TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Adrian Wiecek vs Artur Grela 1-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 30Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
13118113111315––
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 05:35 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeArtur Grela to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingAdrian Wiecek above · Artur Grela below
Set 1 · 13-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 3-11
Set 4 · 13-15
Point 85 set 4, 13-15 · our read held Artur Grela at 54.0%
85 points played in total.
H2H Adrian Wiecek 80–61 Artur Grela Artur Grela has won 61 of their 141 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 05:3554.0%Our read50.0%to break even at 2.00
clears by 4.0pp50.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 2.00 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 2 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Wiecek
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
80-61 in 141
Wiecek
Wrong
gap of 19 in 141, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Wiecek 1843 vs Grela 1959
Grela
Correct
both rated, 117 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Wiecek 20% vs Grela 80%
Grela
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Wiecek 30% vs Grela 70%
Grela
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Wiecek -1 · Grela +3
Grela
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Grela) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Grela form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsWiecek 1.727 / Grela 2.00
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Grela)+4.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13216125
Wiecek1.73
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite65% won 171 of 262
Up 2–0, closes it93% 62 of 67
Up 1–0, closes it81% 120 of 148
Grela2.00
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog46% won 106 of 232
Down 0–1, comes back32% 43 of 134
Down 0–2, comes back10% 5 of 50
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeWiecek7wins
AwayGrela3wins
6 of 10 to a deciderWiecek leads 7–3, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeWiecek60%3 of 5
AwayGrela20%1 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Wiecek5Grela5n = 10split evenly
S2Wiecek5Grela5n = 10split evenly
S3Wiecek7Grela3n = 10Wiecek took 7 of 10
S4Wiecek7Grela2n = 9Wiecek took 7 of 9
S5Wiecek3Grela3n = 6split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricWiecekGrelaW − GBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match44.741.7+3.0per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricWiecekGrelaBasisWin rate · lifetime752 / 1370 vs 630 / 122554.9%51.4%752 / 1370 vs 630 / 1225Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match40.238.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
GrelaWiecek 1.73/Grela 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Grela · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Grela won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 9 · 09:20A. Wiecek51117137133A. Grela484111111112
LSep 9 · 05:40A. Wiecek4496121162A. Grela511111108113
WSep 4 · 11:15A. Wiecek331111113A. Grela228680
LSep 4 · 05:40A. Wiecek4311311992A. Grela49811811113
WJul 15 · 10:00A. Wiecek48118711113A. Grela3631111292
LJul 15 · 05:40A. Wiecek4111661262A. Grela485111110113
WJun 17 · 13:45A. Wiecek4991316113A. Grela4411111481
WJun 17 · 08:30A. Wiecek44111111113A. Grela30137641
WJun 16 · 11:15A. Wiecek52711914113A. Grela51118111292
WJun 16 · 03:00A. Wiecek4261113123A. Grela3811611101
A. Wiecek10
LSep 30 · 04:10A. Wiecek1.5077100K. Wloczko2.501111123WSep 30 · 03:00A. Wiecek1.4491112113M. Miastowski2.631191071LSep 29 · 14:35A. Wiecek2.0077100P. David1.731111123LSep 29 · 12:55A. Wiecek1.831011111172J. Kosowski1.83129813113LSep 29 · 11:40A. Wiecek1.831081191P. Chodorski1.8312118113LSep 29 · 10:00A. Wiecek1.83721181G. Felkel1.8311113113LSep 29 · 09:00A. Wiecek2.00613641J. Zandecki1.73111111113WSep 29 · 07:45P. Chodorski1.83811991A. Wiecek1.8311911113LSep 29 · 06:55G. Felkel1.73611711113A. Wiecek2.0011311692WSep 29 · 06:05A. Wiecek1.67111311113J. Kosowski2.10615891
A. Grela10
WSep 30 · 04:55A. Grela2.1012615113P. David1.6710111391WSep 30 · 03:45A. Grela1.73111211113M. Jadczyk2.00814981WSep 24 · 13:45A. Daniel2.38251111122A. Grela1.53111177143LSep 24 · 12:55P. David1.61101111123A. Grela2.201239101WSep 24 · 12:05A. Grela1.4411118113K. Kolodziej2.63991151WSep 24 · 10:25A. Grela1.611111113J. Zandecki2.209650WSep 24 · 09:40S. Kolasa2.00781381A. Grela1.73111111113WSep 24 · 08:30S. Kolasa2.0031111762A. Grela1.73117811113LSep 24 · 07:20A. Grela1.679990J. Zandecki2.101111113LSep 24 · 06:05P. David1.61115711113A. Grela2.2091111572
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