10split evenly
S2Korobko7Fashchevskyi3n = 10Korobko took 7 of 10
S3Korobko4Fashchevskyi6n = 10Fashchevskyi took 6 of 10
S4Korobko5Fashchevskyi1n = 6Korobko took 5 of 6
S5Korobko0Fashchevskyi3n = 3Fashchevskyi took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricKorobkoFashchevskyiK − FBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match37.134.0+3.1per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKorobkoFashchevskyiBasisWin rate · lifetime206 / 462 vs 320 / 65644.6%48.8%206 / 462 vs 320 / 656Avg sets wonper match1.82.0per matchAvg pointsper match34.638.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KorobkoKorobko 1.80/Fashchevskyi 1.91
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Korobko · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Fashchevskyi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 28 · 22:30V. Korobko5311111110102I. Fashchevskyi49931312123
WSep 25 · 20:45V. Korobko4291111113I. Fashchevskyi27113671
LSep 21 · 01:15V. Korobko207670I. Fashchevskyi331111113
WSep 14 · 20:30V. Korobko4211812113I. Fashchevskyi346111071
WSep 8 · 01:15V. Korobko331111113I. Fashchevskyi207850
WSep 3 · 20:45V. Korobko4011117113I. Fashchevskyi31751181
LAug 29 · 21:30V. Korobko4581191162I. Fashchevskyi44118113113
LAug 24 · 23:00V. Korobko4551281192I. Fashchevskyi471110114113
WAug 21 · 01:15V. Korobko341112113I. Fashchevskyi2261060
LAug 2 · 02:45V. Korobko175840I. Fashchevskyi331111113
V. Korobko10
LOct 9 · 22:45V. Korobko2.2066110M. Slozka1.611111133WOct 9 · 20:45V. Korobko1.73771111113O. Gazhula2.0011115982LOct 3 · 01:48D. Palii1.611211113V. Korobko2.2010780LOct 3 · 00:45O. Sydorchuk2.25101411113V. Korobko1.571212671WOct 2 · 23:15V. Korobko2.751111113D. Palii1.407770WOct 2 · 21:45V. Korobko2.001111133O. Gazhula1.7399110WOct 2 · 20:15V. Korobko1.671110911113A. Kotiash2.1031211692WSep 29 · 02:00V. Moshovskyi1.535970V. Korobko2.381111113WSep 29 · 01:00V. Korobko3.001011118113M. Potapov1.3612981182WSep 29 · 00:00V. Korobko2.201212811113I. Pytsko1.61141011782
I. Fashchevskyi10
WOct 9 · 22:15V. Moshovskyi1.73811209102I. Fashchevskyi2.001181811123LOct 9 · 20:15A. Kotiash2.631011119113I. Fashchevskyi1.4412891162WOct 7 · 11:35I. Pytsko1.4411851172I. Fashchevskyi2.63911119113LOct 7 · 10:05I. Fashchevskyi2.2514119462D. Maltsev1.571261111113LOct 7 · 08:05Y. Tebenko1.531111123I. Fashchevskyi2.3898100WOct 7 · 06:05O. Storozhenko1.6171180I. Fashchevskyi2.201113113LOct 7 · 05:05M. Potapov1.8012117113I. Fashchevskyi1.911071151LOct 6 · 19:05D. Maltsev1.6112117113I. Fashchevskyi2.201091141LOct 6 · 17:35I. Fashchevskyi2.5081180I. Pytsko1.501113113LOct 6 · 15:35O. Storozhenko1.61711611113I. Fashchevskyi2.2011911742
Upcoming Matches
V. Korobko
I. Fashchevskyi
Oct 10 · 01:45I. Fashchevskyi2.38O. Gazhula1.53—Oct 10 · 02:45I. Fashchevskyi2.20M. Slozka1.61—Oct 10 · 12:35I. Fashchevskyi2.00M. Potapov1.73—Oct 10 · 13:35I. Fashchevskyi2.20M. Slozka1.61—Oct 10 · 15:35I. Fashchevskyi2.25D. Maltsev1.57—Oct 10 · 17:35I. Fashchevskyi2.50I. Pytsko1.50—Oct 10 · 19:05I. Fashchevskyi2.10D. Palii1.67—
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