TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Grzegorz Felkel vs Adrian Wiecek 2-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 5Finished
Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 4
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
12141196111412911
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 03:50 and never touched: 54.1% is still 54.1%
Graded at full timeGrzegorz Felkel to win
54.1%
54.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
WrongSent to Pro: Grzegorz Felkel @ 1.73 · Lost
How it is goingGrzegorz Felkel above · Adrian Wiecek below
Set 1 · 12-14
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 14-12
Set 5 · 9-11
Point 109 set 5, 9-11 · our read held Grzegorz Felkel at 54.1%
109 points played in total.
H2H Grzegorz Felkel 73–54 Adrian Wiecek Adrian Wiecek has won 54 of their 127 meetings.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 03:5054.1%Our read57.9%to break even at 1.727
short by 3.8pp57.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.727 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 3 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Felkel
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
73-54 in 127
Felkel
Wrong
gap of 19 in 127, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Felkel 1869 vs Wiecek 1889
Wiecek
Correct
both rated, 20 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Felkel 20% vs Wiecek 60%
Wiecek
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Felkel 20% vs Wiecek 60%
Wiecek
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Felkel -4 · Wiecek -1
Felkel
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 0 silent, and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Felkel) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Felkel form (20%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsFelkel 1.727 / Wiecek 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Felkel)-3.8pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13243591
Felkel1.73
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 4
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite60% won 201 of 333
Up 2–0, closes it93% 112 of 121
Up 1–0, closes it78% 148 of 189
Wiecek2.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog38% won 74 of 193
Down 0–1, comes back17% 17 of 102
Down 0–2, comes back9% 4 of 46
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeFelkel7wins
AwayWiecek3wins
2 of 10 to a deciderFelkel leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeFelkel71.4%5 of 7
AwayWiecek33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Felkel7Wiecek3n = 10Felkel took 7 of 10
S2Felkel5Wiecek5n = 10split evenly
S3Felkel3Wiecek7n = 10Wiecek took 7 of 10
S4Felkel7Wiecek3n = 10Felkel took 7 of 10
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home550%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricFelkelWiecekF − WBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match40.138.5+1.6per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricFelkelWiecekBasisWin rate · lifetime673 / 1147 vs 747 / 136158.7%54.9%673 / 1147 vs 747 / 1361Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.940.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
FelkelFelkel 1.73/Wiecek 2.00
Miss
What we said
54.1%
Felkel · sealed before the serve
Sent to Pro: Grzegorz Felkel @ 1.73 · Lost
What happened
2–3
Wiecek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 29 · 10:00G. Felkel3611113113A. Wiecek28721181
WSep 29 · 06:55G. Felkel46611711113A. Wiecek4011311692
LSep 22 · 13:45G. Felkel33117871A. Wiecek4291111113
WSep 22 · 07:20G. Felkel541161111153A. Wiecek53131188132
WSep 21 · 12:30G. Felkel4211128113A. Wiecek368101171
LSep 21 · 08:30G. Felkel351171071A. Wiecek4391112113
WSep 9 · 11:15G. Felkel4311711143A. Wiecek399117121
WSep 9 · 04:10G. Felkel4111811113A. Wiecek29911451
WAug 3 · 09:00G. Felkel4111118113A. Wiecek35881181
LAug 3 · 05:15G. Felkel30611581A. Wiecek4011711113
G. Felkel10
LOct 5 · 06:30J. Kosowski1.83111119113G. Felkel1.8377111192LOct 5 · 05:40P. David1.611011116113G. Felkel2.2012651162LOct 5 · 03:45G. Felkel1.8081211772M. Jadczyk1.911110211113LSep 29 · 13:45G. Felkel1.83119111182J. Kosowski1.83911813113LSep 29 · 12:30G. Felkel1.5011118101P. Chodorski2.5013811123LSep 29 · 11:15G. Felkel1.5381141182J. Zandecki2.38119115113WSep 29 · 10:00A. Wiecek1.83721181G. Felkel1.8311113113LSep 29 · 09:20G. Felkel2.25712931P. David1.57111011113LSep 29 · 08:30G. Felkel2.007730J. Kosowski1.731111113WSep 29 · 06:55G. Felkel1.73611711113A. Wiecek2.0011311692
A. Wiecek10
LOct 5 · 06:05M. Jadczyk1.67111111113A. Wiecek2.10513991LOct 5 · 03:25J. Kosowski2.00111011123A. Wiecek1.737125101WSep 30 · 13:45A. Wiecek2.10791311113M. Jadczyk1.67111111442WSep 30 · 12:30A. Wiecek2.201071111113P. David1.6112119492LSep 30 · 11:15A. Wiecek1.61129961M. Miastowski2.20101111113WSep 30 · 10:00A. Grela2.25111131292A. Wiecek1.571381110113WSep 30 · 09:20A. Wiecek1.531111113J. Kuzmicz2.387980WSep 30 · 08:30A. Wiecek2.10811127113P. David1.67119101172LSep 29 · 10:00A. Wiecek1.83721181G. Felkel1.8311113113LSep 29 · 06:55G. Felkel1.73611711113A. Wiecek2.0011311692
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