TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Maksymilian Miastowski vs Grzegorz Felkel 0-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 6Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 4
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
811711711––––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:35 and never touched: 62.4% is still 62.4%
Graded at full timeGrzegorz Felkel to win
62.4%
62.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingMaksymilian Miastowski above · Grzegorz Felkel below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 7-11
Point 55 set 3, 7-11 · our read held Grzegorz Felkel at 62.4%
55 points played in total.
H2H Maksymilian Miastowski 17–40 Grzegorz Felkel Maksymilian Miastowski has won 17 of their 57 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 2h before this match
Felkel beat Miastowski 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:3562.4%Our read63.7%to break even at 1.571
short by 1.3pp63.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.571 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Felkel
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
17-40 in 57
Felkel
Correct
gap of 23 in 57, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Miastowski 1874 vs Felkel 1867
Miastowski
Wrong
both rated, 7 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Miastowski 20% vs Felkel 60%
Felkel
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Miastowski 40% vs Felkel 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Miastowski -4 · Felkel -1
Miastowski
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% · Clear lean (leans Felkel) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Miastowski form (20%) is below what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMiastowski 2.25 / Felkel 1.571
Signal prob.38% / 62%
Edge (Felkel)-1.3pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13248536
Miastowski2.25
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog43% won 78 of 180
Down 0–1, comes back29% 31 of 106
Down 0–2, comes back11% 7 of 64
Felkel1.57
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite60% won 204 of 339
Up 2–0, closes it93% 112 of 121
Up 1–0, closes it79% 150 of 191
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMiastowski2wins
AwayFelkel8wins
3 of 10 to a deciderFelkel leads 8–2, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMiastowski28.6%2 of 7
AwayFelkel100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Miastowski7Felkel3n = 10Miastowski took 7 of 10
S2Miastowski1Felkel9n = 10Felkel took 9 of 10
S3Miastowski3Felkel7n = 10Felkel took 7 of 10
S4Miastowski3Felkel6n = 9Felkel took 6 of 9
S5Miastowski1Felkel2n = 3Felkel took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away550%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricMiastowskiFelkelM − FBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match37.242.1−4.9per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMiastowskiFelkelBasisWin rate · lifetime586 / 1131 vs 679 / 116151.8%58.5%586 / 1131 vs 679 / 1161Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match39.437.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
FelkelMiastowski 2.25/Felkel 1.57
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
62.4%
Felkel · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Felkel won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 6 · 07:20M. Miastowski341110581G. Felkel3841211113
LSep 16 · 10:00M. Miastowski4395111172G. Felkel49111197113
WSep 16 · 05:40M. Miastowski44111156113G. Felkel4486111182
WSep 10 · 08:10M. Miastowski4411811143G. Felkel342119121
LJul 19 · 13:20M. Miastowski333101191G. Felkel4311129113
LJul 19 · 07:45M. Miastowski187650G. Felkel331111113
LJul 18 · 14:10M. Miastowski34119681G. Felkel4291111113
LMay 2 · 14:30M. Miastowski331141081G. Felkel4061112113
LMay 2 · 05:25M. Miastowski4911791482G. Felkel538111112113
LApr 7 · 15:10M. Miastowski401391081G. Felkel45111112113
M. Miastowski10
LOct 6 · 08:05J. Braun2.001411119113M. Miastowski1.7316491192LOct 6 · 07:20G. Felkel1.5341211113M. Miastowski2.381110581LOct 6 · 05:15A. Wiecek1.449111411183M. Miastowski2.63118166162LOct 6 · 04:30M. Jadczyk1.7341111123M. Miastowski2.001155101WOct 6 · 03:00J. Kosowski1.5317114572M. Miastowski2.381581111113WSep 30 · 14:10P. David1.6111412882M. Miastowski2.205111011113WSep 30 · 13:20J. Kuzmicz1.6711512752M. Miastowski2.109111011113WSep 30 · 11:15A. Wiecek1.61129961M. Miastowski2.20101111113LSep 30 · 10:25M. Jadczyk1.531111113M. Miastowski2.387630LSep 30 · 09:00A. Grela1.6791111113M. Miastowski2.10119361
G. Felkel10
WOct 6 · 10:25G. Felkel1.731111113A. Wiecek2.006850LOct 6 · 08:30J. Kosowski1.831111113G. Felkel1.837760WOct 6 · 07:20G. Felkel1.5341211113M. Miastowski2.381110581WOct 6 · 06:05M. Jadczyk1.912870G. Felkel1.801111113WOct 6 · 04:55J. Braun2.509811131G. Felkel1.5011119153LOct 6 · 03:25A. Wiecek1.9111811113G. Felkel1.80811891LOct 5 · 14:35G. Felkel1.91115991J. Kosowski1.8071111113WOct 5 · 12:55G. Felkel1.8011811113A. Wiecek1.91711791WOct 5 · 11:40G. Felkel1.5761111163K. Kolodziej2.251139141LOct 5 · 10:00G. Felkel2.20531191P. David1.6111119113
Upcoming Matches
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Oct 6 · 11:40M. Miastowski2.38P. Chodorski1.53—Oct 6 · 12:30M. Miastowski2.50J. Kosowski1.50—Oct 6 · 14:10M. Miastowski2.25A. Wiecek1.57—Oct 7 · 03:25M. Miastowski2.00A. Grela1.73—Oct 7 · 04:55M. Miastowski1.44J. Stecyszyn2.63—Oct 7 · 06:05M. Miastowski2.00M. Jadczyk1.73—Oct 7 · 07:20M. Miastowski1.73D. Michna2.00—Oct 7 · 09:40M. Miastowski2.00M. Jadczyk1.73—
G. Felkel
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