TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Dmytro Shchegelskyi vs Oleksandr Storozhenko 1-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 10Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1210911711211––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:58 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeDmytro Shchegelskyi to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingDmytro Shchegelskyi above · Oleksandr Storozhenko below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 2-11
Point 73 set 4, 2-11 · our read held Dmytro Shchegelskyi at 54.0%
73 points played in total.
H2H Dmytro Shchegelskyi 5–4 Oleksandr Storozhenko Oleksandr Storozhenko has won 4 of their 9 meetings.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 21:5854.0%Our read55.6%to break even at 1.80
short by 1.6pp55.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.80 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Shchegelskyi
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
5-4 in 9
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Shchegelskyi 1607 vs Storozhenko 1599
Shchegelskyi
Wrong
both rated, 8 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Shchegelskyi 60% vs Storozhenko 40%
Shchegelskyi
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Shchegelskyi 70% vs Storozhenko 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Shchegelskyi -1 · Storozhenko -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent, and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Shchegelskyi) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Storozhenko form (40%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsShchegelskyi 1.80 / Storozhenko 1.909
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Shchegelskyi)-1.6pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13270952
Shchegelskyi1.80
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite60% won 89 of 149
Up 2–0, closes it97% 30 of 31
Up 1–0, closes it75% 55 of 73
Storozhenko1.91
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog46% won 51 of 110
Down 0–1, comes back23% 15 of 65
Down 0–2, comes back10% 4 of 39
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 9 meetings
HomeShchegelskyi5wins
AwayStorozhenko4wins
3 of 9 to a deciderShchegelskyi leads 5–4, and 3 of those 9 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeShchegelskyi66.7%2 of 3
AwayStorozhenko50%3 of 6
Set by set, in these 9 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Shchegelskyi3Storozhenko6n = 9Storozhenko took 6 of 9
S2Shchegelskyi6Storozhenko3n = 9Shchegelskyi took 6 of 9
S3Shchegelskyi5Storozhenko4n = 9Shchegelskyi took 5 of 9
S4Shchegelskyi4Storozhenko2n = 6Shchegelskyi took 4 of 6
S5Shchegelskyi1Storozhenko2n = 3Storozhenko took 2 of 3
How those 9 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 9. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home111%
3–1Four sets, home333%
3–2Decider, home111%
2–3Decider, away222%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away222%
These 9 meetings
MetricShchegelskyiStorozhenkoShchegelskyi − StorozhenkoBasisWins54+1in 9 meetingsFirst set36−3of 9Avg pointsper match39.940.1−0.2per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricShchegelskyiStorozhenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime457 / 898 vs 306 / 58350.9%52.5%457 / 898 vs 306 / 583Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.139.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
ShchegelskyiShchegelskyi 1.80/Storozhenko 1.91
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Shchegelskyi · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Storozhenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
WOct 9 · 03:15D. Shchegelskyi4011117113O. Storozhenko35961191
LOct 4 · 14:05D. Shchegelskyi26101060O. Storozhenko351212113
WOct 4 · 03:00D. Shchegelskyi351113113O. Storozhenko2341180
LSep 28 · 06:35D. Shchegelskyi51135131372O. Storozhenko5911111511113
WSep 20 · 17:35D. Shchegelskyi4371111143O. Storozhenko371195121
WApr 28 · 05:05D. Shchegelskyi44711114113O. Storozhenko4411881162
LApr 27 · 14:35D. Shchegelskyi49101211972O. Storozhenko521210811113
LApr 26 · 21:00D. Shchegelskyi2515460O. Storozhenko391711113
WMar 27 · 04:15D. Shchegelskyi4691111153O. Storozhenko371167131
D. Shchegelskyi10
LOct 10 · 21:00V. Kovalchuk2.10117912113D. Shchegelskyi1.67411111092WOct 9 · 03:15D. Shchegelskyi1.9111117113O. Storozhenko1.80961191WOct 9 · 01:15M. Khomenko2.2515116882D. Shchegelskyi1.571361111113WOct 8 · 23:15V. Kovalchuk1.8381480D. Shchegelskyi1.831116113LOct 8 · 22:15D. Shchegelskyi2.2010127101Y. Parahailo1.61121011123WOct 8 · 21:15Y. Tebenko2.106911101D. Shchegelskyi1.6711112123LOct 5 · 11:35D. Shchegelskyi1.831191011112Y. Kolos1.83811126133WOct 5 · 09:35M. Khomenko2.2512512862D. Shchegelskyi1.5710111011113WOct 5 · 07:35V. Kovalchuk2.20811111182D. Shchegelskyi1.61119139113WOct 5 · 06:35D. Shchegelskyi2.101011211113Y. Parahailo1.6712911972
O. Storozhenko10
LOct 10 · 20:00O. Alieksieev1.331211113O. Storozhenko3.2510760LOct 9 · 03:15D. Shchegelskyi1.9111117113O. Storozhenko1.80961191WOct 9 · 01:45O. Storozhenko1.8391111113Y. Parahailo1.83117971WOct 8 · 23:45Y. Tebenko1.916970O. Storozhenko1.801111113LOct 8 · 21:45V. Kovalchuk1.80101111113O. Storozhenko1.91127681WOct 8 · 20:45M. Khomenko1.3312340O. Storozhenko3.251411113WOct 7 · 10:35O. Storozhenko1.53811611113M. Potapov2.3811611772WOct 7 · 09:05O. Storozhenko1.8311117113Y. Tebenko1.83811191WOct 7 · 07:35O. Storozhenko1.6741111113I. Pytsko2.10116861LOct 7 · 06:05O. Storozhenko1.6171180I. Fashchevskyi2.201113113
Upcoming Matches
D. Shchegelskyi
Oct 11 · 01:00D. Shchegelskyi1.61M. Khomenko2.20—Oct 11 · 03:00D. Shchegelskyi2.00Y. Parahailo1.73—Oct 11 · 13:05D. Shchegelskyi1.80V. Kovalchuk1.91—Oct 11 · 14:05D. Shchegelskyi2.00O. Storozhenko1.73—Oct 11 · 17:05D. Shchegelskyi1.61M. Khomenko2.20—Oct 11 · 19:05D. Shchegelskyi2.00Y. Parahailo1.73—
O. Storozhenko
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