TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Oleksandr Alieksieev vs Oleksandr Storozhenko 3-0 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 10Finished
Form at publish
8–2Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1210117116––––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:54 and never touched: 75.3% is still 75.3%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Alieksieev to win
75.3%
75.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingOleksandr Alieksieev above · Oleksandr Storozhenko below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 11-6
Point 57 set 3, 11-6 · our read held Oleksandr Alieksieev at 75.3%
57 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Alieksieev 7–0 Oleksandr Storozhenko Oleksandr Storozhenko has won 0 of their 7 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:5475.3%Our read75.0%to break even at 1.333
clears by 0.3pp75.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.333 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.33 (71%)
Alieksieev
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
7-0 in 7
Alieksieev
Correct
gap of 7 in 7, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Alieksieev 1748 vs Storozhenko 1599
Alieksieev
Correct
both rated, 150 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Alieksieev 80% vs Storozhenko 60%
Alieksieev
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Alieksieev 80% vs Storozhenko 60%
Alieksieev
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Alieksieev -1 · Storozhenko -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 75% · Strong (leans Alieksieev) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Storozhenko form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (31%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsAlieksieev 1.333 / Storozhenko 3.25
Signal prob.75% / 25%
Edge (Alieksieev)+0.3pp
Setka Cup · #13270503
Alieksieev1.33
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 54 days ago (Aug 17) · back after a break
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite71% won 52 of 73
Up 2–0, closes it100% 30 of 30
Up 1–0, closes it95% 40 of 42
Storozhenko3.25
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Oct 09)
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog46% won 51 of 110
Down 0–1, comes back23% 15 of 65
Down 0–2, comes back10% 4 of 39
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeAlieksieev7wins
AwayStorozhenko0wins
1 of 7 to a deciderAlieksieev leads 7–0, and 1 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeAlieksieev100%6 of 6
AwayStorozhenkon = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Alieksieev6Storozhenko1n = 7Alieksieev took 6 of 7
S2Alieksieev6Storozhenko1n = 7Alieksieev took 6 of 7
S3Alieksieev6Storozhenko1n = 7Alieksieev took 6 of 7
S4
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home571%
3–1Four sets, home114%
3–2Decider, home114%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 7 meetings
MetricAlieksieevStorozhenkoA − SBasisWins70+7in 7 meetingsFirst set61+5of 7Avg pointsper match38.327.0+11.3per matchSweeps50+53–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricAlieksieevStorozhenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime114 / 187 vs 306 / 58361%52.5%114 / 187 vs 306 / 583Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.939.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
AlieksieevAlieksieev 1.33/Storozhenko 3.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
75.3%
Alieksieev · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Alieksieev won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
WOct 10 · 20:00O. Alieksieev341211113O. Storozhenko2310760
WJul 4 · 10:55O. Alieksieev331111113O. Storozhenko216690
WJul 3 · 15:25O. Alieksieev331111113O. Storozhenko162860
WJul 2 · 20:15O. Alieksieev50811713113O. Storozhenko42113111162
WJun 17 · 09:35O. Alieksieev47111411113O. Storozhenko36416881
WJun 16 · 19:05O. Alieksieev331111113O. Storozhenko198470
WJun 16 · 00:30O. Alieksieev381212143O. Storozhenko321010120
O. Alieksieev10
LAug 17 · 10:14M. Khomenko4.0012611113O. Alieksieev1.221011571WAug 17 · 09:05V. Kovalchuk2.25111015792O. Alieksieev1.579121311113WAug 17 · 07:35O. Alieksieev1.44111188113O. Rodin2.6379111152WAug 17 · 06:05O. Alieksieev1.301111113M. Khomenko3.407640WAug 17 · 04:35O. Alieksieev1.539111315153Y. Vorsuliak2.381121513132LAug 16 · 17:15Y. Vorsuliak1.53119811113O. Alieksieev2.3871111632WAug 16 · 15:35Y. Kolos2.639950O. Alieksieev1.441111113WAug 16 · 14:35O. Alieksieev1.50711134113Y. Vorsuliak2.50117111172WAug 16 · 13:35M. Khomenko2.633470O. Alieksieev1.441111113WAug 16 · 12:35O. Alieksieev1.531111113O. Rodin2.384650
O. Storozhenko10
LOct 9 · 03:15D. Shchegelskyi1.9111117113O. Storozhenko1.80961191WOct 9 · 01:45O. Storozhenko1.8391111113Y. Parahailo1.83117971WOct 8 · 23:45Y. Tebenko1.916970O. Storozhenko1.801111113LOct 8 · 21:45V. Kovalchuk1.80101111113O. Storozhenko1.91127681WOct 8 · 20:45M. Khomenko1.3312340O. Storozhenko3.251411113WOct 7 · 10:35O. Storozhenko1.53811611113M. Potapov2.3811611772WOct 7 · 09:05O. Storozhenko1.8311117113Y. Tebenko1.83811191WOct 7 · 07:35O. Storozhenko1.6741111113I. Pytsko2.10116861LOct 7 · 06:05O. Storozhenko1.6171180I. Fashchevskyi2.201113113LOct 7 · 04:35O. Storozhenko1.67101191172D. Maltsev2.10129119113
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