TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Piotr Chodorski vs Jakub Folwarski 2-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 7Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1141153118111012
Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:14 and never touched: 75.0% is still 75.0%
Graded at full timeJakub Folwarski to win
75.0%
75.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingPiotr Chodorski above · Jakub Folwarski below
Set 1 · 11-4
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 3-11
Set 4 · 8-11
Set 5 · 10-12
Point 86 set 5, 10-12 · our read held Jakub Folwarski at 75.0%
86 points played in total.
H2H Piotr Chodorski 1–2 Jakub Folwarski Piotr Chodorski has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:1475.0%Our read80.0%to break even at 1.25
short by 5.0pp80.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.25 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.25 (75%)
Folwarski
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
1-2 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Chodorski 1839 vs Folwarski 2137
Folwarski
Correct
both rated, 298 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Chodorski 40% vs Folwarski 80%
Folwarski
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Chodorski 50% vs Folwarski 80%
Folwarski
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Chodorski +2 · Folwarski +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 75% · Strong (leans Folwarski) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Chodorski form (40%) outperforms what odds imply (27%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsChodorski 3.75 / Folwarski 1.25
Signal prob.25% / 75%
Edge (Folwarski)-5.0pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13253444
Chodorski3.75
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog40% won 8 of 20
Down 0–1, comes back33% 3 of 9
Folwarski1.25
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 11 days ago (Sep 26) · back after a break
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite78% won 163 of 210
Up 2–0, closes it97% 67 of 69
Up 1–0, closes it90% 98 of 109
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeChodorski1wins
AwayFolwarski2wins
3 of 3 to a deciderFolwarski leads 2–1, and 3 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeChodorski33.3%1 of 3
AwayFolwarskin = 0, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Chodorski3Folwarski0n = 3Chodorski took 3 of 3
S2Chodorski1Folwarski2n = 3Folwarski took 2 of 3
S3Chodorski2Folwarski1n = 3Chodorski took 2 of 3
S4Chodorski0Folwarski3n = 3Folwarski took 3 of 3
S5Chodorski1Folwarski2n = 3Folwarski took 2 of 3
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home133%
2–3Decider, away267%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 3 meetings
MetricChodorskiFolwarskiC − FBasisWins12−1in 3 meetingsFirst set30+3of 3Avg pointsper match42.046.3−4.3per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricChodorskiFolwarskiBasisWin rate · lifetime211 / 411 vs 276 / 36351.3%76%211 / 411 vs 276 / 363Avg sets wonper match2.02.6per matchAvg pointsper match36.940.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
FolwarskiChodorski 3.75/Folwarski 1.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
75%
Folwarski · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Folwarski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
WSep 3 · 10:45P. Chodorski491112114113J. Folwarski4581451172
LAug 15 · 04:20P. Chodorski3711611632J. Folwarski47811611113
LAug 14 · 10:25P. Chodorski40111161022J. Folwarski47851112113
P. Chodorski10
LOct 7 · 11:15P. Chodorski1.67513812102D. Michna2.1011111110123WOct 7 · 10:00A. Grela1.801191141P. Chodorski1.9151113113WOct 7 · 08:30P. Chodorski1.6111111123M. Miastowski2.208116101WOct 7 · 06:55P. Chodorski2.0011116113M. Jadczyk1.73661141LOct 7 · 05:40P. Chodorski1.3011671472J. Stecyszyn3.407111112113LOct 7 · 04:10P. Chodorski2.381110981A. Grela1.5391211113LOct 7 · 03:00P. Chodorski1.67411681D. Michna2.1011811113LOct 6 · 14:35P. Chodorski1.736850J. Braun2.001111113LOct 6 · 12:55P. Chodorski2.63119981G. Felkel1.4471111113WOct 6 · 11:40P. Chodorski2.1041111113M. Miastowski1.67119991
J. Folwarski10
WOct 7 · 10:50M. Miastowski3.7511811892J. Folwarski1.25611411113WSep 26 · 07:45J. Folwarski1.4451111113M. Jadczyk2.63112991LSep 26 · 06:30J. Folwarski1.30742T. Spanik3.401143WSep 26 · 05:15J. Folwarski1.361111113K. Petas3.009650WSep 26 · 04:10G. Adamiak3.75710120J. Folwarski1.251112143WSep 26 · 03:25J. Folwarski1.28111210113M. Miastowski3.509101271WSep 8 · 07:45J. Folwarski1.4411115113T. Spanik2.63571181WSep 8 · 06:30J. Folwarski1.448111110123A. Wiecek2.63118912102LSep 8 · 05:15J. Folwarski1.61111197102P. David2.20651111123WSep 8 · 04:10J. Kosowski2.3881151182J. Folwarski1.53115119113
Upcoming Matches
P. Chodorski
J. Folwarski
Oct 7 · 12:05J. Folwarski1.50M. Jadczyk2.50—Oct 7 · 13:20J. Folwarski1.33D. Michna3.25—Oct 7 · 14:35J. Folwarski1.44A. Grela2.63—Oct 8 · 03:25J. Folwarski1.53P. David2.38—Oct 8 · 04:55J. Folwarski1.25J. Zandecki3.75—Oct 8 · 07:20J. Folwarski1.36D. Wederlich3.00—Oct 8 · 08:30J. Folwarski1.44A. Grela2.63—Oct 8 · 09:40J. Folwarski1.33D. Michna3.25—Oct 8 · 10:25J. Folwarski1.44D. Wederlich2.63—Oct 8 · 12:05J. Folwarski1.53P. David2.38—
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