TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Vladyslav Kovalchuk vs Dmytro Shchegelskyi 0-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 8Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
8111416811––––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:15 and never touched: 54.9% is still 54.9%
Graded at full timeDmytro Shchegelskyi to win
54.9%
54.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
RightSent to Pro: Dmytro Shchegelskyi @ 1.73 · Won
How it is goingVladyslav Kovalchuk above · Dmytro Shchegelskyi below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 14-16
Set 3 · 8-11
Point 68 set 3, 8-11 · our read held Dmytro Shchegelskyi at 54.9%
68 points played in total.
H2H Vladyslav Kovalchuk 55–84 Dmytro Shchegelskyi Vladyslav Kovalchuk has won 55 of their 139 meetings.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 22:1554.9%Our read54.6%to break even at 1.833
clears by 0.3pp54.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.833 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Shchegelskyi
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
55-84 in 139
Shchegelskyi
Correct
gap of 29 in 139, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kovalchuk 1532 vs Shchegelskyi 1586
Shchegelskyi
Correct
both rated, 54 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kovalchuk 20% vs Shchegelskyi 60%
Shchegelskyi
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kovalchuk 30% vs Shchegelskyi 50%
Shchegelskyi
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kovalchuk +1 · Shchegelskyi -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 55% · Coin-flip (leans Shchegelskyi) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kovalchuk form (20%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKovalchuk 1.833 / Shchegelskyi 1.833
Signal prob.45% / 55%
Edge (Shchegelskyi)+0.3pp
Setka Cup · #13261213
Kovalchuk1.83
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
Shchegelskyi1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKovalchuk3wins
AwayShchegelskyi7wins
6 of 10 to a deciderShchegelskyi leads 7–3, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKovalchuk50%3 of 6
AwayShchegelskyi100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kovalchuk6Shchegelskyi4n = 10Kovalchuk took 6 of 10
S2Kovalchuk5Shchegelskyi5n = 10split evenly
S3Kovalchuk4Shchegelskyi6n = 10Shchegelskyi took 6 of 10
S4Kovalchuk2Shchegelskyi6n = 8Shchegelskyi took 6 of 8
S5Kovalchuk2Shchegelskyi4n = 6Shchegelskyi took 4 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKovalchukShchegelskyiK − SBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match42.042.7−0.7per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKovalchukShchegelskyiBasisWin rate · lifetime371 / 767 vs 458 / 90748.4%50.5%371 / 767 vs 458 / 907Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.539.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
ShchegelskyiKovalchuk 1.83/Shchegelskyi 1.83
Hit
What we said
54.9%
Shchegelskyi · sealed before the serve
Sent to Pro: Dmytro Shchegelskyi @ 1.73 · Won
What happened
0–3
Shchegelskyi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 5 · 07:35V. Kovalchuk49811111182D. Shchegelskyi53119139113
WOct 4 · 19:05V. Kovalchuk521141113133D. Shchegelskyi49611615112
LOct 3 · 23:30V. Kovalchuk401181291D. Shchegelskyi4261114113
LSep 20 · 12:35V. Kovalchuk46811116102D. Shchegelskyi51118911123
WSep 20 · 02:30V. Kovalchuk46118511113D. Shchegelskyi4471111872
LAug 1 · 23:00V. Kovalchuk46611116122D. Shchegelskyi51117811143
LJul 13 · 11:05V. Kovalchuk29910100D. Shchegelskyi351112123
WJul 12 · 13:05V. Kovalchuk331111113D. Shchegelskyi185760
LJul 12 · 02:30V. Kovalchuk35117891D. Shchegelskyi3961111113
LJul 6 · 09:05V. Kovalchuk4411117962D. Shchegelskyi45391111113
V. Kovalchuk10
LOct 9 · 00:45V. Kovalchuk1.7391180Y. Tebenko2.001113113WOct 8 · 21:45V. Kovalchuk1.80101111113O. Storozhenko1.91127681LOct 8 · 20:15V. Kovalchuk2.635250Y. Parahailo1.441111113LOct 5 · 10:35V. Kovalchuk1.911161491M. Khomenko1.8061116113LOct 5 · 09:05V. Kovalchuk1.67611681Y. Tebenko2.1011611113LOct 5 · 07:35V. Kovalchuk2.20811111182D. Shchegelskyi1.61119139113WOct 5 · 06:05V. Kovalchuk1.83101111113Y. Kolos1.83128941LOct 5 · 04:35V. Kovalchuk2.506760Y. Parahailo1.501111113WOct 4 · 19:05D. Shchegelskyi1.91611615112V. Kovalchuk1.801141113133LOct 4 · 17:35V. Kovalchuk2.10414771O. Storozhenko1.67111211113
D. Shchegelskyi10
LOct 8 · 22:15D. Shchegelskyi2.2010127101Y. Parahailo1.61121011123WOct 8 · 21:15Y. Tebenko2.106911101D. Shchegelskyi1.6711112123LOct 5 · 11:35D. Shchegelskyi1.831191011112Y. Kolos1.83811126133WOct 5 · 09:35M. Khomenko2.2512512862D. Shchegelskyi1.5710111011113WOct 5 · 07:35V. Kovalchuk2.20811111182D. Shchegelskyi1.61119139113WOct 5 · 06:35D. Shchegelskyi2.101011211113Y. Parahailo1.6712911972LOct 5 · 05:35Y. Tebenko2.201111113D. Shchegelskyi1.612820LOct 4 · 19:05D. Shchegelskyi1.91611615112V. Kovalchuk1.801141113133WOct 4 · 17:05M. Khomenko2.251161091D. Shchegelskyi1.5791112113LOct 4 · 15:05Y. Parahailo2.3881112123D. Shchegelskyi1.5311810101
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