TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Jan Zandecki vs Jakub Folwarski 1-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 8Finished
Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 6
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1178111012511––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 04:50 and never touched: 76.6% is still 76.6%
Graded at full timeJakub Folwarski to win
76.6%
76.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingJan Zandecki above · Jakub Folwarski below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 10-12
Set 4 · 5-11
Point 75 set 4, 5-11 · our read held Jakub Folwarski at 76.6%
75 points played in total.
H2H Jan Zandecki 5–17 Jakub Folwarski Jan Zandecki has won 5 of their 22 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 04:5076.6%Our read80.0%to break even at 1.25
short by 3.4pp80.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.25 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.25 (75%)
Folwarski
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
5-17 in 22
Folwarski
Correct
gap of 12 in 22, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Zandecki 1999 vs Folwarski 2092
Folwarski
Correct
both rated, 93 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Zandecki 100% vs Folwarski 40%
Zandecki
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Zandecki 80% vs Folwarski 60%
Zandecki
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Zandecki +6 · Folwarski -3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 77% · Strong (leans Folwarski) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Folwarski form (40%) is below what odds imply (80%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsZandecki 3.75 / Folwarski 1.25
Signal prob.23% / 77%
Edge (Folwarski)-3.4pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13258819
Zandecki3.75
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 6
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog47% won 74 of 156
Down 0–1, comes back28% 22 of 78
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 31
Folwarski1.25
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite77% won 166 of 216
Up 2–0, closes it97% 67 of 69
Up 1–0, closes it89% 98 of 110
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeZandecki2wins
AwayFolwarski8wins
Folwarski leads 8–2.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeZandecki33.3%2 of 6
AwayFolwarski100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Zandecki6Folwarski4n = 10Zandecki took 6 of 10
S2Zandecki2Folwarski8n = 10Folwarski took 8 of 10
S3Zandecki2Folwarski8n = 10Folwarski took 8 of 10
S4Zandecki1Folwarski5n = 6Folwarski took 5 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away550%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricZandeckiFolwarskiZ − FBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match31.138.6−7.5per matchSweeps13−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricZandeckiFolwarskiBasisWin rate · lifetime466 / 823 vs 275 / 36456.6%75.6%466 / 823 vs 275 / 364Avg sets wonper match2.22.6per matchAvg pointsper match38.340.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
FolwarskiZandecki 3.75/Folwarski 1.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
76.6%
Folwarski · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Folwarski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 8 · 04:55J. Zandecki341181051J. Folwarski4171112113
LJun 25 · 05:15J. Zandecki2781180J. Folwarski351113113
LJun 24 · 11:15J. Zandecki214980J. Folwarski331111113
WJun 24 · 03:00J. Zandecki381111163J. Folwarski2877140
LMay 30 · 11:10J. Zandecki23114441J. Folwarski4181111113
WMay 30 · 08:00J. Zandecki4513811133J. Folwarski4211119111
LMay 29 · 14:30J. Zandecki164570J. Folwarski331111113
LMay 9 · 12:25J. Zandecki35144981J. Folwarski45121111113
LMay 9 · 04:00J. Zandecki30115681J. Folwarski3961111113
LMay 8 · 12:50J. Zandecki427151281J. Folwarski49111314113
J. Zandecki10
WOct 8 · 03:45J. Zandecki2.10118126113M. Jadczyk1.67811101152WSep 29 · 14:10P. Chodorski1.9110850J. Zandecki1.801211113WSep 29 · 13:20P. David1.6710990J. Zandecki2.101211113WSep 29 · 11:15G. Felkel1.5381141182J. Zandecki2.38119115113WSep 29 · 10:25J. Kosowski2.0089120J. Zandecki1.731111143WSep 29 · 09:00A. Wiecek2.00613641J. Zandecki1.73111111113LSep 29 · 08:05P. David1.5313711113J. Zandecki2.381111891LSep 29 · 07:20J. Kosowski1.671311113J. Zandecki2.1011970WSep 29 · 05:15P. Chodorski1.9161111982J. Zandecki1.80117911113WSep 29 · 04:30A. Wiecek1.8394120J. Zandecki1.831111143
J. Folwarski10
LOct 8 · 03:25P. David2.38111011123J. Folwarski1.535128101LOct 7 · 14:35A. Grela2.6321211113J. Folwarski1.441110741LOct 7 · 13:20J. Folwarski1.3311890D. Michna3.251311113WOct 7 · 12:05M. Jadczyk2.50116461J. Folwarski1.5081111113WOct 7 · 10:50M. Miastowski3.7511811892J. Folwarski1.25611411113WOct 7 · 09:20P. Chodorski3.75111138102J. Folwarski1.25451111123WSep 26 · 07:45J. Folwarski1.4451111113M. Jadczyk2.63112991LSep 26 · 06:30J. Folwarski1.30742T. Spanik3.401143WSep 26 · 05:15J. Folwarski1.361111113K. Petas3.009650WSep 26 · 04:10G. Adamiak3.75710120J. Folwarski1.251112143
Upcoming Matches
J. Zandecki
Oct 8 · 06:30J. Zandecki2.50P. David1.50—Oct 8 · 08:05J. Zandecki1.73D. Wederlich2.00—Oct 8 · 09:00J. Zandecki1.73D. Wederlich2.00—Oct 8 · 10:00J. Zandecki1.83A. Grela1.83—Oct 8 · 11:40J. Zandecki1.80D. Michna1.91—Oct 8 · 12:55J. Zandecki3.75J. Folwarski1.25—Oct 8 · 14:35J. Zandecki2.50P. David1.50—
J. Folwarski
Oct 8 · 06:05J. Folwarski1.50M. Jadczyk2.50—Oct 8 · 07:20J. Folwarski1.36D. Wederlich3.00—Oct 8 · 08:30J. Folwarski1.36A. Grela3.00—Oct 8 · 09:40J. Folwarski1.30D. Michna3.40—Oct 8 · 10:25J. Folwarski1.36D. Wederlich3.00—Oct 8 · 12:05J. Folwarski1.44P. David2.63—Oct 8 · 12:55J. Folwarski1.25J. Zandecki3.75—Oct 8 · 13:45J. Folwarski1.36A. Grela3.00—
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