TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Adrian Wiecek vs Dawid Michna 3-2 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 22Finished
Adrian Wiecek
Home
1.83
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1012119118911119
Dawid Michna
Away
1.83
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:24 and never touched — 54.9% is still 54.9%
Graded at full timeAdrian Wiecek to win
54.9%
54.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingAdrian Wiecek above · Dawid Michna below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 9-11
Set 5 · 11-9
Point 101 set 5, 11-9 — our read held Adrian Wiecek at 54.9%
101 points played in total.
H2H Adrian Wiecek 48–25 Dawid Michna Dawid Michna has won 25 of their 73 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 6h before this match
Wiecek beat Michna 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:24What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Michna
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
48-25 in 73
Wiecek
Correct
gap of 23 in 73, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Wiecek 1913 vs Michna 1892
Wiecek
Correct
both rated, 21 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Wiecek 80% vs Michna 60%
Wiecek
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Wiecek 50% vs Michna 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Wiecek +3 · Michna +1
Wiecek
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Wiecek) · live re-read · sealed at 55% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Wiecek form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsWiecek 1.83 / Michna 1.83
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Wiecek)+4.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13169588
Wiecek1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
Michna1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeWiecek6wins
AwayMichna4wins
4 of 10 to a deciderWiecek leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeWiecek71.4%5 of 7
AwayMichna66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Wiecek7Michna3n = 10Wiecek took 7 of 10
S2Wiecek5Michna5n = 10split evenly
S3Wiecek6Michna4n = 10Wiecek took 6 of 10
S4Wiecek6Michna3n = 9Wiecek took 6 of 9
S5Wiecek1Michna3n = 4Michna took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricWiecekMichnaW − MBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match44.741.4+3.3per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricWiecekMichnaBasisWin rate · lifetime769 / 1397 vs 523 / 95455.1%54.8%769 / 1397 vs 523 / 954Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match40.339.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
WiecekWiecek 1.83/Michna 1.83
Hit
What we said
54%
Wiecek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Wiecek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 22 · 06:05A. Wiecek341112113D. Michna2891090
WSep 21 · 09:20A. Wiecek47141011123D. Michna4312129101
LSep 21 · 03:25A. Wiecek4899111182D. Michna49111179113
WSep 9 · 10:00A. Wiecek48114119133D. Michna41411411112
WSep 9 · 06:55A. Wiecek4291111113D. Michna33118591
WSep 4 · 13:45A. Wiecek4211119113D. Michna37891191
LSep 4 · 08:30A. Wiecek399111181D. Michna4211713113
LSep 3 · 09:40A. Wiecek57139129142D. Michna5911111011163
LAug 18 · 10:25A. Wiecek47119101162D. Michna48911125113
WAug 18 · 03:25A. Wiecek43111110113D. Michna34861281
A. Wiecek10
WSep 22 · 10:25A. Wiecek1.5781111113J. Braun2.25116691WSep 22 · 09:40K. Kolodziej2.38101060A. Wiecek1.531212113WSep 22 · 08:30M. Murawski1.831121191A. Wiecek1.8391113113LSep 22 · 07:20A. Wiecek1.80131188132G. Felkel1.911161111153WSep 22 · 06:05D. Michna2.0091090A. Wiecek1.731112113LSep 22 · 04:55J. Kosowski2.0011511113A. Wiecek1.73611391WSep 22 · 03:25J. Braun2.38111179112A. Wiecek1.53271111133LSep 21 · 13:45A. Wiecek2.38981131M. Jadczyk1.5311119113LSep 21 · 12:30A. Wiecek1.918101171G. Felkel1.8011128113LSep 21 · 11:15A. Wiecek1.618121171J. Kuzmicz2.2011145113
D. Michna10
WSep 22 · 10:50K. Kolodziej2.1071210151D. Michna1.67111012173LSep 22 · 09:20G. Felkel2.00118911113D. Michna1.7381111792WSep 22 · 07:45J. Braun1.7366100D. Michna2.001111123WSep 22 · 06:55M. Murawski1.6771011101D. Michna2.1011129123LSep 22 · 06:05D. Michna2.0091090A. Wiecek1.731112113LSep 22 · 04:30D. Michna1.805101161G. Felkel1.9111125113LSep 22 · 03:45J. Kosowski1.4412101211113D. Michna2.63101214882WSep 21 · 14:35M. Murawski1.7381112482D. Michna2.001181011113WSep 21 · 13:20D. Michna1.4461111113J. Kuzmicz2.63116791LSep 21 · 12:05M. Jadczyk1.6712914113D. Michna2.1010111271
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