TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Grzegorz Felkel vs Krystian Kolodziej 3-1 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 5Finished
Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
6111131191614––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:36 and never touched: 60.1% is still 60.1%
Graded at full timeGrzegorz Felkel to win
60.1%
60.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingGrzegorz Felkel above · Krystian Kolodziej below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 11-3
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 16-14
Point 81 set 4, 16-14 · our read held Grzegorz Felkel at 60.1%
81 points played in total.
H2H Grzegorz Felkel 16–8 Krystian Kolodziej Krystian Kolodziej has won 8 of their 24 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:3660.1%Our read63.7%to break even at 1.571
short by 3.6pp63.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.571 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Felkel
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
16-8 in 24
Felkel
Correct
gap of 8 in 24, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Felkel 1830 vs Kolodziej 1798
Felkel
Correct
both rated, 33 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Felkel 20% vs Kolodziej 80%
Kolodziej
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Felkel 10% vs Kolodziej 50%
Kolodziej
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Felkel -2 · Kolodziej -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% · Slight lean (leans Felkel) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kolodziej form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsFelkel 1.571 / Kolodziej 2.25
Signal prob.60% / 40%
Edge (Felkel)-3.6pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13243413
Felkel1.57
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite60% won 201 of 333
Up 2–0, closes it93% 112 of 121
Up 1–0, closes it78% 148 of 189
Kolodziej2.25
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
56%takes the first set · 5 of 9
As underdog33% won 71 of 215
Down 0–1, comes back15% 17 of 116
Down 0–2, comes back3% 2 of 70
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeFelkel6wins
AwayKolodziej4wins
4 of 10 to a deciderFelkel leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeFelkel66.7%4 of 6
AwayKolodziej33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Felkel6Kolodziej3n = 9Felkel took 6 of 9
S2Felkel4Kolodziej5n = 9Kolodziej took 5 of 9
S3Felkel7Kolodziej2n = 9Felkel took 7 of 9
S4Felkel4Kolodziej1n = 5Felkel took 4 of 5
S5Felkel1Kolodziej2n = 3Kolodziej took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricFelkelKolodziejF − KBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set63+3of 9Avg pointsper match40.034.4+5.6per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricFelkelKolodziejBasisWin rate · lifetime674 / 1153 vs 1267 / 190358.5%66.6%674 / 1153 vs 1267 / 1903Avg sets wonper match2.22.4per matchAvg pointsper match37.938.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
FelkelFelkel 1.57/Kolodziej 2.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
60.1%
Felkel · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Felkel won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
WSep 22 · 12:30G. Felkel331111113K. Kolodziej279990
LSep 9 · 14:10G. Felkel2688100K. Kolodziej341111123
WAug 27 · 13:20G. Felkel341211113K. Kolodziej2110560
LAug 13 · 10:25G. Felkel4712781192K. Kolodziej481011115113
WJul 29 · 09:00G. Felkel4111811113K. Kolodziej34911861
WJul 24 · 13:45G. Felkel331111113K. Kolodziej199460
LJul 23 · 10:50G. Felkel521151115102K. Kolodziej57911817123
WJul 13 · 09:20G. Felkel45101311113K. Kolodziej351211841
WJul 12 · 14:10G. Felkel49791111113K. Kolodziej3511114272
G. Felkel10
LOct 5 · 10:00G. Felkel2.20531191P. David1.6111119113LOct 5 · 09:00G. Felkel1.6189100J. Kuzmicz2.201111123WOct 5 · 08:05G. Felkel1.3611912113K. Wloczko3.007111091LOct 5 · 06:30J. Kosowski1.83111119113G. Felkel1.8377111192LOct 5 · 05:40P. David1.611011116113G. Felkel2.2012651162LOct 5 · 04:55G. Felkel1.73121161492A. Wiecek2.001491112113LOct 5 · 03:45G. Felkel1.8081211772M. Jadczyk1.911110211113LSep 29 · 13:45G. Felkel1.83119111182J. Kosowski1.83911813113LSep 29 · 12:30G. Felkel1.5011118101P. Chodorski2.5013811123LSep 29 · 11:15G. Felkel1.5381141182J. Zandecki2.38119115113
K. Kolodziej10
WOct 5 · 12:30P. David1.40117111172K. Kolodziej2.75131138113LOct 5 · 10:50K. Kolodziej2.636940J. Kosowski1.441111113WOct 5 · 09:40K. Kolodziej2.50111412113A. Wiecek1.504121481WOct 4 · 13:45K. Kolodziej2.251111113M. Jadczyk1.579650WOct 4 · 12:30K. Kolodziej1.13111110113D. Kostal5.50431241WOct 4 · 11:15K. Kolodziej1.53711119113K. Wisniewski2.3811671132LOct 4 · 10:00P. David1.331211119113K. Kolodziej3.2514791162LOct 4 · 09:20K. Kolodziej1.731012111162K. Kapik2.00121458113WOct 4 · 08:30K. Kolodziej1.401112113D. Kostal2.7551040LOct 4 · 06:55K. Kolodziej2.380M. Jadczyk1.533
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