TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Piotr Chodorski vs Artur Grela 1-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 7Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 3
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1191012911811––
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 04:09 and never touched: 62.0% is still 62.0%
Graded at full timeArtur Grela to win
62.0%
62.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingPiotr Chodorski above · Artur Grela below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 81 set 4, 8-11 · our read held Artur Grela at 62.0%
81 points played in total.
H2H Piotr Chodorski 17–20 Artur Grela Piotr Chodorski has won 17 of their 37 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 04:0962.0%Our read65.2%to break even at 1.533
short by 3.2pp65.2% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.533 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Grela
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
17-20 in 37
Grela
Correct
gap of 3 in 37, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Chodorski 1824 vs Grela 1930
Grela
Correct
both rated, 105 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Chodorski 40% vs Grela 60%
Grela
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Chodorski 70% vs Grela 70%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Chodorski -3 · Grela -1
Chodorski
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% · Clear lean (leans Grela) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsChodorski 2.375 / Grela 1.533
Signal prob.38% / 62%
Edge (Grela)-3.2pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13253758
Chodorski2.38
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog33% won 5 of 15
Down 0–1, comes back14% 1 of 7
Grela1.53
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite68% won 174 of 256
Up 2–0, closes it96% 65 of 68
Up 1–0, closes it76% 115 of 151
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeChodorski5wins
AwayGrela5wins
1 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeChodorski66.7%2 of 3
AwayGrela57.1%4 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Chodorski3Grela7n = 10Grela took 7 of 10
S2Chodorski4Grela6n = 10Grela took 6 of 10
S3Chodorski7Grela3n = 10Chodorski took 7 of 10
S4Chodorski3Grela3n = 6split evenly
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricChodorskiGrelaC − GBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match37.536.8+0.7per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricChodorskiGrelaBasisWin rate · lifetime209 / 407 vs 635 / 122551.4%51.8%209 / 407 vs 635 / 1225Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.838.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
GrelaChodorski 2.38/Grela 1.53
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
62%
Grela · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Grela won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WMar 24 · 12:10P. Chodorski4181111113A. Grela27112591
LMar 24 · 07:40P. Chodorski4814913121A. Grela52161111143
WMar 5 · 12:35P. Chodorski47131111123A. Grela401578101
LMar 5 · 09:25P. Chodorski205870A. Grela331111113
WFeb 24 · 15:50P. Chodorski351113113A. Grela2781180
LFeb 24 · 10:35P. Chodorski38119991A. Grela4181111113
WJan 20 · 11:00P. Chodorski331111113A. Grela196760
LJan 20 · 08:40P. Chodorski2310490A. Grela341211113
WJan 19 · 13:00P. Chodorski46851111113A. Grela4511118962
LDec 24 · 07:25P. Chodorski4410714131A. Grela50121112153
P. Chodorski10
LOct 7 · 03:00P. Chodorski1.67411681D. Michna2.1011811113LOct 6 · 14:35P. Chodorski1.736850J. Braun2.001111113LOct 6 · 12:55P. Chodorski2.63119981G. Felkel1.4471111113WOct 6 · 11:40P. Chodorski2.1041111113M. Miastowski1.67119991WOct 6 · 10:00P. Chodorski2.00712511113J. Kosowski1.73111011672WOct 6 · 09:00P. Chodorski2.20136125113A. Wiecek1.611111101172WOct 6 · 07:40K. Wloczko2.50711311P. Chodorski1.4511911113WOct 6 · 06:50M. Olbrycht2.505460P. Chodorski1.491111113WOct 6 · 06:00P. Chodorski1.35812711113M. Malachowski2.85111011852WOct 6 · 04:25P. Chodorski1.6011116113G. Poliniewicz2.15571191
A. Grela10
LOct 7 · 03:25A. Grela1.7391111552M. Miastowski2.00117511113WOct 1 · 13:45L. Jarocki3.4011650A. Grela1.301311113WOct 1 · 12:55D. Michna2.00115101192A. Grela1.73911120113LOct 1 · 12:05A. Grela1.50610100K. Wloczko2.501112123WOct 1 · 10:25A. Grela1.4441111113K. Kolodziej2.63114461WOct 1 · 09:40M. Rutkowski5.505970A. Grela1.131111113WOct 1 · 08:30L. Jarocki2.6391060A. Grela1.441112113WOct 1 · 07:20A. Grela1.441111113J. Kuzmicz2.634380WOct 1 · 06:05M. Jadczyk2.00111210882A. Grela1.739101211113LOct 1 · 04:55D. Michna1.91111117113A. Grela1.8079111192
Upcoming Matches
P. Chodorski
Oct 7 · 05:40P. Chodorski1.28J. Stecyszyn3.50—Oct 7 · 06:55P. Chodorski2.00M. Jadczyk1.73—Oct 7 · 08:30P. Chodorski1.61M. Miastowski2.20—Oct 7 · 09:20P. Chodorski3.75J. Folwarski1.25—Oct 7 · 10:00P. Chodorski1.91A. Grela1.80—Oct 7 · 11:15P. Chodorski1.67D. Michna2.10—Oct 7 · 12:30P. Chodorski1.61M. Miastowski2.20—Oct 7 · 13:45P. Chodorski2.00M. Jadczyk1.73—
A. Grela
Oct 7 · 05:15A. Grela1.83D. Michna1.83—Oct 7 · 06:30A. Grela1.36J. Stecyszyn3.00—Oct 7 · 07:45A. Grela1.83M. Jadczyk1.83—Oct 7 · 09:00A. Grela1.80D. Michna1.91—Oct 7 · 10:00A. Grela1.80P. Chodorski1.91—Oct 7 · 11:40A. Grela1.61M. Miastowski2.20—Oct 7 · 12:55A. Grela1.83M. Jadczyk1.83—Oct 7 · 14:35A. Grela2.63J. Folwarski1.44—
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