TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Marcin Jadczyk vs Adrian Wiecek 3-1 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 5Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1151113119119––
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 06:01 and never touched: 56.2% is still 56.2%
Graded at full timeMarcin Jadczyk to win
56.2%
56.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingMarcin Jadczyk above · Adrian Wiecek below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 11-13
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 11-9
Point 80 set 4, 11-9 · our read held Marcin Jadczyk at 56.2%
80 points played in total.
H2H Marcin Jadczyk 68–47 Adrian Wiecek Adrian Wiecek has won 47 of their 115 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 06:0156.2%Our read60.0%to break even at 1.666
short by 3.8pp60.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.666 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Jadczyk
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
68-47 in 115
Jadczyk
Correct
gap of 21 in 115, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Jadczyk 1907 vs Wiecek 1886
Jadczyk
Correct
both rated, 21 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Jadczyk 40% vs Wiecek 60%
Wiecek
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Jadczyk 70% vs Wiecek 70%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Jadczyk -1 · Wiecek +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% · Slight lean (leans Jadczyk) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Wiecek form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJadczyk 1.666 / Wiecek 2.10
Signal prob.56% / 44%
Edge (Jadczyk)-3.8pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13243623
Jadczyk1.67
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
56%takes the first set · 5 of 9
As favourite63% won 405 of 645
Up 2–0, closes it95% 205 of 215
Up 1–0, closes it82% 317 of 389
Wiecek2.10
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog38% won 74 of 193
Down 0–1, comes back17% 17 of 102
Down 0–2, comes back9% 4 of 46
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeJadczyk5wins
AwayWiecek5wins
2 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeJadczyk83.3%5 of 6
AwayWiecek100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Jadczyk6Wiecek4n = 10Jadczyk took 6 of 10
S2Jadczyk3Wiecek7n = 10Wiecek took 7 of 10
S3Jadczyk8Wiecek2n = 10Jadczyk took 8 of 10
S4Jadczyk3Wiecek6n = 9Wiecek took 6 of 9
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricJadczykWiecekJ − WBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match40.838.7+2.1per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJadczykWiecekBasisWin rate · lifetime988 / 1693 vs 748 / 136358.4%54.9%988 / 1693 vs 748 / 1363Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.040.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
JadczykJadczyk 1.67/Wiecek 2.10
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
56.2%
Jadczyk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Jadczyk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 5 · 06:05M. Jadczyk44111111113A. Wiecek36513991
LSep 30 · 13:45M. Jadczyk41111111442A. Wiecek51791311113
LSep 30 · 06:55M. Jadczyk399101281A. Wiecek44111210113
WSep 21 · 13:45M. Jadczyk4211119113A. Wiecek31981131
LSep 21 · 06:05M. Jadczyk381091181A. Wiecek3912115113
LSep 15 · 13:45M. Jadczyk37991181A. Wiecek4211119113
WSep 14 · 12:55M. Jadczyk371111153A. Wiecek2438130
WSep 14 · 03:45M. Jadczyk541411117113A. Wiecek49121351182
LSep 9 · 13:45M. Jadczyk389111171A. Wiecek3911134113
WSep 4 · 15:00M. Jadczyk3811511113A. Wiecek32811581
M. Jadczyk10
WOct 5 · 06:55P. David2.0010690M. Jadczyk1.731211113LOct 5 · 04:30M. Jadczyk1.441113981K. Wloczko2.6391511113WOct 5 · 03:45G. Felkel1.8081211772M. Jadczyk1.911110211113LOct 4 · 13:45K. Kolodziej2.251111113M. Jadczyk1.579650LOct 4 · 12:55P. David1.731111113M. Jadczyk2.008260WOct 4 · 12:05M. Jadczyk1.251211113K. Kapik3.7510320WOct 4 · 10:25M. Jadczyk1.251111113K. Wisniewski3.754850WOct 4 · 09:40D. Kostal4.001181281M. Jadczyk1.2241114113WOct 4 · 07:45K. Szurlej4.50713681M. Jadczyk1.17111111113WOct 4 · 06:55K. Kolodziej2.380M. Jadczyk1.533
A. Wiecek10
WOct 5 · 07:20A. Wiecek1.36711116113K. Wloczko3.0011751182WOct 5 · 04:55G. Felkel1.73121161492A. Wiecek2.001491112113LOct 5 · 03:25J. Kosowski2.00111011123A. Wiecek1.737125101WSep 30 · 13:45A. Wiecek2.10791311113M. Jadczyk1.67111111442WSep 30 · 12:30A. Wiecek2.201071111113P. David1.6112119492LSep 30 · 11:15A. Wiecek1.61129961M. Miastowski2.20101111113WSep 30 · 10:00A. Grela2.25111131292A. Wiecek1.571381110113WSep 30 · 09:20A. Wiecek1.531111113J. Kuzmicz2.387980WSep 30 · 08:30A. Wiecek2.10811127113P. David1.67119101172WSep 30 · 06:55A. Wiecek1.91111210113M. Jadczyk1.809101281
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