TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Volodymyr Korobko vs Dmytro Palii 3-0 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 2Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 5
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
117117117––––
Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:05 and never touched: 69.1% is still 69.1%
Graded at full timeDmytro Palii to win
69.1%
69.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingVolodymyr Korobko above · Dmytro Palii below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 11-7
Point 54 set 3, 11-7 · our read held Dmytro Palii at 69.1%
54 points played in total.
H2H Volodymyr Korobko 0–2 Dmytro Palii Volodymyr Korobko has won 0 of their 2 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 23:0569.1%Our read71.4%to break even at 1.40
short by 2.3pp71.4% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.40 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Palii
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
0-2 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Korobko 1502 vs Palii 1604
Palii
Wrong
both rated, 103 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Korobko 100% vs Palii 100%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Korobko 60% vs Palii 90%
Palii
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Korobko +5 · Palii +5
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 69% · Clear lean (leans Palii) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Palii form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (71%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKorobko 2.75 / Palii 1.40
Signal prob.31% / 69%
Edge (Palii)-2.3pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13228880
Korobko2.75
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 5
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog37% won 42 of 115
Down 0–1, comes back15% 11 of 72
Down 0–2, comes back6% 3 of 52
Palii1.40
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 5
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite53% won 18 of 34
Up 2–0, closes it82% 9 of 11
Up 1–0, closes it68% 13 of 19
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeKorobko0wins
AwayPalii2wins
Palii leads 2–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away1
0–3Straight, away1
These 2 meetings
MetricKorobkoPaliiK − PBasisWins02−2in 2 meetingsFirst set02−2of 2Avg pointsper match33.541.5−8.0per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKorobkoPaliiBasisWin rate · lifetime209 / 467 vs 125 / 21244.8%59%209 / 467 vs 125 / 212Avg sets wonper match1.82.2per matchAvg pointsper match34.736.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
PaliiKorobko 2.75/Palii 1.40
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
69.1%
Palii · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Korobko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
LSep 26 · 01:15V. Korobko2055100D. Palii341111123
LSep 18 · 20:45V. Korobko4713119141D. Palii4915711163
V. Korobko10
LOct 3 · 00:45O. Sydorchuk2.25101411113V. Korobko1.571212671WOct 2 · 21:45V. Korobko2.001111133O. Gazhula1.7399110WOct 2 · 20:15V. Korobko1.671110911113A. Kotiash2.1031211692WSep 29 · 02:00V. Moshovskyi1.535970V. Korobko2.381111113WSep 29 · 01:00V. Korobko3.001011118113M. Potapov1.3612981182WSep 29 · 00:00V. Korobko2.201212811113I. Pytsko1.61141011782LSep 28 · 22:30V. Korobko1.6111111110102I. Fashchevskyi2.20931312123LSep 28 · 20:30V. Korobko3.50113571D. Maltsev1.2871111113WSep 26 · 02:15S. Prus1.912970V. Korobko1.801111113LSep 26 · 01:15V. Korobko2.0055100D. Palii1.731111123
D. Palii10
WOct 3 · 00:15D. Palii1.57111111113A. Kotiash2.25136741WOct 2 · 22:15O. Sydorchuk2.50111267122D. Palii1.507101111143WOct 2 · 20:45O. Gazhula1.83961341D. Palii1.83111111113WSep 27 · 11:25D. Palii1.361111113I. Kvak3.009780WSep 27 · 09:25O. Gazhula1.611111871D. Palii2.2081311113WSep 27 · 07:25O. Sydorchuk2.00861141D. Palii1.7311114113LSep 27 · 06:25D. Palii2.008350M. Slozka1.731111113WSep 27 · 05:25S. Prus2.63981271D. Palii1.44111110113WSep 26 · 18:25D. Palii2.0051111993I. Fashchevskyi1.7311681182WSep 26 · 01:15V. Korobko2.0055100D. Palii1.731111123
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