TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Adrian Wiecek vs Jakub Kosowski 3-1 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 29Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1161315118119––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 06:01 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeAdrian Wiecek to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingAdrian Wiecek above · Jakub Kosowski below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 13-15
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 11-9
Point 84 set 4, 11-9 · our read held Adrian Wiecek at 54.0%
84 points played in total.
H2H Adrian Wiecek 71–74 Jakub Kosowski Adrian Wiecek has won 71 of their 145 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 06:01What took a side1 for · 4 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Wiecek
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
71-74 in 145
Kosowski
Wrong
gap of 3 in 145, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Wiecek 1905 vs Kosowski 1921
Kosowski
Wrong
both rated, 16 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Wiecek 40% vs Kosowski 60%
Kosowski
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Wiecek 60% vs Kosowski 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Wiecek -2 · Kosowski +3
Kosowski
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Wiecek) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kosowski form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsWiecek 1.67 / Kosowski 2.10
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Wiecek)-1.8pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13210076
Wiecek1.67
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite65% won 169 of 259
Up 2–0, closes it93% 62 of 67
Up 1–0, closes it81% 119 of 147
Kosowski2.10
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog43% won 33 of 77
Down 0–1, comes back24% 10 of 42
Down 0–2, comes back5% 1 of 22
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeWiecek4wins
AwayKosowski6wins
2 of 10 to a deciderKosowski leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeWiecek100%4 of 4
AwayKosowski100%6 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Wiecek4Kosowski6n = 10Kosowski took 6 of 10
S2Wiecek6Kosowski4n = 10Wiecek took 6 of 10
S3Wiecek5Kosowski5n = 10split evenly
S4Wiecek4Kosowski4n = 8split evenly
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricWiecekKosowskiW − KBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match40.041.1−1.1per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricWiecekKosowskiBasisWin rate · lifetime757 / 1373 vs 725 / 123755.1%58.6%757 / 1373 vs 725 / 1237Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match40.238.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
WiecekWiecek 1.67/Kosowski 2.10
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Wiecek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Wiecek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 29 · 06:05A. Wiecek46111311113J. Kosowski38615891
LSep 22 · 12:55A. Wiecek4061212101J. Kosowski47111014123
LSep 22 · 04:55A. Wiecek29611391J. Kosowski3811511113
LSep 8 · 09:20A. Wiecek4010118111J. Kosowski4212611133
WSep 8 · 05:40A. Wiecek4211146113J. Kosowski397121191
WAug 25 · 13:45A. Wiecek351211123J. Kosowski29109100
WAug 25 · 08:30A. Wiecek45111211113J. Kosowski38814791
LAug 24 · 14:35A. Wiecek48815114102J. Kosowski541113711123
LAug 24 · 06:30A. Wiecek2781180J. Kosowski351113113
LAug 18 · 11:15A. Wiecek4899121172J. Kosowski511111108113
A. Wiecek10
LSep 29 · 04:30A. Wiecek1.8394120J. Zandecki1.831111143LSep 29 · 03:45P. David1.611311113A. Wiecek2.2011770WSep 22 · 13:45G. Felkel1.91117871A. Wiecek1.8091111113LSep 22 · 12:55J. Kosowski2.10111014123A. Wiecek1.6761212101WSep 22 · 12:05A. Wiecek1.831011119113D. Michna1.8312981192WSep 22 · 10:25A. Wiecek1.5781111113J. Braun2.25116691WSep 22 · 09:40K. Kolodziej2.38101060A. Wiecek1.531212113WSep 22 · 08:30M. Murawski1.831121191A. Wiecek1.8391113113LSep 22 · 07:20A. Wiecek1.80131188132G. Felkel1.911161111153WSep 22 · 06:05D. Michna2.0091090A. Wiecek1.731112113
J. Kosowski10
WSep 29 · 04:55P. David1.918131161J. Kosowski1.8011155113WSep 29 · 03:25P. Chodorski2.00119861J. Kosowski1.7371111113WSep 28 · 14:35P. Chodorski2.386811101J. Kosowski1.5311117123LSep 28 · 13:20J. Kosowski1.735101191T. Spanik2.0011129113LSep 28 · 12:05M. Jadczyk2.256111110113J. Kosowski1.5711991292WSep 28 · 10:50G. Felkel2.2511511962J. Kosowski1.57911711113LSep 28 · 09:20K. Petas2.0011912113J. Kosowski1.735111091LSep 28 · 07:45J. Kosowski2.001011841M. Jadczyk1.7012711113LSep 28 · 06:30J. Kosowski1.671156111P. Chodorski2.1081111133WSep 22 · 12:55J. Kosowski2.10111014123A. Wiecek1.6761212101
Upcoming Matches
A. Wiecek
J. Kosowski
Sep 29 · 07:20J. Kosowski1.67J. Zandecki2.10—Sep 29 · 08:30J. Kosowski1.73G. Felkel2.00—Sep 29 · 09:40J. Kosowski1.73P. Chodorski2.00—Sep 29 · 10:25J. Kosowski1.67J. Zandecki2.10—Sep 29 · 12:05J. Kosowski1.80P. David1.91—Sep 29 · 12:55J. Kosowski2.10A. Wiecek1.67—Sep 29 · 13:45J. Kosowski1.73G. Felkel2.00—
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