TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Maksym Khomenko vs Yurii Parahailo 3-2 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 10Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1138117111191210
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:13 and never touched: 77.4% is still 77.4%
Graded at full timeMaksym Khomenko to win
77.4%
77.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingMaksym Khomenko above · Yurii Parahailo below
Set 1 · 11-3
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 12-10
Point 93 set 5, 12-10 · our read held Maksym Khomenko at 77.4%
93 points played in total.
H2H Maksym Khomenko 74–15 Yurii Parahailo Yurii Parahailo has won 15 of their 89 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:1377.4%Our read77.8%to break even at 1.285
short by 0.4pp77.8% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.285 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.28 (73%)
Khomenko
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
74-15 in 89
Khomenko
Correct
gap of 59 in 89, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Khomenko 1623 vs Parahailo 1561
Khomenko
Correct
both rated, 62 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Khomenko 40% vs Parahailo 80%
Parahailo
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Khomenko 60% vs Parahailo 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Khomenko +1 · Parahailo +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 77% · Strong (leans Khomenko) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Parahailo form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (29%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKhomenko 1.285 / Parahailo 3.50
Signal prob.77% / 23%
Edge (Khomenko)-0.4pp
Setka Cup · #13271083
Khomenko1.28
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Oct 09)
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite67% won 84 of 126
Up 2–0, closes it100% 52 of 52
Up 1–0, closes it89% 62 of 70
Parahailo3.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Oct 09)
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog36% won 64 of 178
Down 0–1, comes back18% 16 of 88
Down 0–2, comes back7% 4 of 59
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKhomenko8wins
AwayParahailo2wins
4 of 10 to a deciderKhomenko leads 8–2, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKhomenko83.3%5 of 6
AwayParahailo25%1 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Khomenko6Parahailo4n = 10Khomenko took 6 of 10
S2Khomenko7Parahailo3n = 10Khomenko took 7 of 10
S3Khomenko6Parahailo4n = 10Khomenko took 6 of 10
S4Khomenko7Parahailo1n = 8Khomenko took 7 of 8
S5Khomenko2Parahailo2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricKhomenkoParahailoK − PBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match41.333.5+7.8per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKhomenkoParahailoBasisWin rate · lifetime438 / 821 vs 408 / 81653.4%50%438 / 821 vs 408 / 816Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.437.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KhomenkoKhomenko 1.28/Parahailo 3.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
77.4%
Khomenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Khomenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 10 · 20:30M. Khomenko49118711123Y. Parahailo44311119102
LOct 9 · 00:15M. Khomenko4051151182Y. Parahailo46116117113
WOct 5 · 08:35M. Khomenko331111113Y. Parahailo194690
WOct 4 · 18:05M. Khomenko48781111113Y. Parahailo3711116542
WOct 4 · 00:00M. Khomenko3911116113Y. Parahailo28671141
WSep 28 · 10:35M. Khomenko3741111113Y. Parahailo29114681
WSep 27 · 18:35M. Khomenko3811115113Y. Parahailo29281181
WSep 27 · 02:00M. Khomenko4291111113Y. Parahailo28115661
WSep 19 · 20:30M. Khomenko331111113Y. Parahailo249780
LSep 14 · 10:35M. Khomenko541112128112Y. Parahailo513141011133
M. Khomenko10
WOct 9 · 02:15V. Kovalchuk1.838131181M. Khomenko1.83111113113LOct 9 · 01:15M. Khomenko2.2515116882D. Shchegelskyi1.571361111113LOct 9 · 00:15M. Khomenko1.2551151182Y. Parahailo3.75116117113WOct 8 · 22:45M. Khomenko1.5711411113Y. Tebenko2.25611571LOct 8 · 20:45M. Khomenko1.3312340O. Storozhenko3.251411113WOct 5 · 10:35V. Kovalchuk1.911161491M. Khomenko1.8061116113LOct 5 · 09:35M. Khomenko2.2512512862D. Shchegelskyi1.5710111011113WOct 5 · 08:35M. Khomenko1.251111113Y. Parahailo3.754690WOct 5 · 07:05M. Khomenko1.53116712113Y. Tebenko2.38511111092WOct 5 · 05:05M. Khomenko1.221111113Y. Kolos4.002940
Y. Parahailo10
WOct 9 · 02:45Y. Tebenko1.83611591Y. Parahailo1.8311611113LOct 9 · 01:45O. Storozhenko1.8391111113Y. Parahailo1.83117971WOct 9 · 00:15M. Khomenko1.2551151182Y. Parahailo3.75116117113WOct 8 · 22:15D. Shchegelskyi2.2010127101Y. Parahailo1.61121011123WOct 8 · 20:15V. Kovalchuk2.635250Y. Parahailo1.441111113LOct 5 · 11:05Y. Tebenko1.83111253113Y. Parahailo1.83910111132LOct 5 · 10:05Y. Kolos1.331111113Y. Parahailo3.259670LOct 5 · 08:35M. Khomenko1.251111113Y. Parahailo3.754690LOct 5 · 06:35D. Shchegelskyi2.101011211113Y. Parahailo1.6712911972WOct 5 · 04:35V. Kovalchuk2.506760Y. Parahailo1.501111113
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