TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Mykola Slozka vs Ivan Fashchevskyi 0-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 10Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
711511711––––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:32 and never touched: 57.0% is still 57.0%
Graded at full timeMykola Slozka to win
57.0%
57.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMykola Slozka above · Ivan Fashchevskyi below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 7-11
Point 52 set 3, 7-11 · our read held Mykola Slozka at 57.0%
52 points played in total.
H2H Mykola Slozka 23–13 Ivan Fashchevskyi Ivan Fashchevskyi has won 13 of their 36 meetings.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 13:3257.0%Our read60.0%to break even at 1.666
short by 3.0pp60.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.666 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Slozka
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
23-13 in 36
Slozka
Wrong
gap of 10 in 36, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Slozka 1567 vs Fashchevskyi 1474
Slozka
Wrong
both rated, 93 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Slozka 80% vs Fashchevskyi 60%
Slozka
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Slozka 60% vs Fashchevskyi 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Slozka +2 · Fashchevskyi +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 57% · Slight lean (leans Slozka) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Fashchevskyi form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSlozka 1.666 / Fashchevskyi 2.10
Signal prob.57% / 43%
Edge (Slozka)-3.0pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13270581
Slozka1.67
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite62% won 77 of 125
Up 2–0, closes it86% 38 of 44
Up 1–0, closes it81% 59 of 73
Fashchevskyi2.10
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog43% won 106 of 248
Down 0–1, comes back26% 33 of 128
Down 0–2, comes back8% 5 of 60
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSlozka7wins
AwayFashchevskyi3wins
6 of 10 to a deciderSlozka leads 7–3, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSlozka85.7%6 of 7
AwayFashchevskyi66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Slozka7Fashchevskyi3n = 10Slozka took 7 of 10
S2Slozka3Fashchevskyi7n = 10Fashchevskyi took 7 of 10
S3Slozka6Fashchevskyi4n = 10Slozka took 6 of 10
S4Slozka4Fashchevskyi6n = 10Fashchevskyi took 6 of 10
S5Slozka5Fashchevskyi1n = 6Slozka took 5 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home550%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricSlozkaFashchevskyiS − FBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match45.341.8+3.5per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSlozkaFashchevskyiBasisWin rate · lifetime348 / 766 vs 322 / 66045.4%48.8%348 / 766 vs 322 / 660Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.138.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
SlozkaSlozka 1.67/Fashchevskyi 2.10
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
57%
Slozka · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Fashchevskyi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 10 · 02:45M. Slozka571511911113I. Fashchevskyi48131311382
LOct 4 · 11:25M. Slozka30571171I. Fashchevskyi4111118113
LOct 3 · 18:25M. Slozka4581171182I. Fashchevskyi44117114113
WOct 2 · 22:00M. Slozka46511118113I. Fashchevskyi4311671182
WSep 30 · 06:05M. Slozka3911611113I. Fashchevskyi25611531
WSep 29 · 18:05M. Slozka551171110163I. Fashchevskyi52711812142
LSep 26 · 17:25M. Slozka391178131I. Fashchevskyi4361111153
WSep 26 · 01:45M. Slozka44111111113I. Fashchevskyi34781361
WSep 11 · 18:55M. Slozka501171110113I. Fashchevskyi4691151292
WSep 10 · 23:15M. Slozka48134119113I. Fashchevskyi42111151142
M. Slozka10
WOct 10 · 18:05M. Slozka2.381511711113M. Potapov1.53139111362LOct 10 · 16:35M. Slozka2.3861111862D. Maltsev1.53119811113LOct 10 · 15:05M. Slozka2.209640D. Palii1.611111113LOct 10 · 12:05M. Slozka2.1012880I. Pytsko1.67141182WOct 10 · 02:45M. Slozka1.611511911113I. Fashchevskyi2.20131311382WOct 10 · 00:45A. Kotiash2.253611141M. Slozka1.5711119163LOct 9 · 23:45M. Slozka1.832111371O. Gazhula1.83111311113WOct 9 · 22:45V. Korobko2.2066110M. Slozka1.611111133WOct 9 · 21:15M. Slozka1.83121111113V. Moshovskyi1.831091371LOct 4 · 11:25M. Slozka2.50571171I. Fashchevskyi1.5011118113
I. Fashchevskyi10
WOct 10 · 19:05D. Palii1.8012117662I. Fashchevskyi1.911061111113WOct 10 · 17:35I. Fashchevskyi2.50121111123I. Pytsko1.501449101WOct 10 · 15:35D. Maltsev1.571211951I. Fashchevskyi2.2514611113WOct 10 · 12:35M. Potapov1.67115671I. Fashchevskyi2.1061111113LOct 10 · 02:45M. Slozka1.611511911113I. Fashchevskyi2.20131311382LOct 10 · 01:45O. Gazhula1.53121165113I. Fashchevskyi2.38108111182WOct 10 · 00:15V. Korobko1.8010890I. Fashchevskyi1.911211113WOct 9 · 22:15V. Moshovskyi1.73811209102I. Fashchevskyi2.001181811123LOct 9 · 20:15A. Kotiash2.631011119113I. Fashchevskyi1.4412891162WOct 4 · 11:25M. Slozka2.50571171I. Fashchevskyi1.5011118113
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