TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Dawid Michna vs Josef Braun 3-1 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 22Finished
Dawid Michna
Home
1.67
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
117118911117––
Josef Braun
Away
2.10
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:55 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJosef Braun to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingDawid Michna above · Josef Braun below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-7
Point 75 set 4, 11-7 — our read held Josef Braun at 54.0%
75 points played in total.
H2H Dawid Michna 21–21 Josef Braun Dead even across their 42 meetings.
Last 10 · 4–6Head to head
Same-day rematch · 6h before this match
Michna beat Braun 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:55What took a side0 for · 3 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Michna
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
21-21 in 42
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Michna 1882 vs Braun 1856
Michna
Correct
both rated, 26 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Michna 60% vs Braun 20%
Michna
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Michna 50% vs Braun 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Michna -1 · Braun -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
0 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Michna) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Braun form (20%) is below what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMichna 1.67 / Braun 2.10
Signal prob.57% / 43%
Edge (Michna)+1.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13169704
Michna1.67
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite68% won 79 of 116
Up 2–0, closes it100% 35 of 35
Up 1–0, closes it81% 61 of 75
Braun2.10
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog42% won 82 of 195
Down 0–1, comes back24% 25 of 104
Down 0–2, comes back5% 3 of 56
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMichna4wins
AwayBraun6wins
2 of 10 to a deciderBraun leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMichna50%4 of 8
AwayBraunn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Michna8Braun2n = 10Michna took 8 of 10
S2Michna3Braun7n = 10Braun took 7 of 10
S3Michna6Braun4n = 10Michna took 6 of 10
S4Michna1Braun7n = 8Braun took 7 of 8
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away550%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricMichnaBraunM − BBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match39.438.8+0.6per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMichnaBraunBasisWin rate · lifetime523 / 955 vs 511 / 97854.8%52.3%523 / 955 vs 511 / 978Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.237.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MichnaMichna 1.67/Braun 2.10
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
57%
Michna · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Michna won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 22 · 07:45D. Michna341111123J. Braun2266100
WJul 7 · 12:05D. Michna43111011113J. Braun32812931
WJul 7 · 08:05D. Michna531111128113J. Braun47713101162
LMay 24 · 13:40D. Michna4014411111J. Braun49121113133
WMay 24 · 09:35D. Michna381611113J. Braun2814770
LApr 22 · 04:20D. Michna36118981J. Braun3961111113
LApr 8 · 03:30D. Michna4391111121J. Braun4511137143
LMar 10 · 10:30D. Michna4110111191J. Braun4012413113
LMar 5 · 14:10D. Michna24116521J. Braun4291111113
LMar 5 · 06:00D. Michna4211711762J. Braun44311811113
D. Michna10
LSep 22 · 12:05A. Wiecek1.831011119113D. Michna1.8312981192WSep 22 · 10:50K. Kolodziej2.1071210151D. Michna1.67111012173LSep 22 · 09:20G. Felkel2.00118911113D. Michna1.7381111792WSep 22 · 07:45J. Braun1.7366100D. Michna2.001111123WSep 22 · 06:55M. Murawski1.6771011101D. Michna2.1011129123LSep 22 · 06:05D. Michna2.0091090A. Wiecek1.731112113LSep 22 · 04:30D. Michna1.805101161G. Felkel1.9111125113LSep 22 · 03:45J. Kosowski1.4412101211113D. Michna2.63101214882WSep 21 · 14:35M. Murawski1.7381112482D. Michna2.001181011113WSep 21 · 13:20D. Michna1.4461111113J. Kuzmicz2.63116791
J. Braun10
LSep 22 · 14:10K. Kolodziej2.251311113J. Braun1.5711670LSep 22 · 11:15G. Felkel1.361114113J. Braun3.0091260LSep 22 · 10:25A. Wiecek1.5781111113J. Braun2.25116691WSep 22 · 09:00J. Kosowski1.6161161192J. Braun2.20116114113LSep 22 · 07:45J. Braun1.7366100D. Michna2.001111123LSep 22 · 06:30J. Braun2.209640J. Kosowski1.611111113WSep 22 · 05:15J. Braun2.7591112113G. Felkel1.401171081WSep 22 · 04:10M. Murawski1.73611521J. Braun2.0011711113LSep 22 · 03:25J. Braun2.38111179112A. Wiecek1.53271111133LSep 15 · 14:10K. Strowski2.2011911113J. Braun1.61611961
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