TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Artur Grela vs Petr David 1-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 30Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
811711117711––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:38 and never touched: 63.7% is still 63.7%
Graded at full timePetr David to win
63.7%
63.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingArtur Grela above · Petr David below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 7-11
Point 73 set 4, 7-11 · our read held Petr David at 63.7%
73 points played in total.
H2H Artur Grela 36–67 Petr David Artur Grela has won 36 of their 103 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:3863.7%Our read66.7%to break even at 1.50
short by 3.0pp66.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.50 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
David
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
36-67 in 103
David
Correct
gap of 31 in 103, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Grela 1955 vs David 1922
Grela
Wrong
both rated, 34 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Grela 60% vs David 40%
Grela
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Grela 70% vs David 40%
Grela
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Grela -1 · David -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% · Clear lean (leans David) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- David form (40%) is below what odds imply (67%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsGrela 2.50 / David 1.50
Signal prob.36% / 64%
Edge (David)-3.0pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13216107
Grela2.50
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog46% won 106 of 232
Down 0–1, comes back32% 43 of 134
Down 0–2, comes back10% 5 of 50
David1.50
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite67% won 239 of 358
Up 2–0, closes it96% 122 of 127
Up 1–0, closes it83% 180 of 218
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeGrela4wins
AwayDavid6wins
2 of 10 to a deciderDavid leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeGrela50%3 of 6
AwayDavid75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Grela6David4n = 10Grela took 6 of 10
S2Grela5David5n = 10split evenly
S3Grela4David6n = 10David took 6 of 10
S4Grela4David5n = 9David took 5 of 9
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricGrelaDavidG − DBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match36.840.7−3.9per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricGrelaDavidBasisWin rate · lifetime632 / 1224 vs 654 / 99151.6%66%632 / 1224 vs 654 / 991Avg sets wonper match2.12.4per matchAvg pointsper match38.640.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
DavidGrela 2.50/David 1.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
63.7%
David · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
David won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 30 · 04:55A. Grela4412615113P. David4310111391
LSep 24 · 12:55A. Grela341239101P. David44101111123
LSep 24 · 06:05A. Grela4391111572P. David45115711113
LSep 17 · 13:45A. Grela4112137542P. David5410111111113
LSep 17 · 08:30A. Grela194780P. David331111113
LAug 27 · 10:00A. Grela31851171P. David4011117113
WAug 27 · 05:40A. Grela4313127113P. David4011101181
WAug 5 · 10:00A. Grela4071111113P. David32118671
LAug 5 · 05:40A. Grela31124781P. David43101111113
WAug 1 · 09:00A. Grela4211119113P. David33941191
A. Grela10
LSep 30 · 10:00A. Grela2.25111131292A. Wiecek1.571381110113WSep 30 · 09:00A. Grela1.6791111113M. Miastowski2.10119361LSep 30 · 08:05A. Grela1.834111181M. Miastowski1.8311813113WSep 30 · 06:30K. Wloczko2.501151071A. Grela1.5061112113WSep 30 · 05:40A. Wiecek1.731383131A. Grela2.00111111153WSep 30 · 04:55A. Grela2.1012615113P. David1.6710111391WSep 30 · 03:45A. Grela1.73111211113M. Jadczyk2.00814981WSep 24 · 13:45A. Daniel2.38251111122A. Grela1.53111177143LSep 24 · 12:55P. David1.61101111123A. Grela2.201239101WSep 24 · 12:05A. Grela1.4411118113K. Kolodziej2.63991151
P. David10
LSep 30 · 10:50P. David1.361291181J. Kuzmicz3.00101113113WSep 30 · 09:40P. David1.5781111113M. Jadczyk2.25116991LSep 30 · 08:30A. Wiecek2.10811127113P. David1.67119101172WSep 30 · 07:20P. David1.538111410113M. Miastowski2.38114121272LSep 30 · 06:05M. Jadczyk2.20111511113P. David1.61517961LSep 30 · 04:55A. Grela2.1012615113P. David1.6710111391WSep 30 · 03:25K. Wloczko3.40911991P. David1.3011811113WSep 29 · 14:35A. Wiecek2.0077100P. David1.731111123LSep 29 · 13:20P. David1.6710990J. Zandecki2.101211113WSep 24 · 12:55P. David1.61101111123A. Grela2.201239101
Upcoming Matches
A. Grela
Sep 30 · 12:55A. Grela1.91M. Jadczyk1.80—Sep 30 · 14:35A. Grela1.50J. Kuzmicz2.50—Oct 1 · 03:25A. Grela1.50K. Wloczko2.50—Oct 1 · 06:05A. Grela2.00M. Jadczyk1.73—Oct 1 · 07:20A. Grela1.50J. Kuzmicz2.50—Oct 1 · 08:30A. Grela1.53L. Jarocki2.38—Oct 1 · 09:40A. Grela1.13M. Rutkowski5.50—Oct 1 · 10:25A. Grela1.44K. Kolodziej2.63—Oct 1 · 12:05A. Grela1.50K. Wloczko2.50—Oct 1 · 12:55A. Grela1.80D. Michna1.91—
P. David
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