TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Dawid Michna vs Lukasz Jarocki 3-1 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 1Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1131012116112––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:58 and never touched: 64.1% is still 64.1%
Graded at full timeDawid Michna to win
64.1%
64.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingDawid Michna above · Lukasz Jarocki below
Set 1 · 11-3
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 11-2
Point 66 set 4, 11-2 · our read held Dawid Michna at 64.1%
66 points played in total.
H2H Dawid Michna 16–11 Lukasz Jarocki Lukasz Jarocki has won 11 of their 27 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:5864.1%Our read66.7%to break even at 1.50
short by 2.6pp66.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.50 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Michna
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
16-11 in 27
Michna
Correct
gap of 5 in 27, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Michna 1869 vs Jarocki 1755
Michna
Correct
both rated, 114 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Michna 40% vs Jarocki 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Michna 50% vs Jarocki 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Michna -2 · Jarocki -3
Jarocki
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% · Clear lean (leans Michna) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Michna form (40%) is below what odds imply (67%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMichna 1.50 / Jarocki 2.50
Signal prob.64% / 36%
Edge (Michna)-2.6pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13222204
Michna1.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite65% won 68 of 105
Up 2–0, closes it100% 32 of 32
Up 1–0, closes it80% 53 of 66
Jarocki2.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog46% won 56 of 122
Down 0–1, comes back27% 18 of 68
Down 0–2, comes back7% 2 of 30
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMichna8wins
AwayJarocki2wins
2 of 10 to a deciderMichna leads 8–2, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMichna88.9%8 of 9
AwayJarockin = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Michna9Jarocki1n = 10Michna took 9 of 10
S2Michna4Jarocki6n = 10Jarocki took 6 of 10
S3Michna6Jarocki4n = 10Michna took 6 of 10
S4Michna6Jarocki0n = 6Michna took 6 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricMichnaJarockiM − JBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set91+8of 10Avg pointsper match36.733.4+3.3per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMichnaJarockiBasisWin rate · lifetime501 / 921 vs 795 / 142054.4%56%501 / 921 vs 795 / 1420Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.237.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
MichnaMichna 1.50/Jarocki 2.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
64.1%
Michna · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Michna won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 1 · 05:40D. Michna4211841182L. Jarocki47911115113
WApr 7 · 16:40D. Michna4413812113L. Jarocki4111111091
WJan 13 · 14:10D. Michna47117611123L. Jarocki48911117102
LJan 2 · 13:50D. Michna168440L. Jarocki331111113
WDec 26 · 16:55D. Michna4211911113L. Jarocki33511981
WDec 7 · 08:15D. Michna331111113L. Jarocki195770
WDec 6 · 10:10D. Michna361312113L. Jarocki27111060
WNov 24 · 07:15D. Michna3711411113L. Jarocki29911451
WNov 16 · 08:40D. Michna3611113113L. Jarocki31481181
WNov 4 · 07:35D. Michna341211113L. Jarocki2610880
D. Michna10
LOct 1 · 09:00D. Michna1.8311911642K. Kolodziej1.83911811113LOct 1 · 08:05D. Michna1.7313920J. Kuzmicz2.001511113WOct 1 · 06:30K. Wloczko1.83121165122D. Michna1.831041111143LOct 1 · 05:40L. Jarocki2.38911115113D. Michna1.5311841182WOct 1 · 04:55D. Michna1.91111117113A. Grela1.8079111192WOct 1 · 03:45D. Michna1.83915115113M. Jadczyk1.83111381182LSep 22 · 14:35J. Kosowski1.571111113D. Michna2.259860WSep 22 · 13:20D. Michna1.6711119113J. Braun2.10781171LSep 22 · 12:05A. Wiecek1.831011119113D. Michna1.8312981192WSep 22 · 10:50K. Kolodziej2.1071210151D. Michna1.67111012173
L. Jarocki10
LOct 1 · 09:20L. Jarocki1.9199100K. Wloczko1.801111123LOct 1 · 08:30L. Jarocki2.6391060A. Grela1.441112113LOct 1 · 06:55L. Jarocki2.758950M. Jadczyk1.401111113WOct 1 · 05:40L. Jarocki2.38911115113D. Michna1.5311841182WOct 1 · 04:10L. Jarocki1.831111143K. Wloczko1.8378120WOct 1 · 03:00L. Jarocki2.1011711113J. Kuzmicz1.67611931WSep 30 · 14:35M. Olbrycht2.2513119692L. Jarocki1.581181111113LSep 30 · 13:25L. Jarocki1.7211811542A. Spychala2.00911211113LSep 30 · 12:10G. Poliniewicz1.951211410113L. Jarocki1.75108111292WSep 30 · 10:55M. Rutkowski2.00811101182L. Jarocki1.70114128113
Upcoming Matches
D. Michna
Oct 1 · 11:40D. Michna1.40M. Rutkowski2.75—Oct 1 · 12:55D. Michna2.00A. Grela1.73—Oct 1 · 14:35D. Michna1.83K. Wloczko1.83—Oct 2 · 03:45D. Michna2.00M. Jadczyk1.73—Oct 2 · 04:55D. Michna1.36G. Poliniewicz3.00—Oct 2 · 06:30D. Michna1.44J. Kwapis2.63—Oct 2 · 11:15D. Michna1.53J. Kuzmicz2.38—Oct 2 · 15:45D. Michna1.44J. Kwapis2.63—
L. Jarocki
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