TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Damian Wederlich vs Antoni Witkowski 3-2 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 9Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
113811511119115
Antoni Witkowski
Away
1.73
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 06:27 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeAntoni Witkowski to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingDamian Wederlich above · Antoni Witkowski below
Set 1 · 11-3
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 11-5
Point 85 set 5, 11-5 · our read held Antoni Witkowski at 54.0%
85 points played in total.
H2H Damian Wederlich 16–13 Antoni Witkowski Antoni Witkowski has won 13 of their 29 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 06:2754.0%Our read57.9%to break even at 1.727
short by 3.9pp57.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.727 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Witkowski
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
16-13 in 29
Wederlich
Correct
gap of 3 in 29, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Wederlich 1955 vs Witkowski 1874
Wederlich
Correct
both rated, 82 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Wederlich 60% vs Witkowski 40%
Wederlich
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Wederlich 60% vs Witkowski 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Wederlich -1 · Witkowski -3
Witkowski
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Witkowski) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Witkowski form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsWederlich 2.00 / Witkowski 1.727
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Witkowski)-3.9pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13264249
Wederlich2.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog47% won 20 of 43
Down 0–1, comes back16% 4 of 25
Down 0–2, comes back7% 1 of 14
Witkowski1.73
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite60% won 58 of 96
Up 2–0, closes it96% 25 of 26
Up 1–0, closes it84% 38 of 45
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeWederlich7wins
AwayWitkowski3wins
4 of 10 to a deciderWederlich leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeWederlich100%6 of 6
AwayWitkowski75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Wederlich6Witkowski4n = 10Wederlich took 6 of 10
S2Wederlich5Witkowski5n = 10split evenly
S3Wederlich5Witkowski5n = 10split evenly
S4Wederlich5Witkowski1n = 6Wederlich took 5 of 6
S5Wederlich3Witkowski1n = 4Wederlich took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricWederlichWitkowskiWederlich − WitkowskiBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match38.536.1+2.4per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricWederlichWitkowskiBasisWin rate · lifetime90 / 154 vs 226 / 38958.4%58.1%90 / 154 vs 226 / 389Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.438.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
WitkowskiWederlich 2.00/Witkowski 1.73
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Witkowski · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Wederlich won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 9 · 06:30D. Wederlich46118511113A. Witkowski3931111952
WJul 10 · 12:30D. Wederlich4211911113A. Witkowski26511281
LJul 10 · 03:00D. Wederlich47911101252A. Witkowski491151210113
LJun 5 · 11:10D. Wederlich155550A. Witkowski331111113
WJun 5 · 05:40D. Wederlich331111113A. Witkowski248880
WJun 4 · 15:35D. Wederlich341111123A. Witkowski2679100
WJun 4 · 07:40D. Wederlich45116412123A. Witkowski508111110102
WMay 16 · 11:10D. Wederlich331111113A. Witkowski249870
WMay 16 · 06:40D. Wederlich51691114113A. Witkowski44111161242
LMay 10 · 06:15D. Wederlich395119141A. Witkowski4611811163
D. Wederlich10
LOct 9 · 05:15D. Wederlich1.73116591D. Michna2.0081111113WOct 9 · 04:10P. David1.61101111792D. Wederlich2.20129511113WOct 9 · 03:25D. Wederlich2.10111310113J. Zandecki1.678111261WOct 8 · 14:10D. Michna2.1010660D. Wederlich1.671211113LOct 8 · 13:20P. David1.611113113D. Wederlich2.2081190WOct 8 · 11:15A. Grela2.00119651D. Wederlich1.7371111113LOct 8 · 10:25J. Folwarski1.3681112113D. Wederlich3.001181081LOct 8 · 09:00J. Zandecki1.67111188133D. Wederlich2.10781111112WOct 8 · 08:05J. Zandecki1.735860D. Wederlich2.001111113WOct 8 · 07:20J. Folwarski1.3661311852D. Wederlich3.001111511113
A. Witkowski10
LOct 9 · 05:40P. David1.531111113A. Witkowski2.388880LOct 9 · 04:55A. Witkowski1.5784111182J. Zandecki2.25111198113LOct 9 · 03:45A. Witkowski2.108930M. Jadczyk1.671111113WSep 13 · 07:45A. Witkowski1.5711511113S. Dosz2.25911961WSep 13 · 06:30A. Witkowski1.9181111113A. Dosz1.80117391WSep 13 · 05:15A. Witkowski1.83111011113K. Petas1.83812781WSep 13 · 04:10G. Adamiak2.75115741A. Witkowski1.4071111113LSep 13 · 03:25A. Witkowski1.576121151J. Zandecki2.2511149113WSep 12 · 13:45S. Dosz2.251178111A. Witkowski1.5791111133WSep 12 · 12:55J. Braun2.2089111182A. Witkowski1.61111169113
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