TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Adrian Wiecek vs Petr David 3-2 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 30Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1012711119114119
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:26 and never touched: 59.3% is still 59.3%
Graded at full timePetr David to win
59.3%
59.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingAdrian Wiecek above · Petr David below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 11-4
Set 5 · 11-9
Point 95 set 5, 11-9 · our read held Petr David at 59.3%
95 points played in total.
H2H Adrian Wiecek 38–69 Petr David Adrian Wiecek has won 38 of their 107 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 4h before this match
Wiecek beat David 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:2659.3%Our read61.9%to break even at 1.615
short by 2.6pp61.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.615 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
David
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
38-69 in 107
David
Wrong
gap of 31 in 107, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Wiecek 1875 vs David 1935
David
Wrong
both rated, 60 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Wiecek 80% vs David 60%
Wiecek
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Wiecek 50% vs David 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Wiecek -1 · David +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% · Slight lean (leans David) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Wiecek form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsWiecek 2.20 / David 1.615
Signal prob.41% / 59%
Edge (David)-2.6pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13216200
Wiecek2.20
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog37% won 71 of 193
Down 0–1, comes back14% 14 of 101
Down 0–2, comes back4% 2 of 45
David1.61
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite67% won 239 of 358
Up 2–0, closes it96% 122 of 127
Up 1–0, closes it83% 180 of 218
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeWiecek3wins
AwayDavid7wins
1 of 10 to a deciderDavid leads 7–3, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeWiecek66.7%2 of 3
AwayDavid85.7%6 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Wiecek3David7n = 10David took 7 of 10
S2Wiecek4David6n = 10David took 6 of 10
S3Wiecek3David7n = 10David took 7 of 10
S4Wiecek2David5n = 7David took 5 of 7
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricWiecekDavidW − DBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match34.740.6−5.9per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricWiecekDavidBasisWin rate · lifetime751 / 1370 vs 655 / 99254.8%66%751 / 1370 vs 655 / 992Avg sets wonper match2.12.4per matchAvg pointsper match40.240.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
DavidWiecek 2.20/David 1.61
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
59.3%
David · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Wiecek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 30 · 08:30A. Wiecek49811127113P. David48119101172
LSep 29 · 14:35A. Wiecek2477100P. David341111123
LSep 29 · 03:45A. Wiecek2511770P. David351311113
LSep 8 · 08:05A. Wiecek378121161P. David4211146113
WSep 3 · 12:30A. Wiecek4112117113P. David351081161
WAug 4 · 10:25A. Wiecek4112116123P. David4010911101
LAug 4 · 03:25A. Wiecek2051050P. David341112113
LJul 1 · 13:45A. Wiecek4413118121P. David4915911143
LJul 1 · 08:30A. Wiecek29931161P. David4111118113
LJun 30 · 11:40A. Wiecek371115741P. David4891711113
A. Wiecek10
LSep 30 · 11:15A. Wiecek1.61129961M. Miastowski2.20101111113WSep 30 · 10:00A. Grela2.25111131292A. Wiecek1.571381110113WSep 30 · 09:20A. Wiecek1.531111113J. Kuzmicz2.387980WSep 30 · 08:30A. Wiecek2.10811127113P. David1.67119101172WSep 30 · 06:55A. Wiecek1.91111210113M. Jadczyk1.809101281LSep 30 · 05:40A. Wiecek1.731383131A. Grela2.00111111153LSep 30 · 04:10A. Wiecek1.5077100K. Wloczko2.501111123WSep 30 · 03:00A. Wiecek1.4491112113M. Miastowski2.631191071LSep 29 · 14:35A. Wiecek2.0077100P. David1.731111123LSep 29 · 12:55A. Wiecek1.831011111172J. Kosowski1.83129813113
P. David10
WSep 30 · 11:40A. Grela2.50871171P. David1.5011117113LSep 30 · 10:50P. David1.361291181J. Kuzmicz3.00101113113WSep 30 · 09:40P. David1.5781111113M. Jadczyk2.25116991LSep 30 · 08:30A. Wiecek2.10811127113P. David1.67119101172WSep 30 · 07:20P. David1.538111410113M. Miastowski2.38114121272LSep 30 · 06:05M. Jadczyk2.20111511113P. David1.61517961LSep 30 · 04:55A. Grela2.1012615113P. David1.6710111391WSep 30 · 03:25K. Wloczko3.40911991P. David1.3011811113WSep 29 · 14:35A. Wiecek2.0077100P. David1.731111123LSep 29 · 13:20P. David1.6710990J. Zandecki2.101211113
Upcoming Matches
A. Wiecek
Nothing scheduled
P. David
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