TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Jakub Kosowski vs Grzegorz Felkel 3-2 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 5Finished
Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
117117111911119
Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 6
The read, and what happenedsealed at 06:25 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJakub Kosowski to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingJakub Kosowski above · Grzegorz Felkel below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 1-11
Set 4 · 9-11
Set 5 · 11-9
Point 88 set 5, 11-9 · our read held Jakub Kosowski at 54.0%
88 points played in total.
H2H Jakub Kosowski 81–52 Grzegorz Felkel Grzegorz Felkel has won 52 of their 133 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 06:2554.0%Our read54.6%to break even at 1.833
short by 0.6pp54.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.833 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 2 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Felkel
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
81-52 in 133
Kosowski
Correct
gap of 29 in 133, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kosowski 1984 vs Felkel 1845
Kosowski
Correct
both rated, 139 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kosowski 80% vs Felkel 0%
Kosowski
Correct
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kosowski 80% vs Felkel 20%
Kosowski
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kosowski +1 · Felkel -6
Felkel
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Kosowski) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Felkel form (0%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKosowski 1.833 / Felkel 1.833
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Kosowski)-0.6pp
TT Elite Series · #13243126
Kosowski1.83
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
Felkel1.83
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 6
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKosowski6wins
AwayFelkel4wins
4 of 10 to a deciderKosowski leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKosowski75%3 of 4
AwayFelkel50%3 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kosowski4Felkel6n = 10Felkel took 6 of 10
S2Kosowski6Felkel4n = 10Kosowski took 6 of 10
S3Kosowski3Felkel7n = 10Felkel took 7 of 10
S4Kosowski5Felkel2n = 7Kosowski took 5 of 7
S5Kosowski3Felkel1n = 4Kosowski took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricKosowskiFelkelK − FBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match38.938.4+0.5per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKosowskiFelkelBasisWin rate · lifetime722 / 1221 vs 673 / 115059.1%58.5%722 / 1221 vs 673 / 1150Avg sets wonper match2.22.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.737.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KosowskiKosowski 1.83/Felkel 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Kosowski · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Kosowski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 5 · 06:30J. Kosowski43111119113G. Felkel4577111192
WSep 29 · 13:45J. Kosowski52911813113G. Felkel50119111182
WSep 29 · 08:30J. Kosowski331111113G. Felkel177730
WSep 28 · 10:50J. Kosowski49911711113G. Felkel4211511962
LSep 28 · 03:25J. Kosowski2210930G. Felkel341211113
LSep 22 · 10:00J. Kosowski3941161172G. Felkel48117118113
WSep 22 · 08:05J. Kosowski4011711113G. Felkel33811861
LSep 17 · 13:20J. Kosowski34129761G. Felkel43101111113
LSep 17 · 05:15J. Kosowski33141090G. Felkel391612113
WAug 19 · 09:20J. Kosowski4471511113G. Felkel331113811
J. Kosowski10
WOct 5 · 05:15J. Kosowski1.501111113K. Wloczko2.505860LOct 5 · 04:10P. David1.6751111143J. Kosowski2.101166121WOct 5 · 03:25J. Kosowski2.00111011123A. Wiecek1.737125101WSep 29 · 13:45G. Felkel1.83119111182J. Kosowski1.83911813113WSep 29 · 12:55A. Wiecek1.831011111172J. Kosowski1.83129813113WSep 29 · 12:05J. Kosowski2.10971111113P. David1.6711119892LSep 29 · 10:25J. Kosowski2.0089120J. Zandecki1.731111143WSep 29 · 09:40P. Chodorski2.001111117102J. Kosowski1.73132611123WSep 29 · 08:30G. Felkel2.007730J. Kosowski1.731111113WSep 29 · 07:20J. Kosowski1.671311113J. Zandecki2.1011970
G. Felkel10
LOct 5 · 05:40P. David1.611011116113G. Felkel2.2012651162LOct 5 · 04:55G. Felkel1.73121161492A. Wiecek2.001491112113LOct 5 · 03:45G. Felkel1.8081211772M. Jadczyk1.911110211113LSep 29 · 13:45G. Felkel1.83119111182J. Kosowski1.83911813113LSep 29 · 12:30G. Felkel1.5011118101P. Chodorski2.5013811123LSep 29 · 11:15G. Felkel1.5381141182J. Zandecki2.38119115113WSep 29 · 10:00A. Wiecek1.83721181G. Felkel1.8311113113LSep 29 · 09:20G. Felkel2.25712931P. David1.57111011113LSep 29 · 08:30G. Felkel2.007730J. Kosowski1.731111113WSep 29 · 06:55G. Felkel1.73611711113A. Wiecek2.0011311692
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