Dmytro Palii vs Andrii Kotiash 3-1

TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup

Setka Cup

Played Oct 3Finished

Dmytro Palii

Home

1.57

At publish

Lost last 1

Form at publish

8–2Last 10Lost last 1

Final

3 – 1

Set by set

1113116117114––

Andrii Kotiash

Away

2.25

At publish

Won last 2

Form at publish

3–7Last 10Won last 2

The read, and what happenedsealed at 00:11 and never touched: 61.7% is still 61.7%

Graded at full time

Dmytro Palii to win

61.7%

Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.

Read

Right

not sent

«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.

How it is goingDmytro Palii above · Andrii Kotiash below

Set 1 · 11-13

Set 2 · 11-6

Set 3 · 11-7

Set 4 · 11-4

Point 74 set 4, 11-4 · our read held Dmytro Palii at 61.7%

74 points played in total.

The pickNothing sent

Sealed 00:11

61.7%Our read63.7%to break even at 1.571

short by 2.0pp

63.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.571 they are the same number)

What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent

SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way

Market

1.57 (59%)

Palii

Correct

no bar to clear: a priced side always votes

H2H

No meetings

—

No value

they have never met

Rating (G2)

Palii 1587 vs Kotiash 1441

Palii

Correct

both rated, 145 points apart, no bar to clear

Form (L5)

Palii 80% vs Kotiash 40%

Palii

Correct

40pp gap, over the 15pp bar

Form (L10)

Palii 80% vs Kotiash 30%

Palii

Correct

50pp gap, over the 15pp bar

Streak

Palii -1 · Kotiash +2

—

Too close

neither holds a run of 3 on their own

Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.

This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.

4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.

Signal confidence: 62% · Slight lean (leans Palii) · sealed before the serve

Decision Summary

Why this prediction

Palii form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (64%)

Market vs Signals

Market oddsPalii 1.571 / Kotiash 2.25

Signal prob.62% / 38%

Edge (Palii)-2.0pp (anti-value)

Setka Cup · #13229089

Palii1.57

80%won 8 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

oldest → newest

50%takes the first set · 5 of 10

As favourite53% won 18 of 34

Up 2–0, closes it82% 9 of 11

Up 1–0, closes it68% 13 of 19

Kotiash2.25

30%won 3 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

Won last 2

oldest → newest

20%takes the first set · 2 of 10

As underdog37% won 47 of 127

Down 0–1, comes back24% 19 of 79

Down 0–2, comes back12% 6 of 50

Head to head

H2H window

First meeting

These two have never played each other. It is not a loading failure: there is no history. The career card below still stands: it is the only comparison available.

Career, not this matchup

MetricPaliiKotiashBasisWin rate · lifetime125 / 213 vs 216 / 46058.7%47%125 / 213 vs 216 / 460Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.537.0per match

Deep Dive by Market

Each market builds on the overview above

Forecast

History

Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction

Match Winner

Palii

Palii 1.57/Kotiash 2.25

Read onlywould have hit

What we said

61.7%

Palii · sealed before the serve

What happened

3–1

Palii won

Total sets · Score

These two have never met.

The three history tabs read the same head-to-head record, so they go down together: one message, not three empty cards. The three forecast tabs are unaffected and stay open.

Recent Results

D. Palii10