TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Artur Grela vs Maksymilian Miastowski 2-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 7Finished
Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
911117115511511
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 03:19 and never touched: 54.5% is still 54.5%
Graded at full timeArtur Grela to win
54.5%
54.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingArtur Grela above · Maksymilian Miastowski below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 5-11
Set 5 · 5-11
Point 86 set 5, 5-11 · our read held Artur Grela at 54.5%
86 points played in total.
H2H Artur Grela 32–30 Maksymilian Miastowski Maksymilian Miastowski has won 30 of their 62 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 03:1954.5%Our read57.9%to break even at 1.727
short by 3.4pp57.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.727 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Grela
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
32-30 in 62
Grela
Wrong
gap of 2 in 62, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Grela 1944 vs Miastowski 1864
Grela
Wrong
both rated, 80 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Grela 80% vs Miastowski 40%
Grela
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Grela 80% vs Miastowski 30%
Grela
Wrong
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Grela +2 · Miastowski +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% · Coin-flip (leans Grela) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Grela form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsGrela 1.727 / Miastowski 2.00
Signal prob.55% / 46%
Edge (Grela)-3.4pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13253478
Grela1.73
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 6 days ago (Oct 01)
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite68% won 174 of 256
Up 2–0, closes it96% 65 of 68
Up 1–0, closes it76% 115 of 151
Miastowski2.00
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog43% won 78 of 180
Down 0–1, comes back29% 31 of 106
Down 0–2, comes back11% 7 of 64
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeGrela7wins
AwayMiastowski3wins
3 of 10 to a deciderGrela leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeGrela80%4 of 5
AwayMiastowski40%2 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Grela5Miastowski5n = 10split evenly
S2Grela7Miastowski3n = 10Grela took 7 of 10
S3Grela5Miastowski5n = 10split evenly
S4Grela8Miastowski1n = 9Grela took 8 of 9
S5Grela1Miastowski2n = 3Miastowski took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home550%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricGrelaMiastowskiG − MBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match42.736.1+6.6per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricGrelaMiastowskiBasisWin rate · lifetime635 / 1224 vs 588 / 113651.9%51.8%635 / 1224 vs 588 / 1136Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.639.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
GrelaGrela 1.73/Miastowski 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54.5%
Grela · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Miastowski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 30 · 09:00A. Grela4291111113M. Miastowski29119361
LSep 30 · 08:05A. Grela344111181M. Miastowski4311813113
WSep 10 · 05:50A. Grela3711114113M. Miastowski28291161
WJun 9 · 10:25A. Grela4611717113M. Miastowski396111571
WJun 9 · 06:40A. Grela331111113M. Miastowski229850
WJun 8 · 12:25A. Grela48111511113M. Miastowski361313641
LJun 8 · 04:00A. Grela4411761192M. Miastowski42411115113
WMay 21 · 15:35A. Grela521011911113M. Miastowski4412811582
LMay 21 · 07:40A. Grela4899111182M. Miastowski42111118113
WApr 9 · 13:40A. Grela4312119113M. Miastowski361081171
A. Grela10
WOct 7 · 04:10P. Chodorski2.381110981A. Grela1.5391211113WOct 1 · 13:45L. Jarocki3.4011650A. Grela1.301311113WOct 1 · 12:55D. Michna2.00115101192A. Grela1.73911120113LOct 1 · 12:05A. Grela1.50610100K. Wloczko2.501112123WOct 1 · 10:25A. Grela1.4441111113K. Kolodziej2.63114461WOct 1 · 09:40M. Rutkowski5.505970A. Grela1.131111113WOct 1 · 08:30L. Jarocki2.6391060A. Grela1.441112113WOct 1 · 07:20A. Grela1.441111113J. Kuzmicz2.634380WOct 1 · 06:05M. Jadczyk2.00111210882A. Grela1.739101211113LOct 1 · 04:55D. Michna1.91111117113A. Grela1.8079111192
M. Miastowski10
WOct 6 · 14:10M. Miastowski2.25111311113A. Wiecek1.577111381LOct 6 · 12:30J. Kosowski1.501210118123M. Miastowski2.501012911102LOct 6 · 11:40P. Chodorski2.1041111113M. Miastowski1.67119991WOct 6 · 10:50M. Miastowski1.571111113J. Braun2.252540LOct 6 · 09:40M. Miastowski2.258770G. Felkel1.571111113LOct 6 · 08:05J. Braun2.001411119113M. Miastowski1.7316491192LOct 6 · 07:20G. Felkel1.5341211113M. Miastowski2.381110581LOct 6 · 05:15A. Wiecek1.449111411183M. Miastowski2.63118166162LOct 6 · 04:30M. Jadczyk1.7341111123M. Miastowski2.001155101WOct 6 · 03:00J. Kosowski1.5317114572M. Miastowski2.381581111113
Upcoming Matches
A. Grela
Oct 7 · 05:15A. Grela1.83D. Michna1.83—Oct 7 · 06:30A. Grela1.36J. Stecyszyn3.00—Oct 7 · 07:45A. Grela1.83M. Jadczyk1.83—Oct 7 · 09:00A. Grela1.80D. Michna1.91—Oct 7 · 10:00A. Grela1.80P. Chodorski1.91—Oct 7 · 11:40A. Grela1.61M. Miastowski2.20—Oct 7 · 12:55A. Grela1.83M. Jadczyk1.83—Oct 7 · 14:35A. Grela2.63J. Folwarski1.44—
M. Miastowski
Oct 7 · 06:05M. Miastowski2.00M. Jadczyk1.73—Oct 7 · 07:20M. Miastowski1.73D. Michna2.00—Oct 7 · 08:30M. Miastowski2.20P. Chodorski1.61—Oct 7 · 09:40M. Miastowski2.00M. Jadczyk1.73—Oct 7 · 10:50M. Miastowski3.75J. Folwarski1.25—Oct 7 · 11:40M. Miastowski2.20A. Grela1.61—Oct 7 · 12:30M. Miastowski2.20P. Chodorski1.61—Oct 7 · 14:10M. Miastowski1.73D. Michna2.00—
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