TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Dawid Michna vs Artur Grela 2-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 1Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1195111012110911
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:53 and never touched: 54.9% is still 54.9%
Graded at full timeArtur Grela to win
54.9%
54.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingDawid Michna above · Artur Grela below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 10-12
Set 4 · 11-0
Set 5 · 9-11
Point 89 set 5, 9-11 · our read held Artur Grela at 54.9%
89 points played in total.
H2H Dawid Michna 30–30 Artur Grela Dead even across their 60 meetings.
Last 10 · 6–4Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:5354.9%Our read57.9%to break even at 1.727
short by 3.0pp57.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.727 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Grela
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
30-30 in 60
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Michna 1859 vs Grela 1928
Grela
Correct
both rated, 69 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Michna 40% vs Grela 80%
Grela
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Michna 50% vs Grela 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Michna -1 · Grela -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% · Coin-flip (leans Grela) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Grela form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMichna 2.00 / Grela 1.727
Signal prob.45% / 55%
Edge (Grela)-3.0pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13222123
Michna2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog52% won 111 of 214
Down 0–1, comes back34% 38 of 111
Down 0–2, comes back11% 5 of 47
Grela1.73
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite67% won 171 of 254
Up 2–0, closes it96% 65 of 68
Up 1–0, closes it76% 115 of 151
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMichna6wins
AwayGrela4wins
4 of 10 to a deciderMichna leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMichna71.4%5 of 7
AwayGrela66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Michna7Grela3n = 10Michna took 7 of 10
S2Michna6Grela4n = 10Michna took 6 of 10
S3Michna5Grela5n = 10split evenly
S4Michna3Grela4n = 7Grela took 4 of 7
S5Michna2Grela2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricMichnaGrelaM − GBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match39.937.4+2.5per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMichnaGrelaBasisWin rate · lifetime500 / 921 vs 633 / 122454.3%51.7%500 / 921 vs 633 / 1224Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.238.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
GrelaMichna 2.00/Grela 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.9%
Grela · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Grela won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 1 · 04:55D. Michna41111117113A. Grela4779111192
LSep 10 · 12:30D. Michna4351112962A. Grela501171011113
LSep 10 · 08:35D. Michna2810990A. Grela341211113
WSep 9 · 14:35D. Michna4211911113A. Grela32711951
LSep 9 · 03:45D. Michna4411118952A. Grela50981111113
WSep 4 · 12:55D. Michna521011911113A. Grela3912611642
WSep 4 · 04:55D. Michna331111113A. Grela228770
LAug 27 · 12:30D. Michna411189131A. Grela4691111153
WAug 27 · 04:10D. Michna331111113A. Grela217860
WAug 26 · 09:00D. Michna4211911113A. Grela33811771
D. Michna10
LOct 1 · 11:40D. Michna1.40661191M. Rutkowski2.7511115113WOct 1 · 10:00D. Michna1.50111011113L. Jarocki2.50312621LOct 1 · 09:00D. Michna1.8311911642K. Kolodziej1.83911811113LOct 1 · 08:05D. Michna1.7313920J. Kuzmicz2.001511113WOct 1 · 06:30K. Wloczko1.83121165122D. Michna1.831041111143LOct 1 · 05:40L. Jarocki2.38911115113D. Michna1.5311841182WOct 1 · 04:55D. Michna1.91111117113A. Grela1.8079111192WOct 1 · 03:45D. Michna1.83915115113M. Jadczyk1.83111381182LSep 22 · 14:35J. Kosowski1.571111113D. Michna2.259860WSep 22 · 13:20D. Michna1.6711119113J. Braun2.10781171
A. Grela10
WOct 1 · 13:45L. Jarocki3.4011650A. Grela1.301311113LOct 1 · 12:05A. Grela1.50610100K. Wloczko2.501112123WOct 1 · 10:25A. Grela1.4441111113K. Kolodziej2.63114461WOct 1 · 09:40M. Rutkowski5.505970A. Grela1.131111113WOct 1 · 08:30L. Jarocki2.6391060A. Grela1.441112113WOct 1 · 07:20A. Grela1.441111113J. Kuzmicz2.634380WOct 1 · 06:05M. Jadczyk2.00111210882A. Grela1.739101211113LOct 1 · 04:55D. Michna1.91111117113A. Grela1.8079111192WOct 1 · 03:25K. Wloczko2.50125951A. Grela1.50101111113LSep 30 · 14:35A. Grela1.5011712482J. Kuzmicz2.504111011113
Upcoming Matches
D. Michna
Oct 1 · 14:35D. Michna1.83K. Wloczko1.83—Oct 2 · 03:45D. Michna2.00M. Jadczyk1.73—Oct 2 · 04:55D. Michna1.36G. Poliniewicz3.00—Oct 2 · 05:40D. Michna1.53J. Kuzmicz2.38—Oct 2 · 06:30D. Michna1.44J. Kwapis2.63—Oct 2 · 08:05D. Michna1.83K. Wloczko1.83—Oct 2 · 10:00D. Michna1.83K. Wloczko1.83—Oct 2 · 11:15D. Michna1.53J. Kuzmicz2.38—Oct 2 · 12:55D. Michna1.67K. Kolodziej2.10—Oct 2 · 14:10D. Michna2.00M. Jadczyk1.73—
A. Grela
Nothing scheduled
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.