TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Piotr Chodorski vs Marcin Jadczyk 3-1 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 7Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 5
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
116116611114––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 06:53 and never touched: 54.1% is still 54.1%
Graded at full timeMarcin Jadczyk to win
54.1%
54.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingPiotr Chodorski above · Marcin Jadczyk below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 11-4
Point 66 set 4, 11-4 · our read held Marcin Jadczyk at 54.1%
66 points played in total.
H2H Piotr Chodorski 16–16 Marcin Jadczyk Dead even across their 32 meetings.
Last 10 · 6–4Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 06:5354.1%Our read57.9%to break even at 1.727
short by 3.8pp57.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.727 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Jadczyk
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
16-16 in 32
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Chodorski 1826 vs Jadczyk 1900
Jadczyk
Wrong
both rated, 75 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Chodorski 0% vs Jadczyk 60%
Jadczyk
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Chodorski 50% vs Jadczyk 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Chodorski -5 · Jadczyk +1
Chodorski
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Jadczyk) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Chodorski form (0%) is below what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsChodorski 2.00 / Jadczyk 1.727
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Jadczyk)-3.8pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13253419
Chodorski2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 5
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog40% won 8 of 20
Down 0–1, comes back33% 3 of 9
Jadczyk1.73
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite63% won 402 of 640
Up 2–0, closes it95% 202 of 212
Up 1–0, closes it81% 315 of 388
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeChodorski6wins
AwayJadczyk4wins
3 of 10 to a deciderChodorski leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeChodorski85.7%6 of 7
AwayJadczyk100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Chodorski7Jadczyk3n = 10Chodorski took 7 of 10
S2Chodorski7Jadczyk3n = 10Chodorski took 7 of 10
S3Chodorski6Jadczyk4n = 10Chodorski took 6 of 10
S4Chodorski5Jadczyk2n = 7Chodorski took 5 of 7
S5Chodorski0Jadczyk3n = 3Jadczyk took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricChodorskiJadczykC − JBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match40.936.7+4.2per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricChodorskiJadczykBasisWin rate · lifetime210 / 410 vs 987 / 169251.2%58.3%210 / 410 vs 987 / 1692Avg sets wonper match2.02.2per matchAvg pointsper match36.939.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
JadczykChodorski 2.00/Jadczyk 1.73
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54.1%
Jadczyk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Chodorski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 7 · 06:55P. Chodorski3911116113M. Jadczyk27661141
WSep 28 · 12:55P. Chodorski47111213113M. Jadczyk406141191
LSep 28 · 03:45P. Chodorski50101181472M. Jadczyk511251112113
WMar 31 · 13:15P. Chodorski341112113M. Jadczyk1951040
LMar 31 · 08:50P. Chodorski31811571M. Jadczyk4011711113
LMar 30 · 12:20P. Chodorski55139131192M. Jadczyk561111158113
LMar 23 · 15:05P. Chodorski4571111882M. Jadczyk45118411113
WMar 23 · 05:40P. Chodorski381116113M. Jadczyk2881460
WMar 5 · 08:15P. Chodorski331111113M. Jadczyk239860
WFeb 23 · 09:50P. Chodorski3711311123M. Jadczyk388119101
P. Chodorski10
LOct 7 · 05:40P. Chodorski1.3011671472J. Stecyszyn3.407111112113LOct 7 · 04:10P. Chodorski2.381110981A. Grela1.5391211113LOct 7 · 03:00P. Chodorski1.67411681D. Michna2.1011811113LOct 6 · 14:35P. Chodorski1.736850J. Braun2.001111113LOct 6 · 12:55P. Chodorski2.63119981G. Felkel1.4471111113WOct 6 · 11:40P. Chodorski2.1041111113M. Miastowski1.67119991WOct 6 · 10:00P. Chodorski2.00712511113J. Kosowski1.73111011672WOct 6 · 09:00P. Chodorski2.20136125113A. Wiecek1.611111101172WOct 6 · 07:40K. Wloczko2.50711311P. Chodorski1.4511911113WOct 6 · 06:50M. Olbrycht2.505460P. Chodorski1.491111113
M. Jadczyk10
WOct 7 · 07:45A. Grela2.10118941M. Jadczyk1.6781111113WOct 7 · 06:05M. Jadczyk1.73911119113M. Miastowski2.0011651162LOct 7 · 04:30M. Jadczyk1.671131151D. Michna2.1091113113LOct 7 · 03:45J. Stecyszyn2.3831111113M. Jadczyk1.53119381WOct 6 · 07:45A. Wiecek1.9191060M. Jadczyk1.801112113WOct 6 · 06:55J. Kosowski1.75571381M. Jadczyk1.90111111113LOct 6 · 06:05M. Jadczyk1.912870G. Felkel1.801111113WOct 6 · 04:30M. Jadczyk1.7341111123M. Miastowski2.001155101WOct 6 · 03:45J. Braun2.00751161M. Jadczyk1.7311117113LOct 5 · 07:45J. Kosowski1.4213911113M. Jadczyk2.601111961
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