TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Jan Zandecki vs Damian Wederlich 3-2 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 8Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1171188118111311
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 07:57 and never touched: 56.5% is still 56.5%
Graded at full timeJan Zandecki to win
56.5%
56.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
RightSent to Pro: Jan Zandecki @ 1.73 · Won
How it is goingJan Zandecki above · Damian Wederlich below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 8-11
Set 5 · 13-11
Point 99 set 5, 13-11 · our read held Jan Zandecki at 56.5%
99 points played in total.
H2H Jan Zandecki 18–23 Damian Wederlich Jan Zandecki has won 18 of their 41 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 1h before this match
Wederlich beat Zandecki 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 07:5756.5%Our read60.0%to break even at 1.666
short by 3.5pp60.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.666 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Zandecki
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
18-23 in 41
Wederlich
Wrong
gap of 5 in 41, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Zandecki 1981 vs Wederlich 1941
Zandecki
Correct
both rated, 40 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Zandecki 40% vs Wederlich 60%
Wederlich
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Zandecki 70% vs Wederlich 70%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Zandecki -2 · Wederlich +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent, and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 57% · Slight lean (leans Zandecki) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Wederlich form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsZandecki 1.666 / Wederlich 2.10
Signal prob.57% / 44%
Edge (Zandecki)-3.5pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13259038
Zandecki1.67
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite67% won 115 of 171
Up 2–0, closes it96% 47 of 49
Up 1–0, closes it77% 82 of 107
Wederlich2.10
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog49% won 17 of 35
Down 0–1, comes back19% 4 of 21
Down 0–2, comes back9% 1 of 11
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeZandecki4wins
AwayWederlich6wins
3 of 10 to a deciderWederlich leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeZandecki57.1%4 of 7
AwayWederlich100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Zandecki7Wederlich3n = 10Zandecki took 7 of 10
S2Zandecki6Wederlich4n = 10Zandecki took 6 of 10
S3Zandecki4Wederlich6n = 10Wederlich took 6 of 10
S4Zandecki2Wederlich4n = 6Wederlich took 4 of 6
S5Zandecki0Wederlich3n = 3Wederlich took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricZandeckiWederlichZ − WBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match36.935.0+1.9per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricZandeckiWederlichBasisWin rate · lifetime467 / 826 vs 85 / 14556.5%58.6%467 / 826 vs 85 / 145Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.338.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
ZandeckiZandecki 1.67/Wederlich 2.10
Hit
What we said
56.5%
Zandecki · sealed before the serve
Sent to Pro: Jan Zandecki @ 1.73 · Won
What happened
3–2
Zandecki won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 8 · 08:05J. Zandecki195860D. Wederlich331111113
LSep 18 · 15:25J. Zandecki43111111552D. Wederlich48491311113
LSep 18 · 05:15J. Zandecki351112661D. Wederlich4041411113
LMay 22 · 14:30J. Zandecki2147100D. Wederlich341111123
WMay 22 · 08:00J. Zandecki4511811153D. Wederlich348112131
LAug 17 · 10:25J. Zandecki4612116892D. Wederlich461031111113
WAug 17 · 06:40J. Zandecki331111113D. Wederlich188640
WAug 9 · 10:25J. Zandecki331111113D. Wederlich125610
LAug 9 · 05:05J. Zandecki49811117122D. Wederlich51117811143
WMay 30 · 14:50J. Zandecki45111112113D. Wederlich34671471
J. Zandecki10
LOct 8 · 08:05J. Zandecki1.735860D. Wederlich2.001111113LOct 8 · 06:30P. David1.571111710113J. Zandecki2.2579111272WOct 8 · 05:40A. Grela1.839101261J. Zandecki1.83111210113LOct 8 · 04:55J. Zandecki3.751181051J. Folwarski1.2571112113WOct 8 · 03:45J. Zandecki2.10118126113M. Jadczyk1.67811101152WSep 29 · 14:10P. Chodorski1.9110850J. Zandecki1.801211113WSep 29 · 13:20P. David1.6710990J. Zandecki2.101211113WSep 29 · 11:15G. Felkel1.5381141182J. Zandecki2.38119115113WSep 29 · 10:25J. Kosowski2.0089120J. Zandecki1.731111143WSep 29 · 09:00A. Wiecek2.00613641J. Zandecki1.73111111113
D. Wederlich10
WOct 8 · 08:05J. Zandecki1.735860D. Wederlich2.001111113WOct 8 · 07:20J. Folwarski1.3661311852D. Wederlich3.001111511113LOct 8 · 05:15P. David1.50151111113D. Wederlich2.501313861LOct 8 · 04:30M. Jadczyk1.801111113D. Wederlich1.914850WOct 8 · 03:00A. Grela2.20671191D. Wederlich1.6111115113WSep 19 · 14:10D. Wederlich1.9113116113J. Stecyszyn1.801181181WSep 19 · 12:30A. Daniel2.6371191132D. Wederlich1.44115113113WSep 19 · 11:40D. Kostal4.005570D. Wederlich1.221111113WSep 19 · 10:50D. Wederlich1.22115811113G. Poliniewicz4.0071111972LSep 19 · 09:40D. Wederlich1.911071171M. Jadczyk1.8012116113
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