TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 21Finished
Adrian Wiecek
Home
1.62
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
8111214115711––
Jakub Kuzmicz
Away
2.20
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:59 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeAdrian Wiecek to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingAdrian Wiecek above · Jakub Kuzmicz below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 12-14
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 7-11
Point 79 set 4, 7-11 — our read held Adrian Wiecek at 54.0%
79 points played in total.
H2H Adrian Wiecek 5–4 Jakub Kuzmicz Jakub Kuzmicz has won 4 of their 9 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 4h before this match
Kuzmicz beat Wiecek 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:59What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Wiecek
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-4 in 9
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Wiecek 1920 vs Kuzmicz 1916
Wiecek
Wrong
both rated, 3 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Wiecek 80% vs Kuzmicz 40%
Wiecek
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Wiecek 70% vs Kuzmicz 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Wiecek +3 · Kuzmicz -1
Wiecek
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Wiecek) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Wiecek form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsWiecek 1.61 / Kuzmicz 2.20
Signal prob.56% / 44%
Edge (Wiecek)-1.8pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13165421
Wiecek1.61
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite65% won 172 of 266
Up 2–0, closes it94% 65 of 69
Up 1–0, closes it80% 123 of 154
Kuzmicz2.20
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog52% won 122 of 236
Down 0–1, comes back33% 36 of 108
Down 0–2, comes back11% 4 of 36
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 9 meetings
HomeWiecek5wins
AwayKuzmicz4wins
7 of 9 to a deciderWiecek leads 5–4, and 7 of those 9 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeWiecek50%2 of 4
AwayKuzmicz40%2 of 5
Set by set, in these 9 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Wiecek4Kuzmicz5n = 9Kuzmicz took 5 of 9
S2Wiecek5Kuzmicz4n = 9Wiecek took 5 of 9
S3Wiecek4Kuzmicz5n = 9Kuzmicz took 5 of 9
S4Wiecek7Kuzmicz2n = 9Wiecek took 7 of 9
S5Wiecek3Kuzmicz4n = 7Kuzmicz took 4 of 7
How those 9 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 9 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home222%
3–2Decider, home333%
2–3Decider, away444%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 9 meetings
MetricWiecekKuzmiczW − KBasisWins54+1in 9 meetingsFirst set45−1of 9Avg pointsper match49.744.8+4.9per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricWiecekKuzmiczBasisWin rate · lifetime765 / 1389 vs 697 / 120555.1%57.8%765 / 1389 vs 697 / 1205Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match40.340.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
WiecekWiecek 1.61/Kuzmicz 2.20
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
55.9%
Wiecek · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Kuzmicz won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
LSep 21 · 07:20A. Wiecek47911111152J. Kuzmicz48118135113
LAug 24 · 11:40A. Wiecek50111091192J. Kuzmicz45712114113
WAug 24 · 05:40A. Wiecek541171411113J. Kuzmicz5191116782
LApr 6 · 11:35A. Wiecek501110811102J. Kuzmicz47812114123
WMar 30 · 16:20A. Wiecek4351311143J. Kuzmicz4011116121
WMar 11 · 15:00A. Wiecek43111011113J. Kuzmicz26812331
WMar 11 · 09:45A. Wiecek507111110113J. Kuzmicz4411691262
WFeb 23 · 21:10A. Wiecek539111111113J. Kuzmicz4211861342
LFeb 18 · 20:45A. Wiecek571011131582J. Kuzmicz601291513113
A. Wiecek10
WSep 21 · 10:00M. Murawski1.91911591A. Wiecek1.8011911113WSep 21 · 09:20A. Wiecek1.57141011123D. Michna2.2512129101WSep 21 · 08:30G. Felkel2.001171071A. Wiecek1.7391112113LSep 21 · 07:20A. Wiecek1.67911111152J. Kuzmicz2.10118135113WSep 21 · 06:05M. Jadczyk1.671091181A. Wiecek2.1012115113WSep 21 · 04:55M. Murawski2.1011611582A. Wiecek1.67811811113LSep 21 · 03:25D. Michna2.00111179113A. Wiecek1.7399111182WSep 15 · 13:45A. Wiecek2.2011119113M. Jadczyk1.61991181WSep 15 · 12:30A. Wiecek1.50911118113K. Strowski2.5011491172LSep 15 · 11:15A. Wiecek1.6781191182J. Braun2.10116113113
J. Kuzmicz10
LSep 21 · 10:25M. Jadczyk1.671111113J. Kuzmicz2.109770WSep 21 · 09:00M. Murawski1.73811101152J. Kuzmicz2.00116128113LSep 21 · 08:05M. Murawski1.7361111123J. Kuzmicz2.001177101WSep 21 · 07:20A. Wiecek1.67911111152J. Kuzmicz2.10118135113LSep 21 · 05:15D. Michna1.401311113J. Kuzmicz2.7511560WSep 21 · 04:30M. Jadczyk1.67119671J. Kuzmicz2.1081111113WSep 21 · 03:00G. Felkel1.5368111192J. Kuzmicz2.38111159113WSep 18 · 15:45J. Kuzmicz1.2612811113J. Stecyszyn2.951011781LSep 18 · 14:10J. Kuzmicz2.20119101142J. Kosowski1.61711129113WSep 18 · 12:55J. Kuzmicz3.00111656113D. Wederlich1.36714111162
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