TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Lukasz Jarocki vs Marcin Jadczyk 0-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 1Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 4
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
811911511––––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 06:53 and never touched: 70.6% is still 70.6%
Graded at full timeMarcin Jadczyk to win
70.6%
70.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingLukasz Jarocki above · Marcin Jadczyk below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 5-11
Point 55 set 3, 5-11 · our read held Marcin Jadczyk at 70.6%
55 points played in total.
H2H Lukasz Jarocki 3–13 Marcin Jadczyk Lukasz Jarocki has won 3 of their 16 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 06:5370.6%Our read71.4%to break even at 1.40
short by 0.8pp71.4% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.40 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 3 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Jadczyk
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
3-13 in 16
Jadczyk
Correct
gap of 10 in 16, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Jarocki 1779 vs Jadczyk 1880
Jadczyk
Correct
both rated, 101 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Jarocki 80% vs Jadczyk 40%
Jarocki
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Jarocki 70% vs Jadczyk 40%
Jarocki
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Jarocki +4 · Jadczyk -1
Jarocki
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 71% · Strong (leans Jadczyk) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Jadczyk form (40%) is below what odds imply (71%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJarocki 2.75 / Jadczyk 1.40
Signal prob.29% / 71%
Edge (Jadczyk)-0.8pp
TT Elite Series · #13222105
Jarocki2.75
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 4
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog46% won 56 of 122
Down 0–1, comes back27% 18 of 68
Down 0–2, comes back7% 2 of 30
Jadczyk1.40
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
As favourite63% won 400 of 640
Up 2–0, closes it95% 203 of 213
Up 1–0, closes it82% 314 of 385
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeJarocki2wins
AwayJadczyk8wins
2 of 10 to a deciderJadczyk leads 8–2, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeJarockin = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayJadczyk100%8 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Jarocki2Jadczyk8n = 10Jadczyk took 8 of 10
S2Jarocki3Jadczyk7n = 10Jadczyk took 7 of 10
S3Jarocki3Jadczyk7n = 10Jadczyk took 7 of 10
S4Jarocki2Jadczyk3n = 5Jadczyk took 3 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricJarockiJadczykJarocki − JadczykBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match31.235.9−4.7per matchSweeps14−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJarockiJadczykBasisWin rate · lifetime795 / 1418 vs 980 / 168756.1%58.1%795 / 1418 vs 980 / 1687Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match37.639.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
JadczykJarocki 2.75/Jadczyk 1.40
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
70.6%
Jadczyk · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Jadczyk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 1 · 06:55L. Jarocki228950M. Jadczyk331111113
LMay 26 · 06:10L. Jarocki4384111192M. Jadczyk42111118113
LMay 14 · 07:40L. Jarocki4011111081M. Jadczyk4113512113
WApr 16 · 06:10L. Jarocki331111113M. Jadczyk183780
LApr 8 · 09:55L. Jarocki188730M. Jadczyk331111113
LMar 12 · 08:40L. Jarocki33811861M. Jadczyk3911611113
LMar 8 · 13:50L. Jarocki189630M. Jadczyk331111113
LFeb 27 · 12:35L. Jarocki2798100M. Jadczyk341111123
WFeb 26 · 14:15L. Jarocki45116611113M. Jadczyk4461111972
LSep 28 · 10:45L. Jarocki33891151M. Jadczyk4211119113
L. Jarocki10
WOct 1 · 05:40L. Jarocki2.38911115113D. Michna1.5311841182WOct 1 · 04:10L. Jarocki1.831111143K. Wloczko1.8378120WOct 1 · 03:00L. Jarocki2.1011711113J. Kuzmicz1.67611931WSep 30 · 14:35M. Olbrycht2.2513119692L. Jarocki1.581181111113LSep 30 · 13:25L. Jarocki1.7211811542A. Spychala2.00911211113LSep 30 · 12:10G. Poliniewicz1.951211410113L. Jarocki1.75108111292WSep 30 · 10:55M. Rutkowski2.00811101182L. Jarocki1.70114128113WSep 30 · 09:20K. Kolodziej1.51105100L. Jarocki2.401211123LSep 30 · 08:05L. Jarocki2.25861171J. Kuzmicz1.5511119113WSep 30 · 06:25A. Spychala2.0071011101L. Jarocki1.7111128123
M. Jadczyk10
LOct 1 · 06:05M. Jadczyk2.00111210882A. Grela1.739101211113WOct 1 · 04:30M. Jadczyk1.731111133J. Kuzmicz2.0087110LOct 1 · 03:45D. Michna1.83915115113M. Jadczyk1.83111381182LSep 30 · 13:45A. Wiecek2.10791311113M. Jadczyk1.67111111442WSep 30 · 12:55A. Grela1.91411881M. Jadczyk1.8011511113LSep 30 · 12:05M. Jadczyk1.7311871182J. Kuzmicz2.00511115113WSep 30 · 10:25M. Jadczyk1.531111113M. Miastowski2.387630LSep 30 · 09:40P. David1.5781111113M. Jadczyk2.25116991WSep 30 · 07:45K. Wloczko2.507690M. Jadczyk1.501111113LSep 30 · 06:55A. Wiecek1.91111210113M. Jadczyk1.809101281
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