TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Lukasz Jarocki vs Dawid Michna 3-2 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 1Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
911118114511118
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 05:35 and never touched: 62.0% is still 62.0%
Graded at full timeDawid Michna to win
62.0%
62.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingLukasz Jarocki above · Dawid Michna below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-4
Set 4 · 5-11
Set 5 · 11-8
Point 89 set 5, 11-8 · our read held Dawid Michna at 62.0%
89 points played in total.
H2H Lukasz Jarocki 11–16 Dawid Michna Lukasz Jarocki has won 11 of their 27 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 05:3562.0%Our read65.2%to break even at 1.533
short by 3.2pp65.2% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.533 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Michna
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
11-16 in 27
Michna
Wrong
gap of 5 in 27, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Jarocki 1790 vs Michna 1896
Michna
Wrong
both rated, 106 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Jarocki 60% vs Michna 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Jarocki 70% vs Michna 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Jarocki +3 · Michna +2
Jarocki
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% · Clear lean (leans Michna) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Jarocki form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJarocki 2.375 / Michna 1.533
Signal prob.38% / 62%
Edge (Michna)-3.2pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13222138
Jarocki2.38
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog46% won 56 of 122
Down 0–1, comes back27% 18 of 68
Down 0–2, comes back7% 2 of 30
Michna1.53
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite65% won 68 of 105
Up 2–0, closes it100% 32 of 32
Up 1–0, closes it80% 53 of 66
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeJarocki2wins
AwayMichna8wins
2 of 10 to a deciderMichna leads 8–2, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeJarockin = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayMichna88.9%8 of 9
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Jarocki1Michna9n = 10Michna took 9 of 10
S2Jarocki6Michna4n = 10Jarocki took 6 of 10
S3Jarocki4Michna6n = 10Michna took 6 of 10
S4Jarocki0Michna6n = 6Michna took 6 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricJarockiMichnaJ − MBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set19−8of 10Avg pointsper match33.436.7−3.3per matchSweeps13−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJarockiMichnaBasisWin rate · lifetime795 / 1417 vs 503 / 92256.1%54.6%795 / 1417 vs 503 / 922Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.639.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
MichnaJarocki 2.38/Michna 1.53
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
62%
Michna · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Jarocki won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 1 · 05:40L. Jarocki47911115113D. Michna4211841182
LApr 7 · 16:40L. Jarocki4111111091D. Michna4413812113
LJan 13 · 14:10L. Jarocki48911117102D. Michna47117611123
WJan 2 · 13:50L. Jarocki331111113D. Michna168440
LDec 26 · 16:55L. Jarocki33511981D. Michna4211911113
LDec 7 · 08:15L. Jarocki195770D. Michna331111113
LDec 6 · 10:10L. Jarocki27111060D. Michna361312113
LNov 24 · 07:15L. Jarocki29911451D. Michna3711411113
LNov 16 · 08:40L. Jarocki31481181D. Michna3611113113
LNov 4 · 07:35L. Jarocki2610880D. Michna341211113
L. Jarocki10
LOct 1 · 06:55L. Jarocki2.758950M. Jadczyk1.401111113WOct 1 · 04:10L. Jarocki1.831111143K. Wloczko1.8378120WOct 1 · 03:00L. Jarocki2.1011711113J. Kuzmicz1.67611931WSep 30 · 14:35M. Olbrycht2.2513119692L. Jarocki1.581181111113LSep 30 · 13:25L. Jarocki1.7211811542A. Spychala2.00911211113LSep 30 · 12:10G. Poliniewicz1.951211410113L. Jarocki1.75108111292WSep 30 · 10:55M. Rutkowski2.00811101182L. Jarocki1.70114128113WSep 30 · 09:20K. Kolodziej1.51105100L. Jarocki2.401211123LSep 30 · 08:05L. Jarocki2.25861171J. Kuzmicz1.5511119113WSep 30 · 06:25A. Spychala2.0071011101L. Jarocki1.7111128123
D. Michna10
WOct 1 · 06:30K. Wloczko1.83121165122D. Michna1.831041111143WOct 1 · 04:55D. Michna1.91111117113A. Grela1.8079111192WOct 1 · 03:45D. Michna1.83915115113M. Jadczyk1.83111381182LSep 22 · 14:35J. Kosowski1.571111113D. Michna2.259860WSep 22 · 13:20D. Michna1.6711119113J. Braun2.10781171LSep 22 · 12:05A. Wiecek1.831011119113D. Michna1.8312981192WSep 22 · 10:50K. Kolodziej2.1071210151D. Michna1.67111012173LSep 22 · 09:20G. Felkel2.00118911113D. Michna1.7381111792WSep 22 · 07:45J. Braun1.7366100D. Michna2.001111123WSep 22 · 06:55M. Murawski1.6771011101D. Michna2.1011129123
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